Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine: September 2 Update B

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10. I have a British sense of humoUr... did I mention that one already?

Now the actual Update.

I think we'll have to cut the caffeine for Mother Nature. She's had too
much... we now have three Tropical Storms: Hanna (sans Barbera), Ike
(sans Tina), and Josephine (sans Napoleon).

Hanna:
As I suspected, she's been 'drifting' southwards during the day - and a
bit eastward too. Until she becomes unstuck, it's still a complicated to
forecast the track and the timing of that track. Having looked at the
latest pressure maps though, it looks like the high is shifting
northwards and away ...so I expect her to start moving West and then
West-Northwest, then NW in the next 24 or so hours. She's very ragged in
appearance, so it is difficult to find her center of circulation and
I'll go with the official one at around 20.6N, 72.9W. Max winds are near
70 mph (TS wind range: 39-73 mph), making her a strong TS (central
pressure 985 mb). Although she still has some pretty decent wind shear,
there's a good chance she will become a cat 1 within 24 hours, assuming
she begins to move WNW-NW and away from land (and by land I mean
Hispaniola, not the Bahamas etc) and over water temperatures that are a
balmy 30 deg C. The NHC forecast calls for a slower strengthening than
that based on the wind shear she has ahead of her (and that would be
just fine with me).

Ike:
At 11am he was at around 18.9N, 45 W and was speeding westward at 18
mph. I'm not 100% sure I agree with that direction. It looks like he is
moving NW to me, so he is now at about 19.5N, 45.3W or so. I agree that
the winds are about 60mph (1002 mb central pressure), making him a
mid-sized TS. He is currently moving along the southern edge of a high
pressure system in the Atlantic, so I think he'll continue NW for a
while longer, then get back on a westward track - maybe tomorrow. The
forecast calls for this high pressure to expand westward, so his three
day forecast track takes him to the er... southern Bahamas/Hispaniola
region as well. We might need to send them some more umbrellas. He'll
continue his slow intensification today.

Josephine:
TD 10 became TS Josephine at the 11am advisory. She is way way out East
at around 13.2N, 25.3W and is officially moving W at 15 mph (although
WNW would be more accurate). Winds are 40mph (central pressure 1005 mb)
- there was a typo in my previous update, I meant to write that TD 10
had winds of 35 mph not 15 mph, so 40mph is not a big jump! She is
following Ike's footsteps and is also moving along the southern edge of
the high pressure system in the Atlantic, so she will continue generally
westward for a few days yet and she will also gradually intensify.

I think that's it for today folks, unless there's a big change to report.
Until the morrow...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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