<minor rant alert>
The NHC upgraded Kyle to a hurricane at the 5pm advisory and I Totally
Disagree with this!
Based on data from a plane, they say he has winds of near 75 mph (cat 1
range: 74-90 mph) and a central pressure in the 995-999mb range! The
center of circulation is still very much to one side (southwest) of most
of convective activity because there is some very very strong wind shear
from the southwest (vertical wind shear ranging between 23-40 mph!). He is
also over colder water - 25-26 deg C. Really, I'm not at all convinced
about this hurricane designation. And I am not alone... even the NHC (yes,
the same NHC) is not totally convinced:
"THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE INCREASED WINDS ARE MORE RELATED TO THE
INCREASE IN THE FORWARD MOTION THAN ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION."
(this is after a discussion on possibly dodgy wind data/estimates).
I know they are erring on the side of caution because that is their job,
but as you may have heard me say before, I object to labeling storms
incorrectly because they become season statistics - "we had x number of
hurricanes this season blah blah blah" (blah blah blah = technical jargon
in case you were wondering). Harumph.
<end of minor rant> (for now).
His center is somewhere near 35N, 69W and he has really picked up forward
speed (as the NHC kindly mentioned) and is moving approximately northward
at a very rapid 23 mph. It is not very easy to see where his center is
because he is not a very well formed system (yet another indication of his
TS status).
The forecast track calls for him to make landfall as a Tropical Storm in
the northern Maine/Canada region early on Monday morning. This is
more-or-less o.k. - I think there's a chance he will pass a little closer
to the US New England coastline, making landfall in Maine.
We'll see what he (and the NHC) decide to do tomorrow.
Until tomorrow,
J.
Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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