Hurricane Kyle: September 28 Update A

I heard from an intrepid reporter currently in the Halifax, Canada area
and heading towards New Brunswick. Just like Kyle. Oops.

The theme for this storm is: half-baked. He has no convection in the
southern half of the system, it's all to the north and it has decreased in
the last few hours (although there is still some thundery activity there).
I can't quite determine where the center of circulation is because he's
not very well formed at all, due to *very* strong wind shear. The NHC have
it at 40.4N, 67.7W, heading NNE at 24 mph.

They say his winds are near 80mph (estimated central pressure 991mb) with
hurricane force winds extending out 70 miles from his center. I disagree.
At the 5am discussion, this is what the NHC said:

"THE SEVERELY TILTED STRUCTURE AND DEGRADED CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS INSTEAD
COMPELLED ME TO USE A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND PEAK SFMR WIND SPEEDS
TO ESTIMATE THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE 65 KT."

1 knot = 1.15mph. So doing that *very* complicated calcuation, I get winds
of just over 74 mph. Although the planes report the finest information in
a storm, they actually still have to estimate what the wind speed is at
the surface because they can't get data from that far down. And as the
resolution of instruments is not very high, I would still maintain this is
a TS.

Then at the 11am discussion, this is what the NHC said:
"EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT HURRICANE
STRENGTH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA...IN PARTICULAR DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS WHICH SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 75 KT JUST BEFORE 12Z."

12Z was at 8am. Dvorak estimates are based on satellite information to
estimate the wind speed. So a handful of measurements *estimated* from the
planes only *could* have been as high as 75 knots. Looking at buoy
measurements in the area, at the moment those that are closest to the
center are clocking wind speeds of 41 knots (47mph at 41N, 66.5W), 20
knots (23 mph at 40.5N, 69.5W), 18knots (20.7 mph at 42.3N, 66W)

Let's talk about ocean temperatures shall we? He's now over water
temperatures of 23-25 deg C, and about to head into even colder waters of
20-23 deg C. Not a very good source of energy for any storm.

Wind shear - I already mentioned this was strong.

I can't believe they have him classified as a hurricane. I expect them to
downgrade at the next advisory. I'll send out another update later.

Stay safe in Canada...enjoy your vacation ... what's the weather like? ;)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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