Thursday, August 04, 2016

Hurricane Earl: August 3, Update A

Time for a quick update on the life of Hurricane Earl (Grey Tea). The NHC upgraded him to a Hurricane earlier today and he is now a mid-size cat 1 storm with winds officially at 80 mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph), central pressure 979 mb. He is making landfall in Belize - you can see the eye as it starts to cross onto land in this radar imagery from Belize:

Although he is interacting with land, he is still a robust storm because the vorticity (circulation) is strong throughout the troposphere. I think he may actually be stronger than a mid-size cat 1 storm - possibly a borderline cat 1/cat 2 storm. There is also quite a bit of convection, including some very thundery weather and possible tornadoes in the center of the storm/grey area in the infrared satellite imagery:

He is officially moving W at 14 mph, and the current track takes him into the Bay of Campeche on Friday as a mere Tropical Depression, which is reasonable if he is a cat 1 and takes over a day to cross land: 

If he is actually a little stronger, then there is a chance he will still be a weak Tropical Storm as he gets to the Bay of Campeche. In either case, there will be a lot of rain. 

Stay safe Belize! That's it from moi for today. More tomorrow of course.

Time for a snoozle-doodle now.
Toodle pip,

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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