Thursday, September 05, 2013

Tropical Low Gabrielle: September 5, Update A

Well that was a complete waste of a name! It looks like “Tropical Storm” Gabrielle didn’t quite separate from her Atlantic blobby brother, so she was downgraded to a Tropical Depression about 12 hours after she was named, and that 12 hours is only because they named her too soon and were making sure she really didn’t develop. I don’t think she ever really achieved Tropical Storm status!   

<Editorial Rant Alert!> Over the last few days I’ve heard a lot about the gloriously inactive hurricane season we are having. Although the season isn’t over, I am a bit miffed (British understatement) at those who said with such certainty that this would be an above active season, and are now scratching their heads, wondering why they don’t know everything. I’ve said this for years, but I’m not above boring you all with a broken record (don’t you love these really old phrases ;-)): making those stupid number predictions at the beginning of a season when you don’t fully understand what is going on is just asking everyone to doubt your knowledge! (Psst, in case you need a clue… the full impact of the ocean and dry Saharan air are still being overlooked). As Mark Twain said: “It's better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt.” (says she whilst opening her mouth! ;-)) If the financial experts went around saying that market stocks would crash this season, but they didn’t (or vice versa), would you believe them and invest next season? If we are to meet the lower end of those forecasts, we would have to have a named hurricane almost every week from now until the end of the season! It’s not impossible of course, and we may even have some major hurricanes, but it really is time to stop the quite meaningless number games. <End Editorial Rant Alert!>

Back to this “Don’t-call-me-Gabrielle” Tropical Low… she was last officially seen at 19N, 68.5W, heading NNW at 9mph. Central pressure was 1010mb, winds were 30mph. I don’t agree. From this image, does it look like there is anything like a center near 19N, 68.5W?

Nope. She didn’t move much earlier today, and then decided to head more northward, over Puerto Rico. She is just a rain event really. I have a few reports today (merged into one) from our great on-the-ground reporter, Tom, from St. Thomas:

‘Up until last night the rain showers were gentle and manageable, no wind since Sunday however. Best part of this system has been the last two days driving down the temp as the dry hot air curtailing and stalling the system must have passed through. It has been ungodly hot for weeks here and finally some relief...  yea we lucked out with this system...getting our cisterns full, gardens watered and no environmental damage. If you ever have to rescue us with a boat, load it with that wine you like so much!’

And the last one, an hour ago:

“You might want to get ready on that boat, the system is drifting to the east over us and raining like cats and dogs with no relief for a few hours at best.”

Stay afloat out there!
I think this will be my last word on Gabrielle unless she makes a return!

Toodles until the next one (Humberto)…

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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