Wednesday, August 03, 2016

Tropical Storm Earl: August 2, Update A

Apparently you missed me during the intermission! Aww. To make up for this appalling absence, I wanted to start today's update with this very special, out-of-this-world, weather report by my friends Sharon H., Jeff H., and Joel B.: 'Good Morning, Multiverse, Weather Report' (for the geek in all of us :-)).

Meanwhile, back in the Caribbean, we have Tropical Storm Earl Grey Tea. As expected, the NHC gave him a name (although somehow they accidentally omitted the 'Grey Tea' part!) once they got the data from the plane that flew into the storm this morning. He is at around 16.0N, 83.1W, heading W at 14mph. Winds are officially at 60mph, making him a mid-size Tropical Storm (TS range: 39 - 73mph) and his central pressure is 996mb. He is not a weak cuppa - his convection continues to remain strong. Here are the latest visible and infra-red satellite images: 

Earl Grey Tea's vorticity (circulation) is also very strong in the lower half of the troposphere and extends to the upper troposphere. The NHC say that he will continue to intensify to hurricane status by tomorrow but given his circulation at all levels of the troposphere, I think he is already a very weak cat 1 hurricane. 

Also as I expected, he slowed down, continued to move W/WSW, and is heading into Central America, clipping Honduras and a bit of Nicaragua on his way to Belize. I agree with this general track:

No surprises here really. He is behaving in a very predictable way - what else would you expect from a civilized cup of Earl Grey Tea? :-) Looking ahead, if his track shifts slightly to the south, he will dissipate over land. If it doesn't, then there is a good chance of slight re-intensification over the southern Bay of Campeche - we've seen other storms do this too. But given that he has to cross land, he shouldn't be too strong on the other side of the Yucatan. 

That's it for today I think. I must remember to check the Good Morning, Multiverse traffic report before I head into work tomorrow morning! :-) 

Stay safe out there! 


Blogs archived at
Twitter @JyovianStorm
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

No comments: