doing far more fun and interesting things like sitting in different
planes, on different airport tarmacs for hours on end (not at the same
time of course :) ). When are they going to get around to developing
teleportation? Just think of all the advantages - no time lost in
travel, save on fuel costs, save the environment, unlimited baggage
transfer capabilities, airlines could save even more money by not having
to provide food or beverages, security should be easier, the list goes
on... but with today's technology, 22 hours later...and I'm back
(although I'm not sure which time zone I'm back into).
I did have a quick look at Ike last night, but he behaved as I expected
yesterday so the update could wait: He did intensify as he crossed the
Loop Current, and remains a Cat 2 with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range:
94-110mph). He has not intensified further since he left that area and
has remained a cat 2 with winds near 100mph for well over 12 hours.
Interestingly, his central pressure is only 945 mb, which is quite low
for a cat 2 storm. The NHC had this to say at the 5am discussion:
"IKE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME UNUSUAL STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS
STILL NEAR 85 KT...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THE REPORTED CENTRAL
PRESSURE. THE LATTER VALUE...946 MB...WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO A
BORDERLINE CATEGORY 3/4 HURRICANE. "
In the 11am discussion they say that the wind structure is still
unusual, and that although winds higher in the atmosphere and in some
areas of the storm are strong, they have not recently seen winds as high
as 100mph at the surface. This continues to highlight the complicated
nature of these storms, and that we cannot fully understand them yet,
let alone forecast them with great accuracy.
The NHC maintain that he will be a cat 3 at landfall on Saturday morning
in Texas, but I am still not 100% he will get to a cat 3 stage. There
are at least three factors that will stop him from intensifying too much:
1. As I said a couple of days ago, although surface temperatures are
warm (about 29 deg C), the warm waters are shallower with depth.
2. There is a bit of wind shear from the North/North-west direction.
Although it is not much, it appears to be affecting him at his current
strength.
3. As he gets closer, he will begin to interact more with land. In fact,
he is a very broad storm - hurricane force winds extend out 115 miles
from the center (which is at 25.5N, 88.4W), and everyone from Cuba to LA
are experiencing effects - primarily in the storm surge at the moment.
As a reminder (or maybe its something new), if you want to look at how
high water levels are getting near you, go to the Tides Online page:
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html. Click on 'State Maps'
on the left panel, and then click on the state you are interested in and
then on the location of interest. Texas is marked with 'TX', in case you
were wondering ;). The blue line is the predicted normal water level,
the red are the actual observations, and the green line on the plots
gives you the difference between the expected value and the observations
- i.e. the 'above normal' water level. Because a storm is a low pressure
system, in the northern hemisphere the winds move around it in a
counter-clockwise direction. So water levels on the north/eastern side
of the storm will be above normal because the winds are pushing water
towards the shore, but water levels on the western side will be below
normal.
There are parts of FL, AL, MS, and LA that have had, or are experiencing
over 2 ft of storm surge already. For example, Dauphin Island, AL has
over 2ft above normal water levels at the moment. In TX (Texas)
Galveston Pier currently has about 1 foot above normal, and rising. I
mention Galveston (casually) because that makes a good segue into where
Ike is going (subtle, huh? :))... Texas is still the likely candidate
for landfall, but it is unclear which part of Texas. The forecast center
of cone track takes Ike just south of Galveston, but the pressure maps
show anywhere from the Texas Mexico border to LA as a possibility at the
moment. So, do not focus on the center of that cone! He is moving WNW at
10mph.
More later...
J.
Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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