Tropical Storm Jerry and the Caribbean Blobette: September 30, Update A

The big question in the US this evening is whether or not there will be a government tomorrow. According to the Dept. of Commerce Agency Contingency Plan (you can find all the plans here by the way: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/contingency-plans), the weather part (including Tropical Storms) will carry on (and on and on). On the other hand I have heard from a reliable source inside the U.S. Geological Survey (let’s call him Bryan for the sake of anonymity) that they will be "turning off all volcanoes and canceling earthquakes", and rest assured, the National Parks Service will, indeed, be shutting down Old Faithful and other hot geysers and hot springs. No need to worry about those. :-)

Tropical Storm Jerry

Tropical Depression #11 turned into Tropical Storm Jerry today (we're still doing better than the Western Pacific, where Tropical Depression #22 (!!!) turned into Tropical Storm Fitow today). I agree with this upgrade because the circulation that was absent from the middle levels of the troposphere yesterday improved today. He is at 27.3N, 44.9W, still heading east at 7mph. He is pretty weak with winds of 40mph, central pressure is estimated to be 1008mb. He's been heading a little more east than yesterday's track showed:

 

 

But the NHC think he'll make that turn back to the west any minute now. I'm not 100% sure about this yet, but I do see it as a possible scenario because the high pressure will develop to his north and northwest.  

 

The convection also continued to persist during the day but it has been slowly decreasing as we see if we compare an infrared satellite image from mid-afternoon:

with this one three hours later:

The major convection is still to the northeast of the center, so there is still some wind shear but not as much as yesterday. Water temperatures are warm enough for the storm to develop, with surface temperatures around 27-28 deg C, and the upper 50-75m warmer than 26.5 deg C. However there is a lot of dry air to the southeast of Jerry, which is squelching the convection:

If he does take that forecast track to the west, he'll be moving away from the dry air and I think he will intensify. His circulation is continuing to improve throughout the troposphere so there's a chance he may even reach hurricane strength, although currently the NHC don't forecast his wind speed exceeding 45mph at any point in the next 5 days.

Caribbean Blobette
This little thing now has a 20% chance of developing into something in the next 2 days. There's a bit of circulation, but she's mostly just convection at the moment. She is over some very warm waters, so definitely worth keeping an eye on!

That's all for today. Now I think...

How cool is that?!? :-) I found napkins with one of my catch-phrases on it! They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery! ;-)

Until tomorrow!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression #11: September 29, Update A

Ten days since last I wrote! How time flies! Well, it's Sunday evening and time for a small bowl of Mud Pie ice cream with an Italian Waffle Cookie. Yummy!

The NHC upgraded an Atlantic blob to TD #11 yesterday, but it is rather a weak thing. It is currently around 27.2N, 46.8W and, from the satellite images, it looks like it is heading due east. Winds are officially 35mph, central pressure 1010mb. I think this might be a bit of an over-estimate on the intensity because although there is some circulation in the lowest levels of the troposphere, there is nothing in the middle troposphere. There is a non-tropical low pressure trough in the upper troposphere but with nothing much going on in the middle, it is just hanging out watching the fish swim by I expect.

There is some convection in TD#11, which is one of the reasons the NHC upgraded him from a blob to a Tropical Depression. You can see it in this infrared satellite image:

There is enough wind shear, so this convection is mostly north and east of the center of (low level) circulation.

As for the track... have you played the new Forecast Track Board Game? It came out yesterday. This is what it looks like today:

The idea is you throw 'S' chips onto a blue/green board and see if you can hit the orange thing in the middle. If you do, you get a free glass of wine. The more you win, the more challenging it gets. ;-) This slightly odd track is because he is stuck in an area of high pressure. It looks like he will continue east until tomorrow afternoon/evening... and after that I suppose it depends on whether the government shuts down or not on Tuesday, right? I'll go with them on the track.

The next name will be Jerry. This may or may not be Jerry.

Back tomorrow with more words of wit and wisdom! :-)
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Low Humberto and the Yucatan Blob: September 19, Update A

Ahoy me hearties, it be International Talk Like A Pirate Day today (I missed National Cheeseburger Day ayeterday – I did celebrate by eatin’ pizza. 'Tis the thing to do, right? Give cheeseburgers a day off?).

Thin’s be quieter today in t’ tropics so this be a short update, which be good because do you know how difficult it be t' talk like a Pirate? (I would say write like a Pirate, but I’m not sure Pirates can write… ;-)).

No need to pluck a crow today. Tropical Storm Humberto imbibed the old grog, was three sheets to the wind, and has now dissipated. He was last seen on the high seas at around 33.6N, 42W, moving east towards the Barbary Coast at 9mph, with winds of 35mph, central pressure 1006mb. This be the last time I mention this old Privateer!

The Yucatan Blob, peg-leg that he was, tried the high seas of the Bay of Campeche, but was afeared of Davy Jones Locker. There be some low-level circulation at 21N, 95.3W, and he be moving WNW at 5-10mph, but the circulation aloft be lily-livered at best and the convection be mostly akin to landlocked lubbers:

 

Things in Mexico are not looking good with more rain!

Time for a bottle of rum in my crow’s nest. I be back tomorrow!

 (yeah, I have no idea what I wrote either!... except for that bottle of rum bit at the end... ;-))

J.

 
Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I show me heels, I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Humberto and the Yucatan Blob: September 18, Update A

It’s movie night and on the menu is the original The Odd Couple… they are just like our storms! :-) Tropical Storm Humberto is Felix – organized but mostly black and white. The Yucatan Blob is Oscar – rather messy and a bit colourful (with a ‘u’ ;-)).

Tropical Storm Humberto (or Felix)

There is still some circulation in this storm, but mostly in the lower half of the troposphere, with the circulation in the upper troposphere from a low pressure trough. This mix-n-match structure means this is really a subtropical storm, which is what the NHC think too. So we agree thus far. But he really has next to no convection! The latest infrared satellite image:

Mostly black and white, with a nice blue tie. He really shouldn’t be a tropical storm. There’s no thunder or lightning! “What’s the matter Felix? I can tell something is wrong from your conversation.”

Yucatan Blob (or Oscar)

Meanwhile in the southern Gulf, the very messy Oscar-esque Yucatan blob is now over the Bay of Campeche, smoking his cigar, dropping ash all over the floor. The convection in this storm has diminished this evening, but earlier today it was still mostly coming in from the Caribbean side of the Yucatan peninsula. It’s pretty tricky to find the convection that really identifies this storm because at the moment it doesn’t look like anything much – in fact, the strongest convection in the region is over land:

It is also a bit tricky to see where the center of circulation is, partly because there is wind shear. Near the surface the circulation is over the water, but it looks like in the middle troposphere the circulation is still over land (ok, I had to squint, have a glass of wine and stand on my head to even see any middle-tropospheric circulation ;-)). If I were to guess, I’d say the lower circulation is around 22N, 92W, and the mid-troposphere circulation may be around 19N, 91W (maybe).

Poor Mexico. They *really* don’t need any more rain. I read that between Ingrid and Manuel, about 2/3 of the country had been impacted. Sigh.

As for ‘track’, I know the ‘spaghetti’ models are all over the Gulf. From the pressure fields it looks like it will remain in the southern Gulf, and may even head a little south (towards land) tomorrow.

I’ll keep an eye on this Odd Couple and be back tomorrow. Here’s a psychological question to ponder: are you a Felix or an Oscar? I'm sure someone must have done a thesis on this! ;-)

Toodle pippy!
J.  

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Humberto and the Yucatan Blob: September 17, Update A

Looks like we have another little blob brewing in the Yucatan/Mexico region. Just what they need! Still, the Yucatan Blob is not yet quite as ugly as the Blobfish, which was named the ugliest animal in the world by the “Ugly Animal Preservation Society” (thanks to Elizabeth H. for this one):

A face only a mother could love, hey? ;-) Looks like a goblin from Labyrinth to me. Kinda cute in a grumpy sort of way don't you think? ;-) In case you were wondering, "The Ugly Animal Preservation Society is dedicated to raising the profile of some of Mother Nature’s more aesthetically challenged children.  The panda gets too much attention." (http://uglyanimalsoc.com/).

Tropical Storm Humberto
Officially Humberto continues to be a very weak Tropical Storm with winds of 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1007mb. He is at 30.8N, 43.3W heading NNW at 7mph, on his way to visit beautiful Iceland over the weekend. Or possibly the UK. Somewhere yonder anyway.

My opinion on Humberto remains the same as yesterday. There is really not much convection in this system as you can see from the infrared satellite image:

He does have some circulation in the lowest half of the troposphere, but it is not as well defined in the upper troposphere. He is really teetering on that edge of being a Tropical Storm, but I am not convinced that he actually is one.

Yucatan Blob
This little blob started in the Caribbean, near Belize, and is more-or-less over land (the Yucatan peninsula in case you were wondering ;-)). It is difficult to tell really because he is not very well formed. The NHC give him a 60% chance of developing into a Tropical Storm in the next two days as he moves out and over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A lot of his current convection is because the upper 150-175m (!) of the ocean in the western Caribbean is warmer than 26.5 deg C! (By the way, this is about as deep as that warm water gets anywhere in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico):

Although there is more convection here than in Tropical Storm Humberto, there is considerably less circulation. He still has to cross the Yucatan before he has a chance to develop and the next name would be Jerry. But of course with all this convection, I agree with the NHC, whether or not he will actually become a Tropical Storm, he will dump more rain over a rather rain-soaked Mexico.

Time for a night-cap and some perusing of the Ugly Animal Preservation Society website... sweet dreams! ;-)
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Ingrid and Tropical Storm Humberto: September 16, Update A

Overall, I’d say we’ve had better news days. Definitely time for a big cup of tea with a lemon shortbread biscuit. Followed by a handful of those little chocolates shaped as bottles with itsy bitsy liquors inside… ;-)

Tropical Depression Ingrid

Ingrid made landfall early this morning (around 7am) as a Tropical Storm at La Pesca, Mexico, officially with winds of about 65mph. Although the highest winds recorded on the ground in in La Pesca was around 50mph! She’s really been a rain event and, although she is just a Tropical Depression now, she continues to drop buckets of rain as you can see in this infrared image:

She is located around 23.7N, 99.4W heading westward at 5mph. Winds are down to 30mph, central pressure 1006mb. She made landfall less than 24 hours after TS Manuel hit Mexico. Unfortunately so far between the two storms at least 40 people have lost their lives (I think Manuel had the bigger impact).

I do believe this will be my last update on Ingrid.

Tropical Storm Humberto

So far the NHC had been spot on with their assessment of Humberto. I think today is the first day I disagree. He is officially barely a Tropical Storm with winds of 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1005mb. He is at 27N, 43.3W and is stationary. I don’t think he is a Tropical Storm at all (and the NHC have him really at the borderline with winds of 40mph). First, there is very little convection:

And second, the vorticity (circulation) in the middle of the troposphere is not contained as we’ve seen in tropical storms, but is really an extended area, as you can see in this image of vorticity from the University of Wisconsin:

So, in my not very humble and sometimes rather boisterous opinion, not a tropical storm methinks!  

There is another little blob in the Yucatan area, but it doesn’t look like much more than rain at the moment. I’ll be back with more tomorrow, I’m sure. My condolences to those who lost loved ones in the last 24 hours - from man-made or natural storms.

Ciao for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Ingrid and the Atlantic Blob Humberto: September 15, Update A

I assume you all know by now that Dr. Who is a reality TV show? It turns out that the Time Lord’s “TARDIS”, which looks like a blue Police Box is real! Here is the TARDIS in Wales in 2013 (from Mama Alpi :-)):

And here is the TARDIS as it appeared in 1888, in the newly discovered Vincent van Gogh painting:

Thanks to io9 for this useful information! (Story at: http://io9.com/you-know-that-newfound-van-gogh-painting-has-the-tardis-1295191329). If we could only get our hands on this time machine, we’d have no trouble figuring out the hurricane season (and I'd have won the lottery by now...)! ;-)

Hurricane Ingrid

Apparently at some point last night she had winds as strong at 85mph, but I was asleep (call me lazy, but it’s something I like to do for a few hours at least once a week ;-)) so I missed that part of her development, but I did expect some intensification overnight anyway. I rejoined the story this morning, when her winds were officially back down to 75mph (central pressure 987mb) and she looked like this in the visible and IR satellite images:

Not quite what I expect a hurricane to look like in the satellite images! And this is acknowledged by the NHC too: “ALTHOUGH INGRID DOES NOT RESEMBLE A CLASSIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE PICTURES”. She does have pretty good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere and there is a very little bit in the upper troposphere, so it almost looks like she’s teetering on the edge of strong Tropical Storm/weak cat 1 storm now.  However, if you look in the middle levels of the troposphere, she does not really have a tropical storm structure (and hence not a hurricane) because her vorticity is no longer an isolated blob:

It looks like she is getting some of her oomph (technical term ;-)) from other parts of the atmosphere, including TS Manuel, which made landfall near Manzanillo this morning with winds of about 70mph, and brought about 22.4” (569mm) of rain in 24-hours in Chilpancingo, Mexico.

Ingrid is now centered at 22.9N, 96.1W in the Gulf, heading NW at a very very slow 3mph and is expected to make landfall tomorrow. For Mexico, Ingrid, along with TS Manuel, means rain, floods, landslides:

(photo of TS Manuel impact in Mexico from the BBC today: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-24098184). To be hit by two storms (even if they are Tropical Storms) on two consecutive days is tough!

Atlantic Blob Humberto

The NHC give him an 80% chance of re-developing into a Tropical Storm. He is currently centered close to 27N, 40.8W, heading in a North-westward direction. It does look like he is trying to re-develop, but the convection has not yet fully returned and he doesn’t look like a Tropical Storm:

Water temperatures are now around 27 deg C, so they are warm enough for convection to be generated, but it looks like there is some more dry air now which has prevented the convection from returning fully. There is very strong wind shear, so this convection is mostly to the northeast of the center. Wind shear looks like it will remain strong for at least another day (possibly a little longer). There is also very little circulation in the middle levels of the troposphere (from image above), so further proof that he is not quite a Tropical Storm.

More fascinating insights tomorrow! (and good luck to the Mexicans!!).

Adieu,
J.   

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Post-Tropical Low Humberto and Hurricane Ingrid: September 14, Update A

For the second time this season, I have news! At some point last night my blog website crossed the 60,000 hits mark!! This means it has had 10,000 views with only 25 new entries and in just under 3 months (50,000 was June 20)! Thank you all for reading (…or at least clicking on the page ;-)). I am fortunate to have such intelligent, witty, and wonderful readers like you! J I shall drink wine and be merry later today to celebrate. J

Post-Tropical Low Humberto

The NHC downgraded Mr. Humberto Humperdink (no relation to Englebert ;-)) to a post-tropical low pressure system in their 11am advisory this morning because, although he has a bit of circulation, there hasn’t been any convection in the system (as you saw yesterday). I think this was a good call. He is moving WNW at 13mph, has winds close to 40mph and a central pressure of 1004mb and is currently at around 25.7N, 36.6W. The track forecast is a general WNW-NW movement in the next couple of days, and then he’ll turn to the north again. Seems reasonable to me at the moment.

You can see the circulation in this visible satellite image, in which there are still light clouds lurking (with a patch of heavier ones in the northeast):

The NHC still think he will be a Tropical Storm again by tomorrow evening and a Hurricane by Weds evening. I am not yet as convinced about this, although there are a couple of things that may flip the Tropical Storm switch (not the hurricane switch). The circulation in the middle troposphere continues to decrease and he is in a region of strong wind shear which doesn’t look like it will go away by tomorrow. However, it looks like he will be moving over slightly warmer water temperatures  (just over 26 deg C) and there is a little more water vapor in the air. It will be a battle between these forces of good and darkness! ;-)

Hurricane Ingrid

Really?!? A hurricane? I guess she was upgraded in a rush to check off another hurricane on the numbers list!! Although there is some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, there isn’t enough in the upper troposphere to make this a hurricane! She has been lingering over warm water (she was stationary yesterday), so she has had time to get her ducks in order and become a tropical storm by separating from the Tropical Storm on the Pacific side of Mexico (TS Manuel – which is another story!), but she is not yet a hurricane! Not only that, but this upgrade was been done before the hurricane hunter plane reached the system because they saw an eye in the visible satellite image:

Do YOU see an eye??? I’ve looked at the movie loop of satellite images for the last ~7 hours, and there is a small shadow that one could squint at and pretend was an eye. It appeared for one snapshot, but it quickly lost that shadow and it hasn’t returned. One data point is not enough to upgrade a storm!!!

I do agree that the convection is very strong, and you can see that in this I satellite image:

but the water is warm and she’s a tropical storm now, so of course this is no surprise.   

She is currently at around 21.3N, 94.4W, officially heading N at 7mph. Winds are officially 75mph (grr), central pressure is estimated to be 987mb (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). The forecast track takes her a little more north, and she’ll turn west and into Mexico, making landfall on Monday afternoon. I agree with the track direction, although they also say they are not 100% sure of the timing of landfall – she may be a little slower.

I do think their current estimate of intensity is high but it does look like there is room for her to intensify further. Sea surface temperatures are 28-30 deg C, with water warmer than 26.5 deg C in the upper 75m. So she has warm water aplenty. There is also plenty of water vapor around:

Interestingly, this water vapor is partly from a storm that’s just off the left edge of the map, in the eastern Pacific – Tropical Storm Manuel – which is aiming for a west Mexico landfall tomorrow. There is some wind shear at the moment, which looks like it will weaken a little in the next day or so. The one factor she has against intensification is that she is interacting with land, but with rain from Manuel and rain from Ingrid, I don’t think that will amount to much of a factor before landfall.

I’ll be back tomorrow with an update on what’s what and who’s who and why’s why.  

Have a good evening… it’s wine-o-clock where I am, so I will have a good evening too! J

J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storms Humberto and Ingrid: September 13, Update A

It’s Friday the 13th!... and what a crazy long week this was! Definitely time for a second glass of wine. And possibly a bit of fried banana cheesecake with vanilla ice cream. Yum yum! :-) I‘m going to ignore the (now) low pressure formerly known as Gabrielle because I can (she’s bringing some splotches of rain to Canada) and we’ll move straight onto the other two. It seems like the only sensible thing to do.

Tropical Storm Humberto

He took a rapid nose-dive today and is now a weak Tropical Storm with winds of 45mph, estimated central pressure 999mb (TS range: 39-73mph). He is at 24.8N, 33.0W, heading on the forecasted track of W at 9mph. It looks like the wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures (24 deg C) and dry air all took their toll. You can just about see him in this infrared satellite image of the Atlantic:

There is no convection to speak of (nothing in the oranges or reds)! He still does have circulation in the lower half of the troposphere but nothing in the upper troposphere anymore, which is what we expect for a Tropical Storm. And as you all know about vorticity (circulation) because you all read and memorized my entry yesterday (didn’t you? ;-)), you can see his circulation for yourself! Here is the vorticity ‘map’ (University of Wisconsin) from the upper level of the troposphere:

Comparing this to the plot from yesterday (when he was a hurricane):

you can see the signal that was in the upper levels of the troposphere has vanished. However, as I said, he still does have circulation in the lower half of the troposphere as you can see in the vorticity from the middle of the troposphere:

Given the circulation, but no convection, I think even 45mph may be a little over-estimate. The NHC have him strengthening and becoming a hurricane again next Wednesday. I don’t see this happening – the waters will remain cool, there is still dry air and wind shear. I don’t know if he will survive much beyond tomorrow actually.        

Tropical Storm Ingrid

This one is a little tricky! I see the Tropical Storm designation of Ingrid as more of a conflict between people underestimating nature and scientific accuracy.  Officially she is at 19.2N, 95.2W, and is stationary. Her winds are officially at 60mph (central pressure 993mb), which makes her a mid-intensity storm. She may have been a Tropical Storm for a few hours today, but I am not fully convinced and she’s definitely not one now. Today she has been partly over warm water and that is generating a lot of convection, including some strong thunderstorms (which we see in the summer months in the tropics anyway) with strong winds. She also does have some circulation, but it hasn’t really been as fully isolated as we see in tropical storms – e.g. Humberto. As you can see from the vorticity in the middle of the troposphere (above), she is now well and truly part of a line of vorticity that extends into the Pacific, so she really isn’t a tropical storm in structure at all!

The reason I say this is a tricky one is because there is certainly a lot of strong convection (thundery weather) because of the warm water, so I’m sure there are areas of strong wind. Keeping her at the Tropical Storm designation is probably for the best in terms of alerting people in Mexico to the stormy weather, however speaking with my science hat on, I would have to disagree with this designation.

That’s it for now!
Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle, Hurricane Humberto, Tropical Depression 10, and the sound of interstellar space!: September 12, Update A

Bravo to all those who worked on Voyager. What an awesome achievement! As a tribute, this entry will be out of this solar system and we will boldly go where no spacecraft has gone before. By the way, have you heard the sound of interstellar space yet? If not, listen here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIAZWb9_si4&feature=youtu.be. I think the translation so far is: “People of Earth, your attention, please. This is Prostetnic Vogon Jeltz of the Galactic Hyperspace Planning Council.” Great. The first interstellar contact and it’s a planning council?? Really? Hmm… I wonder what they want? ;-) (HGTTG)

Tropical Storm Gabrielle

Meanwhile, here on planet Earth we have Hurricane Humberto, Tropical Storm Gabrielle, and Tropical Depression 10. You can see all three of them in this IR satellite image of the Atlantic:

What do you mean you can’t see three? Look again: Humberto is on the left, Gabrielle is close to the northern edge of the image, and TD10 is over Mexico. Still can’t see Tropical Storm Gabrielle? Hmm. Apparently the NHC can see her quite clearly. Well let’s look at the circulation shall we? Surely she must have as much, if not more, circulation than a Tropical Depression?

<Science Alert!> As I mentioned a couple of months ago, the troposphere is the lowest level of our atmosphere (http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2013/06/gulf-of-mexico-blobette-june-4-update-a.html). Any type of stormy weather has a defined vorticity (circulation) signal in the troposphere. Low pressure fronts look different compared to tropical storms. You can tell how strong a tropical storm is depending on how strong the vorticity is, and how high into the troposphere that signal can be seen. A Tropical Storm ALWAYS has a vorticity signal that reaches the middle of the troposphere (around 500mb) because this indicates that there is some deep convection (big thundery clouds). <End Science Alert!>

This is an image that represents the vorticity (circulation) in the troposphere (from the University of Wisconsin):

These plots are a little tricky to interpret so don’t think that all red patches are tropical storms, because they aren’t. But you can easily see Humberto on the left. A nice, strong round signal – pretty strong middle-troposphere circulation which is what you would expect for a Hurricane. There’s TD10 just hanging onto the southern Gulf of Mexico – not as well defined as Humberto and not a contained blob, so really not a Tropical Storm, but there is a bit of red so there is something there. But Gabrielle!! <Rant Alert!!> It’s blue!! BLUE!! That means there is NO deep convection in this storm… there is no way this is a Tropical Storm!! I can’t believe someone thought it was and renamed it!! NO convection, NO circulation!! What were they thinking?!?! In that case, we have stronger ‘Tropical Storms’ over Florida on an almost daily basis!! Oh, maybe those clouds in the middle of the Atlantic should have names too while we’re at it! Wow!!.....!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <End Rant!>

She’s officially supposedly at 35.1N, 67.7W, moving NNE at 10mph, winds are 40mph (very weak), central pressure 1008mb.

And that’s all I have to say about Gabrielle. Harumph. And ner.   

Hurricane Humberto

As badly mis-diagnosed as Gabrielle is, the NHC are on track with Humberto. Not only does he have convection (see satellite image above) and circulation in the middle of the troposphere as you’ve seen, but he also has a signal in the upper troposphere:

Although the dry air and wind shear is taking its toll today, the NHC estimate his wind speed to be about 80mph, central pressure 984mb. This makes him a weak-to-mid-strength cat 1 (range: 74-95mph). He is at 23.4N, 29.7W, heading NNW at 12mph. All this looks groovy to me. No rants required. I agree with the NHC forecast track of continued northward movement and the gradual turn to a more westward movement in 24 hours. I also agree with a gradual weakening, and it is quite possible that he’ll be a very weak cat 1 or a very strong Tropical Storm by this time tomorrow.

Tropical Depression 10

Again, you’ve seen that this blobette has some circulation in the middle troposphere, but it doesn’t have that well-contained area of vorticity that we see with a storm, which means it doesn’t quite have to right structure to be a tropical storm yet. She is also interacting with land and has some wind shear, so I’m not sure it will get to tropical storm status unless it moves farther into the Gulf. There is certainly a large area of convection, but that is because she is interacting with some very warm waters – the sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are over 28 deg C, with water warmer than 26.5 deg C in the upper 75-100m in some parts.   

I’ll be back again with more on some of these storms tomorrow. In the meantime, I see there has been some flooding in Colorado… from fires to floods all in one year!! Stay safe out there my peeps!

Night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Gabrielle, Hurricane Humberto, and a p.s. about the potential Gulf Blob: September 11, Update A

Tiring meeting and travel day today so this will be short - well, shorter than yesterday anyway! (I can hear you cheering from here you know! ;-)).

Tropical Depression Gabrielle

She is now a Tropical Depression with winds of 35mph, central pressure 1010mb. She is at 33.0N, 67.0W, meandering generally WNW at 6mph (obviously she’d had one too many Dark & Stormys as she went past Bermuda!). Speaking of Bermuda, I missed another report from the island yesterday from Roydon T., who also sent a couple of lovely photos taken yesterday at around 5.30pm of Devonshire Bay on the south side of Bermuda:

It looks lovely and dramatic and reminds me of the waters off Devonshire, UK (where I used to live) on a nice blustery day. J Thanks for the lovely pics Roydon! (and thanks to Helene M. for helping to get his message through).

As for Gabrielle, she has some circulation in the lowest section of the troposphere, but nothing much in the middle level anymore. As for convection, looking at this IR satellite image, I’d say you would get more by having a 1 minute shower at home!

The NHC forecast keeps her as a Tropical Depression for the next 24 hours, and then they say she will try (for the third time!) to be a Tropical Storm on Friday as she gets to Newfoundland. Hmm. I’m not sure about this scenario. She is looking rather wimpy at the moment, and by then she’ll be over cooler waters (25 deg C or less). Our other on-the-ground reporter, Steve B. sent a message at 8.17am: Heavy drizzle. Little wind. I think we can kiss this baby goodbye. Which is precisely what I plan on doing… this is my last entry on Gabrielle (unless she really does try again... I suppose).

Hurricane Humberto

Hello Hurricane Humberto! Phew. We got one in the bag! ;-)

He is currently at 19.1N, 29.0W, heading N at 13mph. I agree with this and also with the NHC official approximate track forecast for the next couple of days in which he continues north and then begins to turn towards the west again as the high pressure builds up again to the north.

Winds are officially 85mph, central pressure is 982mb. This makes him a mid-strength cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). His circulation is still good throughout the entire troposphere, so I agree with his hurricane designation. I actually also agree with their estimate of intensity for now! Here’s a lovely infrared satellite image of the Atlantic in which you can see our hefty Humberto (although he’s not as hefty as he could be because of bits of dry air):

All this being agreeable… I must be tired!! ;-) Best call it a night (mostly because it is night, so it would be a bit silly to call it day). More tomorrow, of course.

Adieu!
J.

p.s. Potential Gulf Blobette: You can also see the newest blobette everyone is watching in the image of the Atlantic – it’s that broad area of not very well organized convection over the Yucatan. The circulation isn’t much to talk about either (yet). Next name will be Ingrid if she develops. I’ll have a proper look tomorrow.   

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storms Gabrielle and Humberto: September 10, Update B

Not much time for dilly dallying with two pesky storms out and about, so I’ll jump straight to the business at hand…

Tropical Storm Gabrielle

Officially she is currently at 32.0N, 65.0W, heading N at 8mph. Winds are 60mph, central pressure is 1004mb. With winds of 60mph, this makes her a medium intensity storm (TS range: 39-73mph). She is passing pretty much over Bermuda...

… that poor little island, right in the middle of the circle known as Gabrielle. The same island that the NHC wrote about at 8pm AST: “...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON BERMUDA AS GABRIELLE APPROACHES...” and at 11pm AST said: ...GABRIELLE SLOWS AS IT NEARS BERMUDA... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... “.

Awww. <insert that screechy sound of a record scratching to a halt> Wait! Are they referring to this little island that experienced, at the most, a few relatively light rain showers at 6pm AST and that, by 11pm AST, had hardly any rain at all?

Or maybe they are talking about the wind speeds on Bermuda? Those strong sustained winds… that barely reached 40mph according to ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS on the island (gusts were stronger of course, but that’s not a sign of a tropical storm):

Or maybe it’s the island from which I received numerous weather reports throughout the day from our fabulous and diligent on-the-ground reporter, Steven B.?

11:52am: I’ll write to you about the storm tonight. It’s breezy and overcast but very little rain yet.
3:47pm: Still not raining and the wind has abated somewhat.  Hardly storm of the century stuff.
8:32pm: Well it’s starting to rain. Not heavily and the strong winds (25-30 knots) are blowing the rain away. High winds. Making a lot of noise at the tree tops but not much below.
9:09pm: Nothing here J, just a bit of rain and wind.  You wouldn’t worry too much if you left your raincoat at home.
9:49pm: Going to bed mate. No wind no rain

Not really a compelling case for ‘tropical storm conditions’ on Bermuda, is it?

I think she is barely a tropical storm now. There is some convection and strong circulation, but really only in the very lowest levels of the troposphere – even the structure in the middle of the troposphere is more like a front than a tropical storm. She is experiencing strong wind shear (and is heading into stronger wind shear) which is pulling her apart. Sea surface water temperatures are around 27 deg C. Definitely warm enough to keep her going for a little longer, but the warm water is in a very shallow layer near the surface – maybe the upper 10m – so nothing to make her get any stronger.

More tomorrow on the continuing saga of this poor misunderstood storm. Now for the next one…

Tropical Storm Humberto

Officially he is currently at 15.4N, 28.4W, heading NW at 7mph. Winds are 70mph, central pressure estimated to be 995mb.

Well I reckon the NHC missed the hurricane boat on this one! Just imagine if they had been on board, they could have checked ‘hurricane’ off their 2013 to-do list! I really think Humberto was a hurricane yesterday evening. I also wonder if the NHC were thinking about that this morning. From their 11am advisory:

“SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS STOPPED INTENSIFYING... AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED THAT THE STORM HAD A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS SINCE DISSOLVED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A LARGER BUT BROKEN INNER BAND OF CONVECTION.  IN SOME SENSE...THIS SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...EXCEPT THAT HUMBERTO IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.”

An eye? An eyewall replacement? Walks like a Hurricane, sounds like a Hurricane, had the circulation signal throughout the troposphere of a Hurricane, had the convection of a Hurricane. Must be a Tropical Storm. Sigh.

And of course, as their luck would have it, today he encountered some dry air which really inhibited his development so NOW he really is a Tropical Storm!

He did remain on a little more westward track, making a move to the northwest quite late in the day today. However, this is still more-or-less within the cone so I'm good with that track. I also agree with the northward motion for now because the high pressure in front of him and to his north has dissipated. I’ll go with the official track for the next two days... assuming he survives…

From this satellite image of water vapor, we see that as he moves north he runs into a little problem that we in the business like to call ‘dry air’. We saw the effect of this today in slowing his development and decreasing his convection. We’ll see how he fares but I wouldn’t be overly surprised if the NHC decide to cross the barrier and upgrade him to hurricane tomorrow – the circulation is still pretty good throughout the troposphere, although it is a little less defined in the lower troposphere compared to yesterday.  

That’s all for today. What a lark. Goodness me.  I’ll be back for more giggles (maybe even some from Bermuda) tomorrow.

Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle: September 10, Update A

Just a quick update for the newly re-formed TS Gabrielle, who apparently found some lip-gloss overnight and is now planning to party in Bermuda tonight. She is pretty weak as far as winds go, but I do agree with the TS upgrade because the circulation is now looking good for the lower half of the troposphere (nothing in the upper troposphere so not a hurricane).

Although sea surface temperatures are warm (27 deg C), only the upper ~20m are warmer than 26.5C (so it’s pretty shallow warm water) and it looks like she is being impacted by wind shear. Her center is definitely southwest of the convection, and her clouds are skewed in a southwest/northeast direction as you can see in this visible satellite:

Just in (noon, EST) from Steven B. on Bermuda: “It’s breezy and overcast but very little rain yet.” It won’t be a big wind event on Bermuda, mostly rainy. Time to brush out the cobwebs from your wellie boots!

More later (on Gabrielle and Humberto).
Ciao for now,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Humberto: September 9, Update A

Hey hey hey… it looks like we have our first hurricane of the season! Although the NHC still have him as a Tropical Storm with winds of 60mph (TS range: 39-73mph), Humberto’s circulation is very strong in the lower half of the troposphere and he is the first storm this season (that I recall) that even has circulation in the upper troposphere – enough to classify him as a very weak cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). I’d estimate his winds to be in the 75-80mph range already (but definitely not yet as high as 90mph).

He also has very strong convection in the center, as you can see in this infrared satellite image:

He is currently at around 13.9N, 25.9W, heading WNW at 10mph. Central pressure is 1000mb.

There is a little wind shear but not a lot and it doesn’t look like it will pick up tomorrow either. He is moving over waters with sea surface temperatures around 28-30 deg C - definitely warm enough to keep him going. I think he will continue to intensify – even the air around him is full of water vapor, and not that dry dusty stuff that was inhibiting storms earlier this season (which is, by the way, one of the reasons why they didn’t form (there are a couple of others, as I’ve mentioned throughout this season)…)

As for track, to me it looks like he will continue generally westward for now, although not at a very quick pace because there is an area of high pressure in front of him. The official track takes him to the north almost immediately and by this time tomorrow he will be heading almost due north:

Since the last half of last year I think the NHC have generally had a pretty good assessment of the track within 2 days (with very few exceptions).  For me it is a little tricky to tell where he will go because of this high pressure, so I’m not yet convinced that this is the track he will take: I think he may head westward for a little longer.

I definitely do see an alliterative future for Humberto! J

I’ll be back tomorrow!
Night night!
J.

(p.s. I’m watching that blobette in the Atlantic too… the remains of Gabrielle… she doesn’t have a very good structure at the moment, even though she’s a bit on the cloudy side of the er cloud spectrum ;-) ).  

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Low Gabrielle: September 5, Update A

Well that was a complete waste of a name! It looks like “Tropical Storm” Gabrielle didn’t quite separate from her Atlantic blobby brother, so she was downgraded to a Tropical Depression about 12 hours after she was named, and that 12 hours is only because they named her too soon and were making sure she really didn’t develop. I don’t think she ever really achieved Tropical Storm status!   

<Editorial Rant Alert!> Over the last few days I’ve heard a lot about the gloriously inactive hurricane season we are having. Although the season isn’t over, I am a bit miffed (British understatement) at those who said with such certainty that this would be an above active season, and are now scratching their heads, wondering why they don’t know everything. I’ve said this for years, but I’m not above boring you all with a broken record (don’t you love these really old phrases ;-)): making those stupid number predictions at the beginning of a season when you don’t fully understand what is going on is just asking everyone to doubt your knowledge! (Psst, in case you need a clue… the full impact of the ocean and dry Saharan air are still being overlooked). As Mark Twain said: “It's better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt.” (says she whilst opening her mouth! ;-)) If the financial experts went around saying that market stocks would crash this season, but they didn’t (or vice versa), would you believe them and invest next season? If we are to meet the lower end of those forecasts, we would have to have a named hurricane almost every week from now until the end of the season! It’s not impossible of course, and we may even have some major hurricanes, but it really is time to stop the quite meaningless number games. <End Editorial Rant Alert!>

Back to this “Don’t-call-me-Gabrielle” Tropical Low… she was last officially seen at 19N, 68.5W, heading NNW at 9mph. Central pressure was 1010mb, winds were 30mph. I don’t agree. From this image, does it look like there is anything like a center near 19N, 68.5W?

Nope. She didn’t move much earlier today, and then decided to head more northward, over Puerto Rico. She is just a rain event really. I have a few reports today (merged into one) from our great on-the-ground reporter, Tom, from St. Thomas:

‘Up until last night the rain showers were gentle and manageable, no wind since Sunday however. Best part of this system has been the last two days driving down the temp as the dry hot air curtailing and stalling the system must have passed through. It has been ungodly hot for weeks here and finally some relief...  yea we lucked out with this system...getting our cisterns full, gardens watered and no environmental damage. If you ever have to rescue us with a boat, load it with that wine you like so much!’

And the last one, an hour ago:

“You might want to get ready on that boat, the system is drifting to the east over us and raining like cats and dogs with no relief for a few hours at best.”

Stay afloat out there!
I think this will be my last word on Gabrielle unless she makes a return!

Toodles until the next one (Humberto)…
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle: September 4, Update A

I guess the halcyon days of the hurricane season are over! We have Tropical Storm Gabrielle out there, swirling away in the northeast Caribbean. Although I’ve been on another planet (let’s just call it ‘Atlanta’ to protect the innocent) for the last few days, I have been monitoring the Atlantic with my super ‘They Live’ glasses. (By the way, I *just* saw this classic movie… where have I been? My eyes have been opened! ;-)).

Over the last few days, TS Gabrielle had a conjoined twin, the blob in the Atlantic, just outside the Caribbean (the yellow part):

Together, these Wonder Twins, have been creating a lot of convection over the northeastern Antilles, but that’s because these blobs have been hanging out over some rather warm water. If you look at the infra-red satellite image, it looks like there is more going on with the Atlantic blob – very strong thunderstorms and all that jazz:

However, you should never judge a book by its cover, e.g.:

(!!!! Although I do secretly think this is rather funny! ;-))

The circulation has slowly been improving since yesterday and now we know who the dominant twin is… the Caribbean wins! Although the circulation is still pretty good in both of these at the lowest level of the troposphere, as you move up in the troposphere, the circulation for TS Gabrielle is much better than her twin. I think she is actually still a Tropical Depression, but the NHC have moved ahead with upgrading her. Strictly speaking, she will be a fully-fledged TS once she separates in the lowest level (by tomorrow I reckon), but we’ve not had anything much going on for such a long time (days and days), that we may as well charge ahead… and at least this sets up the correct warnings and procedures for a Tropical Storm!

Officially, Gabrielle is currently located at 17N, 66.6W (uh-oh, 666 huh? ;-)) and she’s moving NW at a stately 8mph. She’s very weak with winds of 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1008mb.

The track forecast has her moving northwest, over the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic tomorrow evening. I’m not sure yet that this is quite how things will work out, but it’s difficult to say because she really is quite weak. There is a good possibility that she may not clip the DR, but may head a little more northward, over Puerto Rico and out into the Atlantic. However, there is also a chance that she will slow down and get stuck in that region for a little longer than expected. I don’t have enough data to make a good assessment on this. I can say though that she, with a little help from her louder but more disorganized twin, will be bringing rain, followed by a splash of rain, to those Caribbean islands!

I’ll be back tomorrow with more. But in the meantime, here are a couple of lines from a 17^th century poet, Michael Drayton, with a very early use of that lovely word, ‘halcyon’, (about 400 years ago):
There came the halcyon, whom the sea obeys
When she her nest upon the water lays.

Ciao!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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