Hurricane Ike: September 8 Update A

Ike made landfall in Cuba at around 9.50pm (EDT) last night as a cat 3,
but is now (around 5.30am EDT) a cat 2 with winds of 105 mph, central
pressure 952mb. This makes him a mid-to-strong cat 2 (wind range:
96-110mph). His center of circulation is at 21.2N, 77.3W, but there is no
longer a clear eye. He will continue to weaken today as he interacts with
Cuba.

The forecast keeps him as a hurricane during his passage over Cuba and
into the Gulf tomorrow afternoon. This may happen depending on his
interactions with surrounding water, and in that case he will be a very
weak cat 1 as he enters the Gulf. I think it likely he will be a Tropical
Storm before he emerges from Cuba - there is a lot of dry air around the
system and his convection is already at a minimum in the southwest
quadrant (very little rain).

Today we are looking for him to begin moving WNW. He is currently moving W
at 15mph.

I'll discuss the Gulf scenarios later.

Gotta run.

J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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