Friday, August 05, 2016

Tropical Storm Earl: August 4, Update A

Only time for another quick update today! My long, lyrical prose and witty soliloquy (ooh, fancy word ;-)) will have to wait for a rainy day in LA... (don't hold your breathe). 

Tropical Storm Earl (Grey Tea) has almost crossed the Yucatan Peninsula and has maintained a very weak Tropical Storm status. Not too surprising that he has not yet become a Tropical Depression because, based on the vorticity (circulation) throughout the troposphere, he did seem stronger than his official status when he made landfall. 

He is currently at 18.1N, 91.7W, heading WNW at 10mph and is barely a Tropical Storm with winds of around 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1000mb. He is mostly dropping a few glasses of rain over the Yucatan. The convection has weakened quite considerably compared to yesterday, as we can see from his infra-red satellite images today:

He is going to emerge into the Bay of Campeche in a few hours, and should maintain Tropical Storm status - I agree with the NHC on that. I think he may still be a bit stronger than his official status because the circulation is still strong throughout the troposphere, although the lower levels are beginning to weaken. He may even get back to being a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm, depending on the amount of time he spends over water. 

I'll be back tomorrow, when the Games of the XXXI Olympiad will begin... bring on the caipirinhas! ;-)

Ciao for now,

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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