Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Tropical Depression Gabrielle, Hurricane Humberto, and a p.s. about the potential Gulf Blob: September 11, Update A

Tiring meeting and travel day today so this will be short - well, shorter than yesterday anyway! (I can hear you cheering from here you know! ;-)).

Tropical Depression Gabrielle

She is now a Tropical Depression with winds of 35mph, central pressure 1010mb. She is at 33.0N, 67.0W, meandering generally WNW at 6mph (obviously she’d had one too many Dark & Stormys as she went past Bermuda!). Speaking of Bermuda, I missed another report from the island yesterday from Roydon T., who also sent a couple of lovely photos taken yesterday at around 5.30pm of Devonshire Bay on the south side of Bermuda:

It looks lovely and dramatic and reminds me of the waters off Devonshire, UK (where I used to live) on a nice blustery day. J Thanks for the lovely pics Roydon! (and thanks to Helene M. for helping to get his message through).

As for Gabrielle, she has some circulation in the lowest section of the troposphere, but nothing much in the middle level anymore. As for convection, looking at this IR satellite image, I’d say you would get more by having a 1 minute shower at home!

The NHC forecast keeps her as a Tropical Depression for the next 24 hours, and then they say she will try (for the third time!) to be a Tropical Storm on Friday as she gets to Newfoundland. Hmm. I’m not sure about this scenario. She is looking rather wimpy at the moment, and by then she’ll be over cooler waters (25 deg C or less). Our other on-the-ground reporter, Steve B. sent a message at 8.17am: Heavy drizzle. Little wind. I think we can kiss this baby goodbye. Which is precisely what I plan on doing… this is my last entry on Gabrielle (unless she really does try again... I suppose).

Hurricane Humberto

Hello Hurricane Humberto! Phew. We got one in the bag! ;-)

He is currently at 19.1N, 29.0W, heading N at 13mph. I agree with this and also with the NHC official approximate track forecast for the next couple of days in which he continues north and then begins to turn towards the west again as the high pressure builds up again to the north.

Winds are officially 85mph, central pressure is 982mb. This makes him a mid-strength cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). His circulation is still good throughout the entire troposphere, so I agree with his hurricane designation. I actually also agree with their estimate of intensity for now! Here’s a lovely infrared satellite image of the Atlantic in which you can see our hefty Humberto (although he’s not as hefty as he could be because of bits of dry air):

All this being agreeable… I must be tired!! ;-) Best call it a night (mostly because it is night, so it would be a bit silly to call it day). More tomorrow, of course.


p.s. Potential Gulf Blobette: You can also see the newest blobette everyone is watching in the image of the Atlantic – it’s that broad area of not very well organized convection over the Yucatan. The circulation isn’t much to talk about either (yet). Next name will be Ingrid if she develops. I’ll have a proper look tomorrow.   

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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