Thursday, May 10, 2007

Subtropical depression Andrea: May 10

Subtropical depression Andrea is not doing so well, and I'd agree with
all the official advisories.

She is embedded in an area of high pressure, which always makes the
forecasting a bit more difficult, and explains why she is just drifting
along. When a low pressure system encounters high pressure, it's like a
ball trying to roll up-hill - not easy to do. She is still surrounded
by dry air on almost all sides, she is now in a region of higher wind
shear from the west-northwest, the water temperatures are still too
cool, and she is interacting with land on the western side. So not much
to keep her growing.

Although she is a weak storm the forecast for the next few days is
complicated. Unless she dissipates, which is very possible given the bad
atmospheric environment and the proximity to land, her southward drift
takes her over warmer waters. To complicate this some more, there is a
low front that was over Nevada/Colorado yesterday, and has reached Texas
today and is moving in this direction. So, if Andrea stays intact the
models are predicting that this front would move the storm eastward in a
few days, and I can see that as a possibility as well. It all depends on
how well she hangs together in the next couple of days.

That's all for now on this storm unless something 'interesting' happens.
Hopefully you won't hear from me again for a couple of months - wouldn't
that be nice? :)
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.


No comments: