Sunday, September 15, 2013

Hurricane Ingrid and the Atlantic Blob Humberto: September 15, Update A

I assume you all know by now that Dr. Who is a reality TV show? It turns out that the Time Lord’s “TARDIS”, which looks like a blue Police Box is real! Here is the TARDIS in Wales in 2013 (from Mama Alpi :-)):

And here is the TARDIS as it appeared in 1888, in the newly discovered Vincent van Gogh painting:

Thanks to io9 for this useful information! (Story at: If we could only get our hands on this time machine, we’d have no trouble figuring out the hurricane season (and I'd have won the lottery by now...)! ;-)

Hurricane Ingrid

Apparently at some point last night she had winds as strong at 85mph, but I was asleep (call me lazy, but it’s something I like to do for a few hours at least once a week ;-)) so I missed that part of her development, but I did expect some intensification overnight anyway. I rejoined the story this morning, when her winds were officially back down to 75mph (central pressure 987mb) and she looked like this in the visible and IR satellite images:

Not quite what I expect a hurricane to look like in the satellite images! And this is acknowledged by the NHC too: “ALTHOUGH INGRID DOES NOT RESEMBLE A CLASSIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE PICTURES”. She does have pretty good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere and there is a very little bit in the upper troposphere, so it almost looks like she’s teetering on the edge of strong Tropical Storm/weak cat 1 storm now.  However, if you look in the middle levels of the troposphere, she does not really have a tropical storm structure (and hence not a hurricane) because her vorticity is no longer an isolated blob:

It looks like she is getting some of her oomph (technical term ;-)) from other parts of the atmosphere, including TS Manuel, which made landfall near Manzanillo this morning with winds of about 70mph, and brought about 22.4” (569mm) of rain in 24-hours in Chilpancingo, Mexico.

Ingrid is now centered at 22.9N, 96.1W in the Gulf, heading NW at a very very slow 3mph and is expected to make landfall tomorrow. For Mexico, Ingrid, along with TS Manuel, means rain, floods, landslides:

(photo of TS Manuel impact in Mexico from the BBC today: To be hit by two storms (even if they are Tropical Storms) on two consecutive days is tough!

Atlantic Blob Humberto

The NHC give him an 80% chance of re-developing into a Tropical Storm. He is currently centered close to 27N, 40.8W, heading in a North-westward direction. It does look like he is trying to re-develop, but the convection has not yet fully returned and he doesn’t look like a Tropical Storm:

Water temperatures are now around 27 deg C, so they are warm enough for convection to be generated, but it looks like there is some more dry air now which has prevented the convection from returning fully. There is very strong wind shear, so this convection is mostly to the northeast of the center. Wind shear looks like it will remain strong for at least another day (possibly a little longer). There is also very little circulation in the middle levels of the troposphere (from image above), so further proof that he is not quite a Tropical Storm.

More fascinating insights tomorrow! (and good luck to the Mexicans!!).


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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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