Friday, August 26, 2016

Tropical Storm Gaston and the Atlantic Blobette: August 25, Update A

You guys sure like your Disney movies! Yes indeed, the Gaston song lyrics were from Beauty and the Beast (Robert H. was first past the post on that one :-)). Another sample from the song:

"No one's been like Gaston
A king pin like Gaston
No one's got a swell cleft in his chin like Gaston
As a specimen, yes, I'm intimidating
My- what a guy, that Gaston"

Thank you to Jim V. O., Marc B., and Scott D. who sent me the alternate underground lyrics...

"Nooooo ooooooone STORMS like Gaston
Makes cloud forms like Gaston
Disrupts meteorological norms like Gaston"
(originally from the twitter stream of @bastardkeith)

and the additional alternate underground lyrics...

"I'm especially good at EVACUATIONS!"  (Alex P.)

and the additional alternate alternate underground lyrics...

"I'm especially good at precipitating!" (Anthony F.)

Chuckle-o-rama! Anyway, back to the er serious side of tropical storms...  

Tropical Storm Gaston
Fortunately that wind shear we knew he was heading into did it's job and Gaston is now back to strong Tropical Storm status with winds of 65mph, central pressure of 997mb. He is at 22.8N, 46.4W, heading NW at 17mph. 

Here is the infra-red satellite image for the entire tropical Atlantic:

Gaston is the swirling mass in the center (the right-most system in this imagery). You can clearly see the effect of wind shear because the convection is mostly to the east. If we look at the map of wind shear tendency, we can see that he has moved into that area of higher wind shear depicted by the red/orange:
But it is not very broad, so he will be heading into weaker shear in the next day or so. 

The vorticity (circulation) is still VERY strong in the lower half of the troposphere, and there is some in the upper levels of the troposphere, however because of the wind shear the upper part is not in alignment with the lower part. This is why he is not quite a hurricane. Once that wind shear vanishes, and the two parts align, he'll be back to hurricane strength. This may happen as soon as Friday evening, although the NHC expect it to happen by Saturday morning. Close enough! Yes, we are all in agreement on this one. :-)

Although he is heading towards Bermuda at the moment, the models are showing that he will curve away. This is quite possible as there is a high pressure area in the mid-Atlantic that he is moving around. I still can't locate the maps I used to rely on though. Grrr... continued. 

Atlantic Blobette
As I said yesterday...

"Don't panic until it's time to panic; then, by all means panic. Early panic attempts will be met by comments, insults, and pictures of tinfoil hats. Late panic attempts will fall on deaf ears. You have about 14 minutes." (thanks Keith L. for that). 

The good news about this blobette is that the hilly land of Hispaniola took a bit of steam out of her before she could emerge into the area of lower wind shear. Her convection is pretty shabby - you can barely tell she's a storm in the Atlantic-wide satellite imagery, can you? She's the rainy area that just 'left' Hispaniola and is kinda-sorta heading towards Cuba.

More than that though, her vorticity (circulation) has also weakened a bit. This was the map of the lower troposphere circulation yesterday...
You can see that yesterday the Atlantic Blobette (between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola) was on the redder end of yellow. This is the same map today, 24 hours later...

She still has a circulation signal in the lower troposphere, but it is weaker. She is moving W at around 15-20 mph. As she is going to continue to interact with Cuba for a little while, it is unlikely that she will get stronger. It may actually be the end of this system, but it's worth keeping an eye on her for at least another day or two. 

That's it for today methinks. Time to watch this again. Tee hee. 

Until tomorrow my friends!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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