Tropical Storm Kyle and the Blobette: September 28 Update B

TS Kyle:

Finally, I agree with the NHC. Phew!

In the 11pm advisory, they downgraded Kyle to a Tropical Storm, despite
him having had very little convection for most of the day. In fact, he's
not actually a tropical storm, but an extratropical storm (and should have
been classified as such a while ago). The NHC also say he is not a
tropical cyclone anymore so the 11pm was their last advisory on this
system.

Winds are still in the tropical storm range, estimated to be near 70mph,
and central pressure is 986mb. He is located near 44.8N, 65.9W and is
heading generally N at 26 mph, and will get to New Brunswick in about 2-3
hours.

This is most likely my last update on this system. One in which I very
much disagreed with the official word (in case you hadn't cottoned on by
now) but that's o.k. (other than we have one extra "hurricane" this season
when we shouldn't have - but who pays attention to numbers regarding
seasonal activity anyway, huh?).

The Blobette:
And in keeping with the effort to make sure we have the right number of
storms and hurricanes that were predicted at the start of the season,
Mother Nature is teasing us with another blobette out there (and I suspect
I may be disagreeing with the NHC again soon).

So here we go... For a start, this one is not even a tropical system! as
they so nicely point out in the NHC write-up:
"SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER OF A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN"

This blobette is somewhere around 37N, 46W and is over water temperatures
(25-27 deg C). It has got some rotation, but not much convection right
now. This one is moving westward, and I will concede that it could
develop if it moves southward over warmer waters - in fact, any real
convection in this system is on the southern side where the water is a
little warmer. The current projected path is W or WNW - both of which keep
it over this temperature water or cooler. So, if this does develop, then
it is developing primarily because of atmospheric dynamics, not because of
the underlying ocean effects. It could be an extratropical storm - which
can also have rotation like we see with this system. And, believe it or
not, convection also develops in the extratropics where water temperatures
are cooler. I know. I grew up in the UK. Rain is our normal summertime
weather. And wintertime weather (although for some variety we get snow
then as well) ;).

That's all for today. More fun and games from the extratropics tomorrow...
at this rate I'm going to have to change the name of my blog!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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