Saturday, August 27, 2016

Tropical Storm Gaston and the Atlantic Blobette, Altantic Blob, and Gulf of Mexico Blobette: August 27, Update A

Today's update will be very short due to technical difficulties: I closed my eyes for a 5 minute nap so I would be awake and witty for this and then promptly woke up 3 hours later, after midnight and can't stay awake now. I'm sure you have all experienced similar technical difficulties. :-)

So quickly, an update on all of the crayon marks here:

There is some convective activity across all these areas:

However, not all splodges (yes, technical term - describes a collective of areas of convection) are created equal, as you can see from the vorticity (or circulation) map. This is the map from the middle of the troposphere:
From the three maps above, we can:

1. See the the Gulf of Mexico Blobette is not really much of anything - no circulation, and not much convection. Not sure why that yellow crayon mark is on the NHC map in the first place. Won't be mentioning this one unless the circulation picks up. 

2. The original Atlantic Blobette, that was between Hispaniola and Cuba yesterday, still lurks near the Hispaniola region. She must really like the local drinks! She is struggling though because the convection has decreased. Although there is still some decent circulation in the middle level of the troposphere (and below that too - not shown), so I will still keep an eye on her. 

3. The new Atlantic Blob, near Bermuda, has some convection (are you guys getting any rain yet), but the vorticity/circulation is not very well defined - there are two connected areas in the middle troposphere, although it is looking better in the lower troposphere. This one may develop close/over Bermuda. I will keep an eye on this one too. 

4. Tropical Storm Gaston, everyone's favourite guy! ;-) He still has winds of 65mph, central pressure of 997mb, which makes him a strong Tropical Storm (TS raneg: 39-73mph). His center is currently at 27N, 50.8W and he is heading NW at 15mph. He is still experiencing a lot of wind shear and his center of circulation is at the southern edge of that area of convection that you see in the Atlantic imagery above. Here's the visible satellite image I grabbed earlier today: 
Although his vorticity (circulation) remains strong in the middle of the troposphere (and below), the upper level has been diminishing, which now indicates that he won't be a hurricane as he emerges from the wind shear. More on him tomorrow.  

Perfect timing... low battery warning that my computer will sleep soon. Just like me. :-) Definitely a sign! 

Night until the 'morrow!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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