November 30: Final Day of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Aaah. <sip of wine>. Aaah. The end of November and the official end of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season. Aaah. <sip of wine> Aaah. ;-)

Another boring year with nothing much to report. Ha ha ha. Yeah. Sure. Somehow I suspect 2010 will be considered an interesting year for major natural and environmental disasters (can you name 5?), and the hurricane season certainly played its part. To sum up the 2010 season, we had 19 named storms, of which 12 were Hurricanes, 5 were Major (cat 3 or higher; Danielle, Earl, Igor, Julia, and Karl) and 7 Tropical Storms. A map of all storm tracks is attached (courtesy of NOAA). As you might have gathered from my 'subtle hints' here and there, I didn't agree with all of these but even if you removed the named storms I thought were a bit too big for their boots, it was still an above-average year (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major). I've read that 2010 tied with 1887 and 1995 for the third highest number of named storms and this is the first year that we know of in which there were 12 Hurricanes, but none made US landfall.

In my opinion (yes, it is still as reticent and humble as it was a year ago ;-)), I think this year the NHC/models didn't do as well in intensity forecasting as they could have. They were slow on predicting an increase in intensity for some storms. This was especially obvious in the regions where the deep ocean waters were warm and would have a larger impact. So the models (or the forecasters) are still not considering the ocean fully. Maybe by 2050 they'll have figured it out, but until then it's great for me because I come across as a relative genius (hey, every bit helps! ;-)). However, I have to say that the long-range (10-15 day) forecasts were amazing! I have been so impressed with that part of hurricane forecast modelling. I know it's still in the kinda-psuedo-experimental stages, but I don't think there were any storms that weren't predicted to form at those lead times by one model or another. I raise my glass to those models and the scientific research that went into them.

At the beginning of June most seasonal forecasters were predicting a busy year. What about 2011? Well, as they have now started to issue the seasonal forecasts in May, there isn't too much out there at the moment. After some searching, I found a blog posted by TropicalAnalystwx13 on Wunderground who says: "20-22 Tropical Depressions, 16-18 Tropical Storms, 6-11 Hurricanes, and 3-4 Major hurricanes" for 2011. And I think from Accuweather we have: " Total storms: 13-15; hurricanes: 8-10; major hurricanes: 4-5 Impact on U.S. coast: 6 storms dealing at least tropical storm conditions, three or four of these hurricanes, one, perhaps two major hurricanes." Everyone else is being prudent, and rightly so. :-)

I recieved a lot of good questions this year, which alas I didn't have time to answer because there were so many storms and then I was busy doing silly little things like moving country. Not to worry. I haven't lost them. I will get to them and bore you silly with the answers one day. ;-) Maybe if I wake up from hibernation early (or maybe before I go into hibernation).

And now we come to my final words of incredible wit and wisdom for the season: Thanks for reading! Just think of all the free time you'll have between now and June 1. You can do something productive like er... mowing the grass and eating cheese (which is better than mowing the cheese and eating grass). ;-) Of course, this could not have been made possible without my fabulous technical support team - the computing guys (esp. D.M.) at CMS/USF in Florida for the listserve, and C.H. in Texas for maintaining the blog site! You guys are, as always, awesome. This year I added pictures to the blog (yay! finally), and thanks to my friends at the Met Office in the UK (esp. S.L.), I joined Twitter. At this rate next year I'll have my own tv show! Thank you also to everyone for sending me your comments, emails, banter, bon mots, and questions and to those who told so many many of their friends, colleagues, and families about this during this year! Readership is up to about 2500 I reckon. Eeek. I better write something useful and serious next year. Hmm. I'll practice during the off-season. I'd also like to thank my family, friends and colleagues on all sides of the Atlantic for their now failed attempts at keeping me sane. (Bwaa haa haa. ;-))

Until the 1st June, 2011 (unless I get around to answering those questions or something interesting happens), have a safe and happy holiday and a wonderful New Year. Laugh and be merry! Now... back to my glass of wine, as I sit on my screened in patio overlooking a lake in t-shirt and shorts. Winter? Where? ;-)

TOODLE PIP!
J.

Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Tomas: November 7, Update A

Earlier today the NHC stopped their advisories on Tomas. He has lost tropical characteristics and is more like a low pressure front than a tropical storm now. This is what we were seeing a couple of days ago and in that image I attached to my previous entry (I had a hectic day away from a computer yesterday :-)). His last known official winds were about 60mph, so he was a mid-sized tropical storm. Central pressure was 997mb. He is centered somewhere around 26.1N, 68.1W.
 
He is about 500 miles SSW of Bermuda and heading NNE at 3mph. Er, Bermuda I think you're good for the rest of this year. (Talk about a long range forecast! ;-)). Nah... he'll pass well to your east and zip by you a bit sooner than that. It looks like wind shear is pretty strong so he should steadily decline and may just about be able to send you a wave (hee hee...puns intended) as he goes by.  
 
This is my last entry on Tomas.
 
No more until the next one... or dare I say it, until the end of the season!! Three more weeks to go! Woo hoo.
 
Later gators! (Shhh, I hear it's best not to mention the noles this week.) (Can one say 'good try'?)
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Tomas: November 5, Update A

In the early hours of this morning Tomas officially became a hurricane. He passed between Haiti and Cuba as a mid-sized cat 1 storm with winds of 85mph (range: 74-95 mph). The interaction with land on either side knocked some steam out of him (puns always intended! ;-)) and he's barely a cat 1 storm now, heading towards the southern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos region, with winds of 75mph and a central pressure of 994mb. He is moving NE at 13mph, and is centered at 20.8N, 72.8W.
 
He looks pretty ragged at the moment, but where there is convection it is still very strong so I agree with the hurricane classification. Haiti and the Turks and Caicos are really experiencing a lot of strong thunderstorms at the moment. It's too soon to say what the impact on Haiti has been because they are still in the thick of things. So far I see a somewhat inaccurate news report from an unamed news source (with three letters in the title and from my homeland ... tut tut, I expected better - the earthquake was less than a year ago!) saying four people have died. Hopefully that's the worst of it, despite people riding out the storm in their tents.
 
The vorticity in the upper troposphere has decreased a bit. Although he looks like a tropical storm in the middle levels of the troposphere, the vorticity in the lowest levels is now connected to a front that extends north all the way from the storm to Canada. I've attached a picture (from the University of Wisconsin) to show you this - the red areas indicate higher vorticity. You can see the front quite clearly. Normally a tropical storm will look like an isolated area of high vorticity.

The forecast calls for Tomas to continue moving northeastward, and for him to get weaker and eventually dissipate by Tuesday. I agree with this. I think the NHC have been pretty good on the track with this storm - at least from the point just before he made that turn towards the north.
 
More tomorrow!
Adieu for now,
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Tomas: November 4, Update A

Poor Haiti. It looks like they are getting lots of rain. Lots and lots. Under normal conditions Haiti doesn't usually do well with lots of rain because of the mountainous terrain and deforestation which results in mudslides and floods. Not what they need under these abnormal conditions!
 
Wind shear is still strong so it's not easy to see his center of circulation - he remains a little disorganized at the moment. Officially he is located at 16.9N, 75.9W and is moving NNE at 8mph. I'll go with that. Winds are now 60mph, so he's a mid-sized Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph) with a central pressure of 993mb. Hmm... he might get close being a cat 1 storm because the vorticity is strong over the entire tropopsphere and wind shear looks like it might diminsh a tad in the next couple of days. Although the focus is on Haiti because of the disasters it has faced this year, Tomas will pass very close to Jamaica and possibly clip Cuba.  
In this case he might interact with land, and he is already beginning to interact with mountainous terrain of Hispaniola so there's a chance that he'll remain a strong Tropical Storm and not get to hurricane strength. It doesn't actually matter too much what the winds are doing (although they will blow away some tents, I'm sure). The biggest problem for Haiti from this will be the rain.  We'll find out tomorrow and the following day!
 
That's it for now. Short. Just like me. ;-)
Ciao,
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Tomas: November 3, Update A

Computer glitches were the theme of the day yesterday I think. It seems as though the update didn't get out to the listserve, although it got onto the website so if you really want to read it you can check it out on jyotikastorms.blogspot.com. Nothing much happened yesterday anyway though, so if I were you, I'd cut your losses and save some time by skipping an entry! ;-)
 
Tomas is still a Tropical Storm, and a weak one at that with winds of 45 mph (range: 39-73mph) and central pressure of 1003mb. He made that turn and is now heading NNW at 6mph. He's currently at about 15.4N, 75.2W. There is a fair bit of vorticity throughout the troposphere - from that alone he should be a stronger Tropical Storm or weak cat 1. There is also quite a lot of convection which is spread over a large area of the Caribbean. I think he's stronger than a weak TS and his intensity is being underestimated.
 
The forecast track takes him towards Haiti by Friday, unfortunately. But I don't know if he will be a hurricane as they predict. Wind shear is still strong in the northern Caribbean, which will inhibit him from developing much more. However, the vorticity is strong too, which indicates strengthening to me. Until the vorticity dies down, I expect strengthening.
 
That's all for today. Let's see if this one gets sent out. Ho hum. Computers... can't live with them, can't live without them. (Ancient saying). ;-)
 
Night night!
J. 
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Tomas: November 2, Update A

Ho ho... back in the country less than a week and I've seen the (current) Governor of Florida twice already. Ok, so he was standing on the street corner, encouraging people to vote today... vote for him, presumably.
 
Meanwhile, on the nature channel Tropical Storm Tomas is still hanging on out there in the Caribbean. He has slowed down a bit since yesterday, but still continues on a westward track at 8mph. Wind speeds are even lower than yesterday's 45mph... they are 40mph. A big drop, I know. ;-) Central pressure is 1006mb. He's still officially a Tropical Storm, but barely. I must admit that he looks more like a TS today than he did yesterday. There is more convection and the vorticity (circulation) has definitely improved since yesterday. It is quite strong in the lowest half of the troposphere, with a small signal in the upper levels which means that he has room to become a stronger Tropical Storm, and possibly a weak cat 1. He's still in the southern part of the Caribbean where wind shear is a little weaker (compared to the northern part). Unfortunately the server is down so I can't access the pressure fields to see if there is any indication of the track.
 
He is centered at about 13.7N, 75.1W. I am having a dodgy computer day apparently... I can't see the satellite movies either, which makes it tricky to see the center of circulation. I'll have to go with the official word for now.
 
Although I don't have my usual (limited) information, there are a few clues that allow us to speculate about tomorrow. He has slowed down. If he continues to move westward, wind shear is low in that direction so we can expect him to intensify. If he moves northwestward and then northward, which is the forecast for tomorrow, then there is a chance that wind shear will inhibit him from intensifying too much. But the forecast calls for him to be a hurricane as he moves north, so I think the computer models are prediciting the wind shear to die away, or not to have an impact. His future intensity depends on wind shear, how fast he moves forward, and how long it takes for him to make that turn northwards. It's all up to atmospheric conditions because the ocean temperatures are pretty consistent where he is, to the west, and to the (immediate) north.  
 
Tomorrow I'll be looking for that northward turn. At the moment, I think a turn to sleepyland for me is in order. :-)
Toodle pip!
J.
 
p.s. I got some funny responses to the Dalek. There's nothing wrong with pronouncing it 'Darlik'... makes perfect sense to me. We add all sorts of letters all over the place in England (if you think we're bad you should visit Wales!).  And HM... R2-D2? Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. I'll have to find you a 2011 calendar of "Sci-Fi Pumpkin Pin-Ups of the 19th Century". Educational AND practical. You'll love it. ;-)
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Tomas: November 1, Update A

Little Tomas is looking quite messy at the moment. He's still moving westward at 12mph, and is currently officially centered at around 13.4N, 69.7W. I'll go with that because I can't tell. I'm not sure he's a Tropical Storm at the moment - officially the wind speeds are 45mph (range: 39-73mph) which means he is a weak TS, but the central pressure of 1005mb is quite high for a Tropical Storm. Convection is strong, but it is to the east of the center because of wind shear. There is some vorticity in the lowest half of the troposphere, but that is south of the official center. He is still experiencing strong wind shear and it looks like if he will continue to experience strong shear if he moves anywhere in the northern half of the Caribbean. Of course now I'm back in a place where hurricane happen I hear what is being said in the news about them. <Sigh> (she says, shaking her head resignedly). Just in case you were wondering... the wind shear will not 'push' the storm in any particular direction. It will impact the intensity of the storm because it will not allow it to develop fully, but it won't do too much to the track a storm takes. <Sigh> 
 
About the track... it looks like high pressure is building up all around him, which means he will be forced to move southwards, or will slow down. If it continues to build up across the Caribbean (from the east to the west) he might not even make it north to Haiti. If he slows down then things become tricky(ier) to predict - he could become more intense because of the warm waters underneath, or he could fall apart if wind shear continues. Tomorrow the thing to look for is what is happening to his forward speed and then we'll reassess things.
 
To sum up... because he is so weak and because high pressure is building up around him, I can't really say what he's going to do until we know whether he slows down or moves southward.
 
What an interesting little beastie this one might be.
More fun tomorrow!
J.
 
p.s. The photo I posted yesterday was a pumpkin Dalek (Gary M. was the first to get the right answer). A Dalek (pronounced Darlik) is one of the aliens from a fabulous British sci-fi show, Dr. Who. This is the longest running sci-fi tv show in the world. The first episode aired in November 1963 and it is still running (although it took a bit of a break in between).   
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Tomas: October 31, Update A

Our Tomas was a cat 2 storm earlier today with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) but has dropped back down to a strong Tropical Storm with winds of 65mph (range: 39-73mph) and a central pressure of 997mb. He is not very organized (a victim of wind shear) and doesn't have a lot of convection, so he definitely looks like a Tropical Storm to me. I can't see the center very clearly and will go with the NHC location at 14.2N, 66.5W (I'm not convinced this is the right center either though). Officially he is moving W at 15mph. Again, it is difficult for me to see this westward movement because he's a bit of a mess. He might be moving Northwestward.
 
I finally managed to look at the pressure fields, and this little monster looks like he's going to turn Northwest and north sooner than the current forecast track indicates. The latest forecast has already moved him from heading west towards the Yucatan, to heading north towards Hispaniola. There is also a chance that he will turn sooner, and could possibly clip Puerto Rico. We'll see how this progresses.  
 
To mark Halloween, I've attached a little photo of a pumpkin work of art that someone sent to me last year that makes me chuckle everytime I see it. It's so British (and that's the only clue you get to what it is...until tomorrow anyway).
 

Ciao for now,
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Shary and Hurricane Tomas: October 30, Update A

Gosh! THANK YOU for the welcome back to this side of the pond! I wanted to let you know I've read all your notes and will try and answer as soon as I can. You guys are great. :-)
 
Tropical Storm Shary:
Officially, she briefly became a hurricane earlier today (either that or I was halucinating) but has now lost her tropical characteristics. I don't think she was actually a hurricane because she had already lost her tropical flavour, but the wind speed could have picked up as she merged with a front and as the intensity of these storms are based solely on wind speed they had her as a weak hurricane for a smidge (a very small unit of time ;-)). She's currently centered at 39.2N, 50.9W and is moving NE at 48mph - gee whiz but that's fast! At those speeds she is clearly already part of a frontal system. The NHC have issued their last advisory on this system. Central pressure was 991mb and winds were 70mph in their last advisory.
 
And some of our friends on Bermuda weren't on the island as she zoomed past. Nope. They were in a much better place. They were in a boat in the Atlantic. Can't beat that when a storm is going by. I got this from Steve B.:

"tell me about it. We're hove to at 29 12N 64 20W on the way back from Puerto Rica. Lovely way to spend a Friday night. Rock and rolling."
 
Hopefully 'the way back' doesn't involve a detour south into the Caribbean!  
 
This is my last entry on Shary.
 
Hurricane Tomas:
Not surprisingly, Tomas is now a hurricane - those areas of offset vorticity I mentioned yesterday came into alignment. His center is at 13.5N, 61.7W, and he is moving WNW at 9mph. He is a pretty strong cat 1 storm at the moment with winds of 90mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) and I have no doubt he will intensify further because wind shear is not very strong and sea surface temperatures are a warm 29-30 deg C. Central pressure is currently 982mb. He has crossed into the Caribbean, but is still causing some havoc on the southern windward islands. He's beginning to look good with a nice eye trying to form. Vorticity is strong throughout the troposphere, and convection is really good. The islands will continue to experience strong thunderstorms for at least another day or two. I'll look at the track in more detail tomorrow - I crashed this machine trying to have a look at that stuff today.  

On a related but unrelated note ... one of my fabulous readers (and our Caribbean reporter) Tom is married to Sheri.  These two storms were for you guys (only literally though ;-)).
 
Until the morrow!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storms Shary and Tomas: October 29, Update A

I don't think Tropical Storms are supposed to form when I'm moving from one continent to another. I'm pretty sure that's not in the rule book. And TWO?? I only turned my attention away from the Atlantic for a couple of days. Dearie me.
 
Well, here I am in sunny St. Petersburg, Florida. I'm here, my cats are here, and I'm hoping my shipped cargo stuff will be here soon - silly people out there sending bombs and whatnots via plane cargo!! What a complete nuisance. If they devoted that energy and effort towards the good of all humankind just imagine how amazing things would be! I know, I know, it's an idealistic viewpoint. Sigh.
 
So moving onto nicer things...  we have two storms to chat about.
 
Tropical Storm Shary:
This is a mid-sized Tropical Storm with winds of 65 mph (range: 39-73mph) and a central pressure of 993mb. Her center is at 30.9N, 65.0W, about 95 miles south of Bermuda and she's moving NNE at brisk 13mph. She will pass just south and east of the island.  Tropical Storm force winds extend out about 85 miles from the center. She's mostly a wind event with very little convection, so it should be a breezy night out there. Water temperatures are cold (25 deg C). There is so little convection and she's kind of elongated, so I don't think she's really a fully formed Tropical Storm and looks like she's already extratropical (which is what she will be forecast to become tomorrow). It looks like she'll become part of a front soon.
 
Tropical Storm Tomas:
Tomas was just named (number 19!... one more and I'll have to start counting on other people's fingers and toes!), although he was looking like a Tropical Storm earlier today. He is officially a weak storm with winds of 40mph and central pressure of 998mb, but he looks stronger and better developed than that to me. Possibly as much as a strong Tropical Storm actually. There's a lot of convection and a fair bit of vorticity in the entire troposphere! The vorticity in the lowest half of the troposphere is west of the vorticity in the upper half of the troposphere. Once those come into alignment he will be a good looking storm with a lovely structure and will intensify further. He's moving WNW at a rapid 17mph, and is currently officially located at 11.1N, 57.5W, just outside the Caribbean and heading towards the southern windward islands. It looks to me as though his center is a bit north of that, at 11.8N, 57.4W.
 
That's it for today. What a week! Phew. Time for a glass of wine. ;-)
More tomorrow (of course).
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Richard: October 26, Update A

Hullo out there!
 
After becoming a hurricane a couple of days ago, Richard made landfall in Belize as a cat 1 storm with winds of 90mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) and central pressure of 981mb. He's crossed the Yucatan and is now a Tropical Depression in the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. Current location is around 20.2N, 93W, and he's moving NW at 10mph. Winds are 30mph and central pressure is 1005mb. It looks like he'll fizzle out over the Gulf. Although there is still some decent lower level circulation, there is very little convection.
 
This is my last entry on this system.
 
This is also my last entry from the UK for this hurricane season! I've had a fabulous 14 months here during which time I walked over 200 miles, drove over 22,000 miles, flew over 32,000 miles, took over 3200 photos and had lots of adventures. Tomorrow I fly across the pond, so the next time I write will be from Florida. Time for a new adventure, but first... a cup of tea! (of course) ;-)
 
Tally ho and toodle pip,
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Richard: October 24, Update A

Not surprisingly Richard has intensified to a strong Tropical Storm with winds of 70mph (range: 39-73mph). He always looked stronger to me than the official numbers suggested. At this point, I think he might even be a cat 1. He's just north of the Honduras border at 16.5N, 85.5W and is heading WNW at 10mph towards Belize. Central pressure is 995mb. The warm waters are pretty deep in that part of the Caribbean, with 26.5 deg C waters in the upper 100-125m (surface temperatures are 29-30 deg C) and wind shear is weak. Both will allow him to intensify a bit more. However he is interacting with Honduras which may help to keep him from growing much beyond a cat 1. His vorticity is strong in the lowest half of the troposphere and there is a signal in the upper levels as well - another sign (to me) that he is already a hurricane. Convection is also pretty good, with thunderstorms and oodles of rain (a technically precise amount of rainfall ;-)).  He is forecast to make landfall overnight tonight.
 
I'll try and pop in later when they upgrade him to a hurricane (I'm assuming they will!).
Until then,
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Richard: October 22, Update A

A short entry due to lack of time - just a place holder really, for the records. 
 
TS Richard has a lot of convection, especially for something that's only a weak TS with winds of 45mph (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is still officially quite high at 1007mb and he's also pretty disorganized so I still can't quite see a good center of circulation. Vorticity is good in the lowest half of the troposphere. I still think he's stronger than a weak TS, but not as strong as a hurricane. The official location is 15.8N, 82.3W and he's moving W at a slow 5mph. Hmm.. I think this location indicates a more WSW movement, but generally he's heading towards that central America region of Honduras & the Yucatan.
 
That's all for today. I won't have much computer time over the next few days but I might be able to throw some random words together. Shakespeare did and look where it got him. ;-)
 
Ciao!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Richard: October 21, Update A

And we're not done yet! Anyone who bet that Paula was going to be the last named storm can just put that money in my "Tropical Storm Holiday Fund"... er... I mean my "Tropical Storm Fund" (huh... I don't know how the word 'holiday' crept in there).  
 
A Tropical Depression that's been loitering (with intent! ;-)) in the Caribbean for a number of days has been officially upgraded to the next (17th) named storm of the season - TS Richard. For those who know their alphabet, can count, or have been paying attention... there was no Q named storm. I'm sure there must be a plethora of cool Q-beginning names from around the Caribbean and even some Native American names. Maybe it's time to walk on the wild side and include some of those, hmm? :-)
 
He's officially barely a TS with winds of only 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph). He is also very disorganized so it is difficult to see a center of circulation. I'll go with the official one for now at 16.2N, 80.4W. Central pressure is 1006mb and he's moving SE at 6mph. To me he looks a bit stronger than the official numbers indicate, but I'm sure they will upgrade him to something like 60mph winds later.
 
This system was essentially stationary for a while yesterday (crawling around at 2mph) over that delicious warm Caribbean water, which has allowed him to grow a bit. Convection is pretty good but there is a lot of wind shear so the convection is mostly to the east of the official center. Jamaica has been getting more than a few raindrops over the past few days. The vorticity (circulation) is also good in the lowest half of the troposphere (scientific term for lowest level of our atmosphere which extends up to about 8-16km depending on where on the planet we are looking, in case you started reading this mid-way through the season). If it wasn't for the wind shear, he would definitely be a stronger TS. He's right on the edge of an area of weaker wind shear so, depending on the path he takes, he may intensify quite a bit within the next 24 hours.
 
Hmm... although the forecast track takes him westward over the next day, I'm not so sure. Looking at the large-scale pressure fields, it looks like there's a good chance he'll move eastward/northeastward. But I don't have a lot of information on these fields, so there may be something small that I can't see. Maybe my glasses will be cleaner tomorrow! ;-) The longer term forecast track takes him west and then curving northwest to make landfall as a hurricane on the Yucatan Peninsula early Monday morning. We'll see how this track pans out. If it's the correct track, I can see him becoming a hurricane because, as we've seen before during this season, that part of the Caribbean has the deepest warmest water.
 
Dear Mother Nature, thanks for your timing. I've been rather busy these past few days so it's been really helpful to only have to pop in and see what the blob was doing and then get back to other things. :-)
 
Until tomorrow (unless I get tired of doing moving-related things later and he's done something interesting :-)),
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Paula: October 15, Update A

A really short entry today. Yay! She's been downgraded to a Tropical Depression, and the NHC stopped advisories on her this morning. There's barely any convection, and the vorticity is only in the lowest level. She continued to track east and is over water, just north of Cuba now. The Bahamas are getting a shower or two. She's too disorganized for me to identify a center. The last known was around 22.8N, 79.5W, and she was heading E at 9mph. Winds were 25 mph, central pressure was 1009mb.
 
This is my last entry on this storm.
 
There are murmurs of something potentially develping in the southern Caribbean in a few days. There's certainly a lot of convection down there, but no vorticity to speak of. We'll see what happens.
 
Have a great weekend!
Signing off until the next one (to do packing and moving sorts of things).
 
Toodle pip!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Paula: October 14, Update A

A short update as it's late... after skirting the northern Cuban coast for most of the day, Paula is over land now, at 22.8N, 82.8W, and is moving east at 9mph. She's a little thing and a bit messy so I can't quite determine the center and will go with the official lat/long. The forecast track has shifted and continues to take her in an ENE/E direction for a greater distance than it did yesterday. I agree with this more than I did with the southward turn over Cuba track that was depicted yesterday. It looks like she will re-emerge over water as a Tropical Depression and eventually dissipate. The downgrading to a Tropical Depression seems reasonable because she is over land and wind shear continues to increase, although she does have a lot of convection for something that is under those conditions. It's because she is interacting with the warm waters of the Straits of Florida - part of me is wondering if the center is still over water (barely), but I'll still go with the NHC location because I can't see the center and they have been sending planes into the system. The wind shear is responsible for almost all the convection being to her northeast, over southern Florida and the Bahamas.
 
Winds are 60mph and central pressure is 1002mb, so she's still a mid-sized TS (range:39-73mph). Vorticity is still good in the lowest half of the troposphere, and the lower level convergence and upper level divergence (remember those from a couple of updates ago?) is strong for such a little thing. We'll see how much this changes as she crosses Cuba.
 
That's all for today... time for a nap. :-)
Ciao (again ;-) ),
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Paula: October 13, Update A

I know I shouldn't say this, but I'm going to anyway. Paula has been a very well behaved so far. I think the last time I said that about a storm, it went and did some naughty things. But I have high expectations that Paula will be good. :-)
 
She's currently centered about 21.9N, 85.7W and is heading NNE at 5mph. Winds are 85mph, central pressure is 992mb. This makes her a mid-sized cat 1 storm (range: 74-95mph). I agree with this. Her track is a little north of the forecast one we saw yesterday, and she passed through the Yucatan Channel with ease. She's heading towards the northern coast of Cuba now. The wind shear I mentioned yesterday has really kicked in and on satellite images the convection is mostly northeast of the center of circulation (in the direction of southern Florida), which is a good indication of wind shear. The track looks like it recurves from NNE to NE to ENE and then E and SE into Cuba, where the storm dissipates. There's a good chance she will stay on a more ENE/eastward track for longer than expected, skirting the northern coast of Cuba.  
 
In the face of such strong wind shear (it is ~25-35 mph) she will continue to decrease in intensity, so I don't expect her to be a hurricane for too much longer. This is in agreement with the NHC as well.
 
She is still a dainty little thing with hurricane force winds extending only 10 miles from the center. I've walked more than that in a day! (although not under those weather conditions). There's an interesting statement on the NHC website: A HURRICANE IS CROSSING BETWEEN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND EASTERN YUCATAN...BUT WITHOUT MODERN TECHNOLOGY NO ONE WOULD KNOW IT WAS THERE. Almost true ... I suspect that in this particular location, ships might have had a bit of a clue. But it does raise the point that the increase in hurricanes in recent years has been, in part, because of improvements in modern technology. Those that form away from shipping lanes, such as in the eastern Atlantic, would have gone undetected in the past.  
 
Anyone taking bets on if this is the last named storm of the season? ;-)
More tomorrow!
Ciao (... I still always think of Eddie Izzard on a scooter when I write that),
J.
 
p.s. my twinterview went well I think (I hope!). I forgot to write 'Hi!' and little things like that, but it was fun. :-)
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Paula: October 12, Update A

As expected, Paula ramped right up in intensity over those lovely warm Caribbean waters, although she remained a dainty little thing (in size).  Sea surface temperatures are over 29 deg C, with waters warmer than 26.5 deg C in the upper 100-150m. All that lovely energy... yummy! ;-) It looks like an eye formed earlier today, but it's clouded over again. She's at about 19.2N, 86W, and heading NNW at 9mph. Her central pressure is now around 981mb, and winds are 100mph, making her a mid-sized cat 2 storm (range: 96-110mph). From the amount of convection in this system, she doesn't look as strong as most cat 2s - maybe a strong cat 1 actually - but I'll go with the official verdict.
 
The track has been adjusted to something that looks far more reasonable to me. Instead of doing loop-de-loops over the northwestern Caribbean, she's now going to make a northeastward turn that will take her towards Cuba. At the moment I think there's a pretty good chance she might move north of this, in which case southern (and southwestern) Florida will get a spot of windy and wet weather (anyone in the Keys on their honeymoon by any chance? Not that you'd be reading this. Oh well. Still, it'll be one of those 'holiday' adventures to talk about, won't it? It's been lovely and sunny and warm in the UK these past few days...). Looking at the satellite images, I see that southern Florida is already getting a spot of wet and thundery weather, which is connected to this Hurricane.
 
Her track will really determine the intensity. So far it's been fairly predictable because of the water temperatures and lack of wind shear. But depending on where she curves (which depends on the pressure fields), if she stays over water - through the Yucatan Strait and then the Straits of Florida - she might intensify further, in which case southern Florida and the Bahamas need to be ready with their rain coats. The one thing that will stop her from growing too much if she gets that far north will be wind shear, which gets stronger if she gets closer to southern Florida. If she curves over Cuba as the current center of cone track shows, I expect she'll decrease fairly rapidly because of the mountainous areas she's crossing.  
 
More on Paula tomorrow. All else is quiet. Dan P. reminded me that I forgot to post a twitter interview time for tomorrow - I think it will be 4pm my time, so 11am US East Coast time. Hmm... I suppose I ought to confirm that before tomorrow afternoon! ;-)
 
More tomorrow on the lovely Paula.
 
Toodle pip!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Paula: October 11, Update A

I was waiting for the Caribbean Blobette to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Paula ... and here she is. Yay! 16th named storm of the season.
 
I think this has been a Tropical Depression for a day or two, so going to a named Tropical Storm is not a big surprise because she didn't stay over land. It looks like the center just clipped the Nicaragua/Honduras corner earlier today (convection decreased, as did vorticity) and is back over water with low wind shear, so the convection is improving again. The vorticity isn't very strong at the moment, mostly in the lowest part of the troposphere. It is not as elongated as it was yesterday and looks like a TS. As it gets just north of Honduras I expect convection to improve because it is over warm water (temps >29 deg C) and deep warm water (warmer than 26.5 deg C in the upper 100m).
 
The upper level divergence and lower level convergence have also improved. Oooh... what the heck is she talking about now, I hear you say. <(New) SCIENCE ALERT!!! (how thrilling!! :-) )> Here's a rare attempt in these updates at a simple explanation of convergence and divergence! A tropical storm has low pressure in the center, near the surface. That's why we all keep mentioning the central pressure - the lower it is, the stronger the winds (usually). A low pressure is an area that the air is 'pulled' towards. By extending that image to a circular storm, you can imagine the winds are pulled in from all around - i.e., they converge. So we have Low Level Convergence. Now the problem is that if you keep pulling winds in at the low levels, they have to go somewhere. It might come as a surprise to you, but they don't just gather around the center and have a game of poker. ;-) The ground is underneath, so the only way the air can go is up. And when the air reaches the top of the storm the only way the winds can flow is out and away from the center. So at the top we have Upper Level Divergence. The stronger the convergence/divergence of a storm, the better the formed it is. Ta-da. <End of (new) SCIENCE ALERT> Phew. Time for some wine-convergence now I think.
 
A plane was sent into the system earlier today and found evidence that this was close to being a Tropical Storm. And there were other data and stuff (obvious technical jargon) that showed this too. She's heading towards the Belize/Yucatan area... moving NW at 10mph. Current center I'm estimating is around 16N, 84W, so she's *just* north of Honduras. Convection is strong near the center and Honduras (and bits of Nicaragua) are getting a few bucket-fulls of rain and some thundery weather. Oh, NHC just posted the official info. They agree with my center (good good). Winds are 60mph, making her a mid-size TS (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is 1000mb. Track looks a little interesting... it doesn't quite make it to the Yucatan coast, but hangs out in the Caribbean as a hurricane. Oh dear. If that really is the track then we might have a big hurricane in a few days... that's the warmest (deepest warm) part of the waters out there. We'll see. I'll have a look tomorrow. For now...
 
...I got things to do. Wine to drink. Forms to fill in. Oh... and don't forget, I am giving a live twitter interview on Weds. afternoon! My first ever. For my fellow Twits (hahaha... I'll always get a chuckle out of that one), details have been posted on the internet: "To see the full interview you will need to follow www.twitter.com/metoffice (@metoffice) and www.twitter.com/metofficestorms (@metofficestorms)". Or use the hashtag #metqt. I'll also tweet the hashtag etc info @JyovianStorm. It's a Brave New World!!
 
More tomorrow!
J.
 
p.s.... in case you didn't know... I work at the MetOffice over here. But this blog are my own views entirely, as I started this little hobby before joining them. And also, in case you didn't know... I'm moving back to the US. In just about 2 weeks - in time for Halloween... how scary for you! ;-)   
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Otto and the Caribbean Blobette: October 10, Update A

Hee hee... it's 10/10/10 today. Finally, a date for which I don't need to pause and think which country I'm writing in (US: month/day, UK: day/month). Of course it would be on a Sunday so I don't have to write the date anywhere official anyway. Typical. ;-)
 
Tropical Storm Otto:
He's now officially extratropical (or post-tropical - yuk, I really don't like this new-fangled terminology. Did I mention that this season already? ;-)). He's moving NE at 43mph! with winds of 65mph and a central pressure of 987mb. His current location is around 39N, 36W. There's a lot of vorticity, but no convection to speak of. It's a blustery day in the Atlantic! He'll pass north of the Azores soon and then turn right and head southeastward. The NHC issued their last advisory on this earlier today, and this will be my last update on this system.
 
Caribbean Blobette:
This blobette still has pretty good vorticity in the lowest half of the troposphere, but it's still a bit too elongated to really make her a Tropical Storm. I'd still consider her a Tropical Depression though. The center looks like it is around 14.1N, 82.1W, really close to Nicaragua now. There's some convection, but nothing like we've seen in Tropical Storms this year. It's unlikely to become a Tropical Storm unless the center misses land and carries on towards the Yucatan. If it develops, I'll send another update.
 
Signing off at 10:10pm my time! (ok that wasn't a lucky coincidence... I waited 2 minutes before hitting 'send' just so I could write that:-))
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Otto and the Caribbean Blobette: October 9, Update A

I'm back after a day away. I'm sure no-one noticed, and Otto looked like he was on track to nowhere-in-particular (there's a road that goes there and a bridge...) so I figured I'd skive off and do other things. It's the weekend after all and it was actually sunny and warm in October in Manchester (UK)! (if you've been to Manchester, you'd know what a novelty that is). ;-)  
 
Hurricane Otto:
It was no surprise to see Otto become a hurricane yesterday. As I said, the vorticity was strong enough, it just needed a bit of help from other environmental conditions (e.g. decrease in wind shear). It looked like he stayed a cat 1 (range:74-95mph), reaching maximum wind speeds of about 85mph overnight. Officially he is now barely a cat 1 with wind speeds of 75mph and a central pressure of 984mb. I would have brought him back down to a Subtropical Storm (or even extratropical), but I'm sure they will do that in the next advisory. He doesn't have an eye and it looks like he's in the process of morphing into 'something not tropical' (clearly a highly technical explanation for what's going on ;-)). He's zipping along at 32mph and convection has really died down, both indicators that he's not really a tropical system. The current center is at 32.4N, 52.6W. After moving ENE for a while yesterday, he is back on a more north-eastward track and looks like he might go north of the Azores, and then turn right and head south towards the Canaries. They will experience some windy weather, but it shouldn't be too bad.  
 
Oh, apparently I do know at least one person (KF) who has been to the Azores! It was on his first oceanographic research cruise. How cool! From KF: [they sailed] "from Narragansett Bay to Punta Delgada aboard the RV Trident of URI, a verrrry long time ago. Getting there was rough, but the Azorean island we were on, Sao Miguel, was marvelous -- sunny, grand volcanic vistas, with at least one black sand beach, roads lined with flowers, sort of sleepy, a real getaway."  It sounds lovely. Although, he thinks it might be a tad bit different now because that was <ahem> years ago. ;-) 
 
Caribbean Blobette:
This little beauty has been struggling to develop into something for a few days now, but the vorticity and convection just couldn't reach agreement on where to meet until today. Although the NHC have this at 30% chance of developing into a tropical system, I think it's already a Tropical Depression because there is a clear, albeit slightly elongated, closed circulation at around 13N, 80.5W, just a bit east off the Nicaraguan coast. Because of wind shear the convection is to the west of the center, so I don't know if it will be able to develop into a Tropical Storm before it interacts with land. It is moving WNW.  

In sort of other news... I'll be doing a Twitter Interview on tropical storms next wednesday! It's the first time I've done a twitter interview. I'm supposed to write answers in about 120 characters (including spaces)! 120 characters!! I can't even tell you *about* the interview in that space! Do you think this might be my biggest challenge yet? ;-) Stay tuned for details.
 
More tomorrow!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

 
 
 

Tropical Storm Otto: October 7, Update A

Alas, no time for dilly-dallying today!
 
Otto the October Storm officially went from a Subtropical Storm to a Tropical Storm as the convection near the center of circulation picked up earlier today. He is currently at 24.0N, 67.6W and although he was rather slow earlier today because of the high pressure surrounding him, he has since picked up speed (not the drug speed, but the velocity speed! ;-)) and is now moving in a NE direction at 6mph. Winds are still officially 60mph with a central pressure of 992mb, so no change from a mid-strength Tropical Storm (range; 39-73mph). Convection is quite a bit stronger near his center and if there wasn't a dash of wind shear and dry air surrounding him I think he would be a hurricane by now because the vorticity is good throughout the troposphere.
 
The track forecast hasn't changed much either at the moment and they still have him heading to the Azores.  Hmm... I've never been to the Azores and I can't think of anyone I know who has either. They are a pretty low-key and quiet bunch of islands, aren't they? Anyway, back to the track. It looks like he's heading more ENE at the moment, which will take him a little south of the current forecast track. Maybe he's going to the Canary Islands instead of the Azores. I know people who have been to the Canary Islands.
 
No more time. Must run. And sleep. Sleep running. Hmm. Maybe not. Although I know someone who went sleep cycling... they realised something was amiss when they woke up on the bike a few streets from home in their PJs.
 
Adieu,
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

 
   

Subtropical Storm Otto: October 6, Update A

Our blob was upgraded to Subtropical Depression early this morning and, as of the 5pm NHC advisory, it is now Subtropical Storm Otto. The wind shear I mentioned yesterday gradually subsided, which allowed the convection to finally wrap around the center.
 
His center is  just a bit north of Hispaniola and a smidge east of the Turks and Caicos, at 23.3N, 68.3W. The NHC have his maximum winds at 60mph (central pressure 990mb) making him a mid-sized Subtropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). He has good vorticity throughout the troposphere but he really isn't fully formed yet because there is still a dry area just southeast of the center and what passes for convection is looking a little ragged (one could say he was a bit under the weather... ;-)).
 
At the moment he's moving N at 5mph, which is rather slow for a storm. He's trying to get past an area of high pressure that's blocking him - it's like going uphill for him, and he's not in the best of shape anyway! The official forecast track has him heading generally northward until tomorrow afternoon and then he'll pick up the pace and head northeast as a hurricane (for a short while). He is heading towards some Atlantic islands. Not Bermuda though (that makes a nice change, hey?) but towards the Azores instead. Actually, it looks like he's already making that northeast turn but I don't have good enough data to be able to judge that with certainty, so tomorrow I will be looking out for more evidence of a turn to the northeast and an increase in forward speed.
 
The folks on the VIs (and probably PR and adjacent islands) have already got drenched by the convection from this blob. From Tom J. on St. Thomas early this morning:
 "...the rain has been deluging stt. we are all flash flooded here. have had NO POWER  for 5 hours and am on generator. NHC was at least right about the flash flooding warning. still deluging as I write this quick note. you'll get this as my pooped dingy is being circled by sharks. WOW WHAT A RAIN!!!"
They were without power for about 18 hours, but it's back now. You might as well just throw away the umbrellas at this point!  
 
That's all for today. More tomorrow!
Ciao,
J.

Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Atlantic Blob: October 5, Update A

Woo-hoo... we got us another one! ;-)
 
This blob has been hanging out in the Caribbean/Western Atlantic region and over the Leeward Islands for a few days now. I think it is soused from one too many rum-based drinks (hmm...banana daiquiris ...yum!) because it is spinning around (isn't that what happens after one too many drinks? ;-)). Although the circulation still covers a broad area, the vorticity is pretty good in the lowest half of the troposphere. I would call this a Tropical Depression already actually, although the NHC currently have it at 80% chance of development into a Tropical Storm. It has been experiencing some wind shear so the convection is definitely to the east of the center, which I estimate to be around 21.5N, 65.5W. It is moving in a NW direction.
 
The VIs, PR, etc can expect rain, followed by rain, with a dash of rain on the side over the next few days. Tomorrow I'll have a look at where this blob is going. Could be heading anywhere really. Probably Bermuda. ;-)
 
Although wind shear still continues, there's a chance they will upgrade this to a named system soon. The next one is Otto.
 
Ciao for now!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Ex-Tropical Depression Nicole and the Atlantic Blob: September 30, Update A

Very short note today! Yay!  
 
Ex-Tropical Depression Nicole:
She's fully merged with that front that stretches up the eastern side of the US. It's dumped a lot of rain all over the place, as expected. The NHC went back and changed their assessment on Nicole for the 12 hours (possibly longer) before they initially called her a Tropical Storm, so in the final records she will officially be a Tropical Storm for longer than 6 hours. It'll all be looked at much more carefully after the season is over but there is clearly some ambiguity about this system in the 'real-time' analysis. Personally, I don't think she was a Tropical Storm. Oh well. With all this rain, it'll all come out in the wash. ;-) This is my last entry on this system.
 
Atlantic Blob:
Blob (10% chance of forming) + Blobette (20% chance of forming) = Blob (30% chance of forming). Nice (thanks to Karen M. for the maths idea). The two systems from yesterday got together to make a cute Blob. (Awww). And to make life easier for the rest of us. Vorticity in the lowest half of the troposphere has improved, but it covers a large area around 15 N, from 45-50W. However, the convection is not really very cohesive. It is a perfect Blob! We'll see if this develops further. It's currently heading WNW at 15-20mph. It is already bringing wet weather to some of the Caribbean Islands. The next name is Otto, but no more on this unless it develops.  
 
It's raining here in the UK too. Again. ;-)
Toodle pippy!
J. 
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Nicole, and a couple of Atlantic Blobs: September 29, Update A

Ever get the feeling it's just about the numbers? Sigh.
 
Not-Tropical Storm Nicole:
<open Sarcasm> This was the most amazing Tropical Storm I've ever come across. It developed whilst crossing the mountainous regions of Cuba, an area that has knocked larger storms (actual, real, genuine, honest-to-goodness hurricanes) to their feet. It was also remarkably asymmetric for a Tropical Storm, with the center of circulation quite clearly off to one side of the really strong convection. It was fabulous how the vorticity and low pressure extended from the northern Caribbean across Cuba to Florida - a rather large area. The same area of vorticity that is connected at some levels of the atmosphere to the low front that extends up the eastern US seaboard. And finally, it's the only Tropical Storm I can think of that formed over land, but dissipated as soon as it got to water.... Yes indeed, quite an amazing 'Tropical Storm'. <close Sarcasm>
 
But hey, we have another named storm to add to the number, right? (oops, sorry, that was residual sarcasm. Don't know how that escaped from the bit above!)
 
The NHC upgraded our Tropical Depression to Tropical Storm Nicole in their 11am advisory... and 6 hours later, in their 5pm advisory they wrote "NICOLE DISSIPATES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA". Remarkable. I'm actually just astounded. They said the upgrade was based on land, buoy and ship observations. So, being the grouchy old person that I am and being *slightly* suspicious that it 'formed' over land with 'hills', I went and had a look at ALL the buoy and coastal station observations I could find - both south of Cuba and to the north along the Keys and up towards Miami. I also looked at the satellite winds. I'd like to know exactly what data they were looking at that showed sustained winds of 39mph please (I think they should post links to show those of us who might be a tad er... skeptical, shall we say?). The most I found were around 32mph. Sigh. And they were doing so well yesterday!
 
The basis for her dissipating was "AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF NICOLE HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE." (from the NHC 5pm advisory). She's ALWAYS had an elongated area of low pressure!! None of this 'degeneration' went on as far as I can see! And so, with the official word being that she has dissipated, the NHC have said they are done issuing advisories on this storm (THE CENTER... WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.)
 
<breathe><breathe><think of happy place> Ok... better now. ;-)

Anyway, she's now officially "dissipated" over the warm waters of the Straits of Florida. Her 'center' was last seen at 24.5N, 80W, and her central pressure was 996mb. Winds are officially 40mph still, which in some people's books would make her a weak TS (Range 39-73mph), but she's not a Tropical Storm beastie and never has been! She's a different sort of system as I mentioned yesterday (and as the NHC recognized yesterday too!) - so although she's 'dissipated' she can still be a bit breezy. She's moving NNE at 12mph and she'll merge with that front as expected. She's still got a heck of a lot of convection - poor Jamaica really got hammered with strong thunderstorms today (as well as yesterday). Basically, the southeast US, Bahamas, Cuba, PR, maybe the VIs etc... will get some stormy rainy windy sort of weather, but its not a Tropical Storm.
 
I can't seem to access the satellite data - server must be down. So I might write about this again tomorrow instead of closing this one down now.
 
Atlantic Blob and Blobette:
There are a couple of blobby things to look out for. One is somewhere in the 15N, 55W region, heading NW (towards the northern Leeward Isles). It has more convection than vorticity at the moment, but the vorticity has been picking up in the lowest part of the troposphere. The second one is east of this, somewhere around 10N, 30W and is moving WNW. This, too, has convection, but it also has more vorticity in the lower half of the troposphere so I think this has a higher chance of developing (if I were to choose between the two). Best to keep an eye on them both! Umm... keep two eyes on them both. One on each. Yeah. That's the plan. ;-)
 
What an odd day. I still can't believe they named Nicole. I was *so* impressed because they totally had the right call yesterday (in my book). I wish I knew what they were looking at when they made that call today! <resigned shaking of head>.
 
More tomorrow - if only to say that I'm not going to say anything about the former Nicole!
Toodle pip!
J.
 
p.s.: I finally joined Twitter today and am officially a 'twit', which some of you probably suspected all along. ;-) I'll be tweeting when I post a new blog entry. (That sentence barely makes sense to me). I don't know if I'll tweet about much else because, as you know, although I am a person of few words I'm not sure how anyone can say anything in 140 characters or less! Signing off now, 'JyovianStorm'. ;-)  
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression 16: September 28, Update A

Well I must say that was lovely ... a whole day off! Gosh. What a luxury!! ;-)
 
So we have one pesky little blobette out there in the Caribbean, huh?  It may be the future Nicole, but I'm not very convinced of that. The NHC upgraded it to a Tropical Depression earlier today, and for once I must say I approve of this and their reasoning! It's a good spot to put it in becuse this is a funny little thing - not quite a Tropical or Subtropical Storm in structure, but not quite a front either. And it formed in a topsy turvy sort of manner. The word on the street (amongst the hurricane hommies - ooh... band name? ;-)) is that this is something that is more frequently seen in the Western Pacific, and is a monsoon-sort of system which may or may not develop into a tropical storm. It's not often we see this in the Atlantic. But this has been a topsy turvy sort of tropical storm year across the planet, with more storms in the Atlantic than in the Pacific. Usually the Atlantic is the slow one! I don't really watch the other basins as intently as I do the Atlantic (because I don't have enough hours in the day) so I'm afraid that for now it's a bit out of my realm to talk about monsoonal systems and whatnots in the Western Pacific. I'll see what I can dig up for some future quiz!
 
This Tropical Depression is still a blobette at heart and has more ferocious looking convection (rain, thunderstorms etc) than wind speed. It is officially centered at 21.4N, 82.0W, but it covers such a broad area of circulation that it's a bit tricky getting a good handle on that 'center'. It is moving NNE at 8mph. A minimum central pressure of 997mb was observed by Hurricane Hunter planes (again this was over a broad area) and the maximum winds are 35mph. BUT, because this isn't a Tropical Storm, the strongest winds are actually about 200 nautical miles southeast of the center. Southeast is also where the heaviest convection happens to be - the strongest thunderstorms, heaviest rains. 
 
This TD is looking a bit lopsided - the official center of circulation is to one side of the heavy convection. The track takes it over Cuba and on to Southeast Florida - this is along a low pressure front that has also been responsible for dumping rain over the Carolinas. There will be rain over the next few days - the Caribbean islands are already getting drenched. I haven't seen the little Cayman Islands all day, and Jamaica is really getting some severe thunderstorms at the moment! In the US, get your wellies and brollies ready... and possibly your canoes too! ;-) Parts (all?) of the southeastern seaboard have already had some rain from the front that is attached to this, but there will probably be quite a few bucket-fulls to come. The forecast has it as a Tropical Storm within a few hours, as it gets to Cuba, and then all the way up to North Carolina. I don't see it becoming a Tropical Storm as it crosses Cuba (the convection will decrease as it crosses that land), but there is a possibility that it will become a bit better organized as it moves over the Florida Current and Gulf Stream, after leaving Florida. Of course by then it might be completely part of that low pressure front and not a Tropical Storm at all! I also think it might be going a little east of the center of cone track, but it doesn't really matter because, if anything, this is mostly going to be a rain event for people in the US.
 
Until tomorrow, 
A bientot! 
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Remnant Lows Lisa and Matthew and a Caribbean Blobette: September 25, Update A

And the lazy weekend theme continues for me (who hiked 21 miles over some hilly coastal terrain this weekend and can no longer move her legs. And people run marathons??? how? why? how?!?) and our storms. (yay!)
 
Both Lisa and Matthew are now officially remnant lows. I agree with this assesment.
 
Tropical Depression Lisa:
Lisa is at 26.1N, 29.4W, moving NNW at 7pm. Winds are estimated to be 30mph and her central pressure is 1008mb. Although vorticity (circulation) is strong in the lowest half of the troposphere, the convection has pretty much dropped away. This is my last update on this system.
 
Tropical Depression Matthew:
Matthew is at 17.4N, 92.9W, moving W at 9mph. As I thought, he is now moving westward rather than northwest, so his track has changed slightly and instead of dissipating over the Yucatan Peninsula, he'll go bid farewell over central Mexico. Winds are 25mph and central pressure is 1003mb. Finally! After a couple of days over land the vorticity and convection are beginning to decrease. Woo-hoo! There is still a lot of rain in the system but the thunderstorm level activity has diminished. This is my last update on this system.
 
Caribbean Blobette:
There is an area in the Caribbean that the NHC have marked as having 10% chance of becoming a storm in the next 48 hours. This is an area that was highlighted by those experimental long-term (7-10 days) forecast models that I mentioned in a much earlier blog (well it seemed like a long time ago). Although there is a bit of convection (as a result of Matthew I think), there is not much vorticity so we'll see if this develops. The NHC mentioned this as a possiblity at least twice (that I saw) during their Matthew write-ups. The models envision this blobette becoming a thing to chat about on Weds or Thurs. Something to look forward to, hey? ;-) 
 
That is all for this rather lovely weekend! :-)
Toodle pip!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Lisa and Tropical Depression Matthew: September 25, Update A

It's saturday today and nothing much is going on ... so I'm going to do a weekend thing and be lazy. ;-)
 
Tropical Storm Lisa:
She's currently at 23.7N, 28.4W and moving N at 12mph. She's too disorganized for me to see her center, so I'll go with the official word. Her winds are now 50mph (far more reasonable, in my humbly opinionated point of view ;-) ) and central pressure is 996 mb, making her a mid-sized Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). There is wind shear, not much convection (there are clouds, but not too much rain and thunder) and vorticity is strong only in the lower half of the troposphere - mid-size TS sounds about right. She's just bothering the fish and anyone who happens to be in that part of the Atlantic. I agree with the NHC assessment on her today, so this is all I have to say.
 
Tropical Depression Matthew:
He is currently at 17.4N, 89.4W and moving NW at 14mph. Winds are (apparently, huh) 35mph and minimum pressure is 1003mb. The forecast calls for him to slow down and become stationary over the Yucatan peninsula soon, and because he'll be over land he will weaken further and dissipate. As expected, the dissipation is slower than was forecast yesterday and has been pushed back from Monday to Tuesday afternoon. You all know my take on the reason for that - because his intensity was (and continues) to be underestimated. I would put him as a Tropical Storm now, given that he has strong vorticity in the troposphere (including a small amount in the upper troposphere) and he is still producing torrential rain and thunderstorms, despite being in an area of wind shear and over land. Also, he's a bit messy and disorganized (he could do with a proper filing system! ;-)) but he looks a little southwest of that location, in which case I can see him maybe continuing to move westward(ish) for longer than forecast instead of becoming stationary. I'll be looking out for the forecasted slowing down tomorrow afternoon. 
 
And that's it for my lazy Saturday. Enjoy the weekend! :-)
Ciao for now!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Lisa and Tropical Storm Matthew: September 24, Update A

I'm attaching (and on blog site) the latest Infrared satellite image of the Atlantic, taken by the GOES-East satellite. There are two blobs. One is over Central America (Nicaragua/Honduras) and has moisture and clouds associated with it that stretch across a large region of the Caribbean. The other is way over in the eastern Atlantic, at around 20N, 27W. Can you identify which storm is officially the weaker of the two (and is a weak Tropical Storm) and which is the one that has just strengthened to a Hurricane? Remember an Infrared image shows cloud top temperatures. The coldest cloud tops are marked by the red going into dark grey colours and one can expect pretty strong thunderstorms, torrential rain, and possible tornadoes in those areas, the orange areas are thunderstorms with heavy rain, the yellows (as cloud tops get warmer) indicate areas of rain, and the blues going into whites (warmest cloud tops) are just cloudy areas. (Answers in the rest of this entry - and er, in the subject header ;-)).

Hurricane Lisa:
She has some clouds, but not a lot of strong convection or rainfall. She also has vorticity (circulation) in the lowest half of the troposphere, but nothing at higher altitudes. Her center is officially at 20.0N, 27.8W and she's finally decided she's tired of hanging out in the same place so she's heading north at 8mph. Her central pressure is estimated to be 989mb and her wind speed is estimated to be 75mph, making her a cat 1 hurricane (range: 73-95mph). Hurricane force winds extend out a whopping 10 miles from the center. I agree, there is a little itsy bitsy eye trying to form, but yes, of course I disagree! ;-) Well... I agree with the name. The location is fractionally off - I think she's slightly to the east of that - and she's heading NNE. But the estimated winds I am really not sure about. I think she's weaker than that. I looked at the satellite wind field (also attached/on blog site) from a couple of hours ago. It's easy to see the circular pattern in winds that is Lisa. Even generously it seems to me that the wind speeds are about 40-45mph (35-40 knots; 1 knot = 1.15 mph), but if the hurricane force winds are only 10 miles from the center (which they are estimating from satellites as well) then we might not be able to detect it from this image.   

Tropical Storm Matthew:
I am really not sure about their assessment on this 'little' guy. He was our Tropical Depression 15 from yesterday and I still think that, like Karl, they underestimated his intensity. The vorticity is *really* strong (a lot stronger than Lisa's) in the lowest half of the troposphere and he has vorticity in the upper levels of the troposphere which indicates a strong Tropical Storm, possibly close to a weak hurricane. He has a LOT of convection! Very strong thunderstorms, torrential rain, possible tornadoes. He's made landfall in Nicaragua, but this very strong convection is across Honduras too. It looks like his center at the moment is at 15N, 83.7W  - at the Nicaragua/Honduras border. Officially he is moving West at 15mph - I think it's more WNW. His estimated central pressure is 998mb and winds are 45 mph, making him a weak (!?!) Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). A plane went into the system when he was still over water, about 7 or so hours ago and found winds of 45 knots... hmm... 45 x 1.15 = 51.75 mph winds. Not 45mph winds. He has made landfall since then, so I can see their reasoning that he'll have weakened. Sure doesn't look like it to me at the moment. I'm sure it doesn't feel like it to the people underneath either.
 
Earlier today (5am advisory - over 12 hours ago), the NHC wrote: "THE CURRENT SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE IN 12-24 HR...SO THE MAIN
FACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION."  I don't think the impact of the ocean is fully being taken into account in these intensities - even though it's been shown time and time again that the deeper the warm water is, the stronger the storm generally becomes (barring strong atmospheric inhibition). The most famous examples were Katrina and Rita in 2005 - they became cat 5 as they went over the Loop Current. 
 
Now he is over land there's certainly the possibility that the convection will decrease, especially as there is also a bit of wind shear at the moment, but he has got some lusciously warm waters to sustain him for a while. I think he's going to cause a bit of a mess in Central America. I wouldn't be overly surprised if his intensity increases a bit before decreasing. As for the track, the forecast has him staying on land (mostly), crossing Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala, and then dissipating over Mexico by Monday afternoon. I can see this as a viable track, but if he is a little stronger then it might take him a little longer. Speaking of dissipation, that's what seems to have happened to the forecast track making a right turn and heading northeast. I can see the low pressure front that would have steered him in that direction - it's in the northern Gulf area at the moment. In fairness to the NHC, they did say yesterday that both the track and intensity forecasts for this storm had a high level of uncertainty and could change drastically.
 
More tomorrow. Time for some sleepings over here. Have fun over there!
Byee!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Lisa & Tropical Depression 15: September 23, Update A

Gollygeewhiz! Some of these storms are like boomerangs this year! We have the remnants of Julia in the middle of the Atlantic. She's been trying to stage a come-back tour but although the circulation has improved, her convection could do with a make-over. She's around 32N, 37W and is just bugging the fishies really. And then there is Lisa...
 
Tropical Depression Lisa:
The ultimate boomerang storm! Lisa formed near the Cape Verde Islands, headed west/northwest for a few days lulling the residents of the Cape Verde Islands into a false sense of security and sunshine, and has now returned to drop off some rain she forgot to leave the last time she was in the area. But at least she's been downgraded to a Tropical Depression because of that low pressure front to the northeast that I mentioned yesterday. She's around 17.5N, 28.9W and moving N at hardly any speed at all (2mph). Winds are 35mph and central pressure is 1002mb. Vorticity is still really good in the lowest half of the troposphere, but the convection just isn't there right now. The NHC think she might get back to being a Tropical Storm, but she won't be very strong and will stay in the Atlantic - I see nothing to disagree with in that assessment.
 
Tropical Depression 15:
This is the former Caribbean Blob. It was upgraded a few hours ago and is currently centered at 13.9N, 76.2W and is moving W at 15mph. Winds are 35mph and the central pressure is 1007mb. Convection has been really strong over much of the Caribbean because of this blob. I sure hope no-one is trying to get a tan on the deck of a cruise ship in the Caribbean this week! The vorticity (circulation) has slowly improved over the lowest half of the troposphere, but there's nothing higher up (which is a good thing). Although the official direction of movement is West, I think it's moving WNW and has started to move away from the South American landmass. I also think the forecast track on the NHC page is reasonable until a point. I think that it will continue to head WNW/NW towards the Nicaragua/Honduras region, and then possibly on to Belize and Mexico. It continues to experience a bit of wind shear, which is still why the development is slow. However water temperatures are rather warm at around 28-30 deg C and the warm waters of over 26.5 deg C can be found in the upper 75-100m. As it gets closer to Central America it will be closer to the deepest warm water in the ocean and, depending on it's proximity to land and how much wind shear there is, we might see it blossom like it's brother, Karl. The forecast track gets interesting after Monday (when it is over the Yucatan) - the forecast shows it doing a right turn and heading north. Although this looks odd, it is not unusual for a late-season storm. We saw it in 2005 with Hurricane Wilma, which ended up making landfall in southwestern Florida and crossing the state. It's really too soon for me to tell but just so you know a possible reason behind such a sharp turn - <weather science alert> it's because a low front is forecast to come down from the northwest, and will whisk the storm away along its frontal boundary and towards the northeast. A forecast track like this depends on three things:
1. If there is such a front,
2. if that front is strong enough relative to the storm to have an impact, and
3. where that front is when it meets the storm. 
If the front moves faster than forecast, the sharp bend could occur sooner. If it is slower, a weak storm could dissipate over land and not be affected at all. Or a stronger storm could get farther north before turning.  <end of weather science alert>
 
Until tomorrow my friends!
Ciao,
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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