Monday, September 16, 2013

Tropical Depression Ingrid and Tropical Storm Humberto: September 16, Update A

Overall, I’d say we’ve had better news days. Definitely time for a big cup of tea with a lemon shortbread biscuit. Followed by a handful of those little chocolates shaped as bottles with itsy bitsy liquors inside… ;-)

Tropical Depression Ingrid

Ingrid made landfall early this morning (around 7am) as a Tropical Storm at La Pesca, Mexico, officially with winds of about 65mph. Although the highest winds recorded on the ground in in La Pesca was around 50mph! She’s really been a rain event and, although she is just a Tropical Depression now, she continues to drop buckets of rain as you can see in this infrared image:

She is located around 23.7N, 99.4W heading westward at 5mph. Winds are down to 30mph, central pressure 1006mb. She made landfall less than 24 hours after TS Manuel hit Mexico. Unfortunately so far between the two storms at least 40 people have lost their lives (I think Manuel had the bigger impact).

I do believe this will be my last update on Ingrid.

Tropical Storm Humberto

So far the NHC had been spot on with their assessment of Humberto. I think today is the first day I disagree. He is officially barely a Tropical Storm with winds of 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1005mb. He is at 27N, 43.3W and is stationary. I don’t think he is a Tropical Storm at all (and the NHC have him really at the borderline with winds of 40mph). First, there is very little convection:

And second, the vorticity (circulation) in the middle of the troposphere is not contained as we’ve seen in tropical storms, but is really an extended area, as you can see in this image of vorticity from the University of Wisconsin:

So, in my not very humble and sometimes rather boisterous opinion, not a tropical storm methinks!  

There is another little blob in the Yucatan area, but it doesn’t look like much more than rain at the moment. I’ll be back with more tomorrow, I’m sure. My condolences to those who lost loved ones in the last 24 hours - from man-made or natural storms.

Ciao for now!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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