Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Subtropical Storm

Hello everyone... I'm back from hibernation. I know I know, 'Hurricane
Season' doesn't officially start for another few weeks, but mother
nature never listens to us. There is a reason for this email - see
below. For those of you who have joined this list over the past few
months, welcome. If at any point you want to be removed, just send me an
email. For those who have been with me for the last 3 years, welcome
back :) As usual, if you have any questions, please drop me a line.

As the first email of the upcoming 'exciting'?!? hurricane season 2007,
I'm going to put my disclaimer up front:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.
And we're off:

Some of you have seen what appears to be a tropical storm off the
Florida/Georgia/Carolina coast (thanks to those who sent me an email
asking about it). There is, indeed, a low pressure system that has the
characteristics of a subtropical storm off the Carolina coast. The low
pressure is associated with a dying cold front (also connected to the
tornadoes in Kansas late last week). It is not unheard of that a
subtropical storm can develop into a tropical storm (TS), for example,
TS Ana in April 2003. Also, since 2002, subtropical storms have been
given names from the hurricane name list.

The atmospheric conditions look good for storm development - good
circulation and low wind shear at the moment. Winds in the storm are
Gale Force, which is 34-40 knots, or 39-46 miles per hour (mph).
Tropical Storm winds are 34-63 knots, so it's on the lower end of the
scale. It is pulling in dry air from the west and south, and the ocean
conditions are not too favorable at the moment. As your local weather
stations are probably reporting, it does mean some bad weather for the
Carolina's, Georgia and possibly Florida in a day or so. The movement of
the system is to the west. At the moment, this hasn't been officially
classified as the first Tropical Storm of the season, but I will send
out an email if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) decide to change
that status. As I was writing this, the NHC has issued a special
tropical disturbance statement, so everyone is watching this system. I'm
sure we will all hear a lot more about this in the news.

More later,

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