Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Tropical Storm Arthur: May 18, Update A

Oh no! I finished the ice cream!! I think it may be time for a carefully planned expedition to the grocery store very soon.

Tropical Storm King Arthur was pretty well behaved today. He has cleared North Carolina on time and is now in the Atlantic at 36.4N, 72.4W, heading ENE at a brisk 15mph. However, this heading northwards business is just a ploy to lull the Bermudians into a false sense of security because tomorrow he's going to start heading south again...

This seems like a reasonable track because of the atmospheric pressure fields. He is moving around a little high pressure system (in the northern hemisphere, storms move clockwise around high pressure). 

But the somewhat good news is that he will be moving away from the Gulf Stream tomorrow and over slightly cooler waters, so although his winds may be higher than 60mph tomorrow, his convection will decrease. You can see the Gulf Stream in this sea surface temperature map (the red hot current that flows along the Carolinas):
He may turn out to be mostly a blustery sort of day on Bermuda - just don't plan on playing golf on Thursday. We are already seeing the convection weakening in the satellite imagery. His appearance is even more ragged than it was yesterday and the areas of orange and yellow (the severest convection) are decreasing:

We also see wind shear really kick in today - the clouds are streaming off to the east you can see that the center is actually to the south of the clouds (it's quite faint). 

I think that's enough on TS King Arthur for today. Meanwhile, in the Indian Ocean, Cyclone Amphan is now a cat 4 storm with winds of 140mph and is heading for northern India/Bangladesh, due to make landfall in a day or so. They are preparing, of course, but it's a toughie. 

I'll be back tomorrow!
Ciao for now,

Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 

No comments: