The Blob: September 22 Update A

Just under 10 days with nary a blob or blobette in sight! I almost
forgot we were still in hurricane season. :)

So, as you may have heard, there's a blob out there. It's been dumping a
lot of rain on the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico - lots of flash
floods. This is part of a note I got from our soggy reporter in St.
Thomas yesterday evening: "As of 10pm there is no wind but plenty of
slow rain all last two days with heavy rain hitting here around 8pm this
night and still coming...........we will be flooded out all over the
island no doubt.....St. Thomas will no doubt suffer flash flooding as
will Puerto Rico which causes massive erosion into the
sea...........system is really slow moving right now........send mask
and snorkel!!"

Mask and snorkel is in the post.

I agreed with the NHC analysis of no circulation with this system until
yesterday. Today it looks like there is some very low atmosphere
circulation northwest of the main rainfall region. The heaviest
convective activity is just south of PR/VIs, although they are still
getting quite a few buckets of rainfall. There is some wind shear from
the northwest, which is why the convection is not in the same location
as the vorticity, which is the technical term for circulation.

From the pressure fields it is too soon to be able to tell where this
will go, however the computer models at the moment show that it will
head north and stay in the Atlantic, away from the eastern US.

It is not yet officially a Tropical Depression. However, with the
developing circulation and convection, and winds (from satellite)
already over 30 knots (1 knot = 1.15 mph) or 34.5mph, I think it might
actually already be a Tropical Depression. Water temperatures in that
area are over 29 deg C, so certainly warm enough to maintain heavy
convection.

The next named storm by the way is Kyle. I'll send out an update when it
becomes a TD (or TS).

Ciao for now,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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