Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Tropical Storm Humberto and the Yucatan Blob: September 17, Update A

Looks like we have another little blob brewing in the Yucatan/Mexico region. Just what they need! Still, the Yucatan Blob is not yet quite as ugly as the Blobfish, which was named the ugliest animal in the world by the “Ugly Animal Preservation Society” (thanks to Elizabeth H. for this one):

A face only a mother could love, hey? ;-) Looks like a goblin from Labyrinth to me. Kinda cute in a grumpy sort of way don't you think? ;-) In case you were wondering, "The Ugly Animal Preservation Society is dedicated to raising the profile of some of Mother Nature’s more aesthetically challenged children.  The panda gets too much attention." (http://uglyanimalsoc.com/).

Tropical Storm Humberto
Officially Humberto continues to be a very weak Tropical Storm with winds of 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1007mb. He is at 30.8N, 43.3W heading NNW at 7mph, on his way to visit beautiful Iceland over the weekend. Or possibly the UK. Somewhere yonder anyway.

My opinion on Humberto remains the same as yesterday. There is really not much convection in this system as you can see from the infrared satellite image:

He does have some circulation in the lowest half of the troposphere, but it is not as well defined in the upper troposphere. He is really teetering on that edge of being a Tropical Storm, but I am not convinced that he actually is one.

Yucatan Blob
This little blob started in the Caribbean, near Belize, and is more-or-less over land (the Yucatan peninsula in case you were wondering ;-)). It is difficult to tell really because he is not very well formed. The NHC give him a 60% chance of developing into a Tropical Storm in the next two days as he moves out and over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A lot of his current convection is because the upper 150-175m (!) of the ocean in the western Caribbean is warmer than 26.5 deg C! (By the way, this is about as deep as that warm water gets anywhere in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico):

Although there is more convection here than in Tropical Storm Humberto, there is considerably less circulation. He still has to cross the Yucatan before he has a chance to develop and the next name would be Jerry. But of course with all this convection, I agree with the NHC, whether or not he will actually become a Tropical Storm, he will dump more rain over a rather rain-soaked Mexico.

Time for a night-cap and some perusing of the Ugly Animal Preservation Society website... sweet dreams! ;-)

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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