Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Hurricanes Michael and Leslie, and Tropical Storm Nadine: October 9, Update A

Well double double, toil and trouble! 

We'll jump right in with Monster Michael in the Gulf of Mexico today, shall we?

Hurricane Michael
He is currently at 27.1N, 86.5W, heading N at 12mph. His wind speed is now up to 125mph, central pressure is 947mb. This makes him a strong cat 3 storm (cat 3 range: 111-130mph), so that wind shear didn't have too much of an impact and it looks like it is not as strong as it was yesterday. Combined with the warm sea surface waters (plus the upper ~50m is warmer than 26.5 deg C), this means that he can easily topple over into being a cat 4 storm (he's close enough now) and this is in agreement with the  updated intensity from the NHC. The eye has been pretty solid today and both the circulation throughout the troposphere, as well as the convection is very strong: 

It looks like the outer bands of rain have already reached the Florida coast and will soon be in Alabama and Mississippi too. There will be a small dampening down as he gets closer to land, but given the size of this storm, the rain will have saturated the ground ahead of him so I don't think he'll diminish before landfall. 

I've had a lot of queries from people along the west coast of Florida - you guys should be ok, other than the storm surge and a bit of rain. He's far away enough. It's the northern coast that is going to be the issue. 

I agree with the NHC on the forecast track as we are now less than a day from landfall. It looks like the Panama City area is the approximate area of landfall - the first storm of the season, Alberto, also made landfall in that part of Florida. 
Water levels (from at Apalachicola are almost 3 ft above normal: 
Along the west Florida coast, they are generally around 2-2.5 ft above normal, and to the west of the storm, in Mississippi and Louisiana, they are continuing to rise and are over 3 ft in some places. 

For those on the northern Gulf Coast, I know you have been watching this one carefully and will be ready. Please listen to your local emergency managers though, as they have the best information. And remember, run from the water, hide from the wind - meaning if you are in a storm surge area (or near a river that floods), get out if you can. Otherwise, hunker down in an inside room. The really strong convection brings tornadoes with it. Stay safe and good luck!!

Hurricane Leslie
They upgraded her back to a cat 1 hurricane with winds of 75mph, central pressure of 981mb, which makes sense to me from what I saw yesterday, given her circulation (vorticity). She still doesn't have as much convection, but I agree with the cat 1:
She is currently at 29.5N, 42.6W, heading SSE at 9mph. The track takes her towards Europe. Yes John S.... to the general Portugal area, but it doesn't look like she'll quite get that far so enjoy the surf!: 

Tropical Storm Nadine
The NHC upgraded this blobette from yesterday to TS Nadine. I approve. Winds are currently 45mph, central pressure is 1003mb. She is at 11.6N, 31W, heading NW at 8mph. Although they have her as a weak TS (TS range: 39-73mph), I think she is a bit stronger than that. Her convection is quite good, but more importantly, her circulation is now very good in the lower half of the troposphere. 

XPRIZE News featuring Moi (and the talented Drs. Chris K. and David M. and our rockstar teams)!
With all of these storms, I barely have time to tell you about the news today - we announced the location of the final round of testing for the Grand Prize of the Shell Ocean Discovery XPRIZE. Here's the lovely new video we released today to showcase the Finalists Teams:

And a BBC article "Seafloor mapping XPRIZE final will be in the Mediterranean, off Greece" (

And an IFLScience article "Location Revealed for the $7m XPRIZE Competition to Map the Ocean Floor next Month" (

Stay safe out there!! 

And as it's been a busy day today, I'll say ciao for now,

Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.

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