November 30: Final Day of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Aaah. <sip of wine>. Aaah. The end of November and the official end of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season. Aaah. <sip of wine> Aaah. ;-)

Another boring year with nothing much to report. Ha ha ha. Yeah. Sure. Somehow I suspect 2010 will be considered an interesting year for major natural and environmental disasters (can you name 5?), and the hurricane season certainly played its part. To sum up the 2010 season, we had 19 named storms, of which 12 were Hurricanes, 5 were Major (cat 3 or higher; Danielle, Earl, Igor, Julia, and Karl) and 7 Tropical Storms. A map of all storm tracks is attached (courtesy of NOAA). As you might have gathered from my 'subtle hints' here and there, I didn't agree with all of these but even if you removed the named storms I thought were a bit too big for their boots, it was still an above-average year (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major). I've read that 2010 tied with 1887 and 1995 for the third highest number of named storms and this is the first year that we know of in which there were 12 Hurricanes, but none made US landfall.

In my opinion (yes, it is still as reticent and humble as it was a year ago ;-)), I think this year the NHC/models didn't do as well in intensity forecasting as they could have. They were slow on predicting an increase in intensity for some storms. This was especially obvious in the regions where the deep ocean waters were warm and would have a larger impact. So the models (or the forecasters) are still not considering the ocean fully. Maybe by 2050 they'll have figured it out, but until then it's great for me because I come across as a relative genius (hey, every bit helps! ;-)). However, I have to say that the long-range (10-15 day) forecasts were amazing! I have been so impressed with that part of hurricane forecast modelling. I know it's still in the kinda-psuedo-experimental stages, but I don't think there were any storms that weren't predicted to form at those lead times by one model or another. I raise my glass to those models and the scientific research that went into them.

At the beginning of June most seasonal forecasters were predicting a busy year. What about 2011? Well, as they have now started to issue the seasonal forecasts in May, there isn't too much out there at the moment. After some searching, I found a blog posted by TropicalAnalystwx13 on Wunderground who says: "20-22 Tropical Depressions, 16-18 Tropical Storms, 6-11 Hurricanes, and 3-4 Major hurricanes" for 2011. And I think from Accuweather we have: " Total storms: 13-15; hurricanes: 8-10; major hurricanes: 4-5 Impact on U.S. coast: 6 storms dealing at least tropical storm conditions, three or four of these hurricanes, one, perhaps two major hurricanes." Everyone else is being prudent, and rightly so. :-)

I recieved a lot of good questions this year, which alas I didn't have time to answer because there were so many storms and then I was busy doing silly little things like moving country. Not to worry. I haven't lost them. I will get to them and bore you silly with the answers one day. ;-) Maybe if I wake up from hibernation early (or maybe before I go into hibernation).

And now we come to my final words of incredible wit and wisdom for the season: Thanks for reading! Just think of all the free time you'll have between now and June 1. You can do something productive like er... mowing the grass and eating cheese (which is better than mowing the cheese and eating grass). ;-) Of course, this could not have been made possible without my fabulous technical support team - the computing guys (esp. D.M.) at CMS/USF in Florida for the listserve, and C.H. in Texas for maintaining the blog site! You guys are, as always, awesome. This year I added pictures to the blog (yay! finally), and thanks to my friends at the Met Office in the UK (esp. S.L.), I joined Twitter. At this rate next year I'll have my own tv show! Thank you also to everyone for sending me your comments, emails, banter, bon mots, and questions and to those who told so many many of their friends, colleagues, and families about this during this year! Readership is up to about 2500 I reckon. Eeek. I better write something useful and serious next year. Hmm. I'll practice during the off-season. I'd also like to thank my family, friends and colleagues on all sides of the Atlantic for their now failed attempts at keeping me sane. (Bwaa haa haa. ;-))

Until the 1st June, 2011 (unless I get around to answering those questions or something interesting happens), have a safe and happy holiday and a wonderful New Year. Laugh and be merry! Now... back to my glass of wine, as I sit on my screened in patio overlooking a lake in t-shirt and shorts. Winter? Where? ;-)

TOODLE PIP!
J.

Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Tomas: November 7, Update A

Earlier today the NHC stopped their advisories on Tomas. He has lost tropical characteristics and is more like a low pressure front than a tropical storm now. This is what we were seeing a couple of days ago and in that image I attached to my previous entry (I had a hectic day away from a computer yesterday :-)). His last known official winds were about 60mph, so he was a mid-sized tropical storm. Central pressure was 997mb. He is centered somewhere around 26.1N, 68.1W.
 
He is about 500 miles SSW of Bermuda and heading NNE at 3mph. Er, Bermuda I think you're good for the rest of this year. (Talk about a long range forecast! ;-)). Nah... he'll pass well to your east and zip by you a bit sooner than that. It looks like wind shear is pretty strong so he should steadily decline and may just about be able to send you a wave (hee hee...puns intended) as he goes by.  
 
This is my last entry on Tomas.
 
No more until the next one... or dare I say it, until the end of the season!! Three more weeks to go! Woo hoo.
 
Later gators! (Shhh, I hear it's best not to mention the noles this week.) (Can one say 'good try'?)
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Tomas: November 5, Update A

In the early hours of this morning Tomas officially became a hurricane. He passed between Haiti and Cuba as a mid-sized cat 1 storm with winds of 85mph (range: 74-95 mph). The interaction with land on either side knocked some steam out of him (puns always intended! ;-)) and he's barely a cat 1 storm now, heading towards the southern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos region, with winds of 75mph and a central pressure of 994mb. He is moving NE at 13mph, and is centered at 20.8N, 72.8W.
 
He looks pretty ragged at the moment, but where there is convection it is still very strong so I agree with the hurricane classification. Haiti and the Turks and Caicos are really experiencing a lot of strong thunderstorms at the moment. It's too soon to say what the impact on Haiti has been because they are still in the thick of things. So far I see a somewhat inaccurate news report from an unamed news source (with three letters in the title and from my homeland ... tut tut, I expected better - the earthquake was less than a year ago!) saying four people have died. Hopefully that's the worst of it, despite people riding out the storm in their tents.
 
The vorticity in the upper troposphere has decreased a bit. Although he looks like a tropical storm in the middle levels of the troposphere, the vorticity in the lowest levels is now connected to a front that extends north all the way from the storm to Canada. I've attached a picture (from the University of Wisconsin) to show you this - the red areas indicate higher vorticity. You can see the front quite clearly. Normally a tropical storm will look like an isolated area of high vorticity.

The forecast calls for Tomas to continue moving northeastward, and for him to get weaker and eventually dissipate by Tuesday. I agree with this. I think the NHC have been pretty good on the track with this storm - at least from the point just before he made that turn towards the north.
 
More tomorrow!
Adieu for now,
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Tomas: November 4, Update A

Poor Haiti. It looks like they are getting lots of rain. Lots and lots. Under normal conditions Haiti doesn't usually do well with lots of rain because of the mountainous terrain and deforestation which results in mudslides and floods. Not what they need under these abnormal conditions!
 
Wind shear is still strong so it's not easy to see his center of circulation - he remains a little disorganized at the moment. Officially he is located at 16.9N, 75.9W and is moving NNE at 8mph. I'll go with that. Winds are now 60mph, so he's a mid-sized Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph) with a central pressure of 993mb. Hmm... he might get close being a cat 1 storm because the vorticity is strong over the entire tropopsphere and wind shear looks like it might diminsh a tad in the next couple of days. Although the focus is on Haiti because of the disasters it has faced this year, Tomas will pass very close to Jamaica and possibly clip Cuba.  
In this case he might interact with land, and he is already beginning to interact with mountainous terrain of Hispaniola so there's a chance that he'll remain a strong Tropical Storm and not get to hurricane strength. It doesn't actually matter too much what the winds are doing (although they will blow away some tents, I'm sure). The biggest problem for Haiti from this will be the rain.  We'll find out tomorrow and the following day!
 
That's it for now. Short. Just like me. ;-)
Ciao,
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Tomas: November 3, Update A

Computer glitches were the theme of the day yesterday I think. It seems as though the update didn't get out to the listserve, although it got onto the website so if you really want to read it you can check it out on jyotikastorms.blogspot.com. Nothing much happened yesterday anyway though, so if I were you, I'd cut your losses and save some time by skipping an entry! ;-)
 
Tomas is still a Tropical Storm, and a weak one at that with winds of 45 mph (range: 39-73mph) and central pressure of 1003mb. He made that turn and is now heading NNW at 6mph. He's currently at about 15.4N, 75.2W. There is a fair bit of vorticity throughout the troposphere - from that alone he should be a stronger Tropical Storm or weak cat 1. There is also quite a lot of convection which is spread over a large area of the Caribbean. I think he's stronger than a weak TS and his intensity is being underestimated.
 
The forecast track takes him towards Haiti by Friday, unfortunately. But I don't know if he will be a hurricane as they predict. Wind shear is still strong in the northern Caribbean, which will inhibit him from developing much more. However, the vorticity is strong too, which indicates strengthening to me. Until the vorticity dies down, I expect strengthening.
 
That's all for today. Let's see if this one gets sent out. Ho hum. Computers... can't live with them, can't live without them. (Ancient saying). ;-)
 
Night night!
J. 
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Tomas: November 2, Update A

Ho ho... back in the country less than a week and I've seen the (current) Governor of Florida twice already. Ok, so he was standing on the street corner, encouraging people to vote today... vote for him, presumably.
 
Meanwhile, on the nature channel Tropical Storm Tomas is still hanging on out there in the Caribbean. He has slowed down a bit since yesterday, but still continues on a westward track at 8mph. Wind speeds are even lower than yesterday's 45mph... they are 40mph. A big drop, I know. ;-) Central pressure is 1006mb. He's still officially a Tropical Storm, but barely. I must admit that he looks more like a TS today than he did yesterday. There is more convection and the vorticity (circulation) has definitely improved since yesterday. It is quite strong in the lowest half of the troposphere, with a small signal in the upper levels which means that he has room to become a stronger Tropical Storm, and possibly a weak cat 1. He's still in the southern part of the Caribbean where wind shear is a little weaker (compared to the northern part). Unfortunately the server is down so I can't access the pressure fields to see if there is any indication of the track.
 
He is centered at about 13.7N, 75.1W. I am having a dodgy computer day apparently... I can't see the satellite movies either, which makes it tricky to see the center of circulation. I'll have to go with the official word for now.
 
Although I don't have my usual (limited) information, there are a few clues that allow us to speculate about tomorrow. He has slowed down. If he continues to move westward, wind shear is low in that direction so we can expect him to intensify. If he moves northwestward and then northward, which is the forecast for tomorrow, then there is a chance that wind shear will inhibit him from intensifying too much. But the forecast calls for him to be a hurricane as he moves north, so I think the computer models are prediciting the wind shear to die away, or not to have an impact. His future intensity depends on wind shear, how fast he moves forward, and how long it takes for him to make that turn northwards. It's all up to atmospheric conditions because the ocean temperatures are pretty consistent where he is, to the west, and to the (immediate) north.  
 
Tomorrow I'll be looking for that northward turn. At the moment, I think a turn to sleepyland for me is in order. :-)
Toodle pip!
J.
 
p.s. I got some funny responses to the Dalek. There's nothing wrong with pronouncing it 'Darlik'... makes perfect sense to me. We add all sorts of letters all over the place in England (if you think we're bad you should visit Wales!).  And HM... R2-D2? Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. I'll have to find you a 2011 calendar of "Sci-Fi Pumpkin Pin-Ups of the 19th Century". Educational AND practical. You'll love it. ;-)
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Tomas: November 1, Update A

Little Tomas is looking quite messy at the moment. He's still moving westward at 12mph, and is currently officially centered at around 13.4N, 69.7W. I'll go with that because I can't tell. I'm not sure he's a Tropical Storm at the moment - officially the wind speeds are 45mph (range: 39-73mph) which means he is a weak TS, but the central pressure of 1005mb is quite high for a Tropical Storm. Convection is strong, but it is to the east of the center because of wind shear. There is some vorticity in the lowest half of the troposphere, but that is south of the official center. He is still experiencing strong wind shear and it looks like if he will continue to experience strong shear if he moves anywhere in the northern half of the Caribbean. Of course now I'm back in a place where hurricane happen I hear what is being said in the news about them. <Sigh> (she says, shaking her head resignedly). Just in case you were wondering... the wind shear will not 'push' the storm in any particular direction. It will impact the intensity of the storm because it will not allow it to develop fully, but it won't do too much to the track a storm takes. <Sigh> 
 
About the track... it looks like high pressure is building up all around him, which means he will be forced to move southwards, or will slow down. If it continues to build up across the Caribbean (from the east to the west) he might not even make it north to Haiti. If he slows down then things become tricky(ier) to predict - he could become more intense because of the warm waters underneath, or he could fall apart if wind shear continues. Tomorrow the thing to look for is what is happening to his forward speed and then we'll reassess things.
 
To sum up... because he is so weak and because high pressure is building up around him, I can't really say what he's going to do until we know whether he slows down or moves southward.
 
What an interesting little beastie this one might be.
More fun tomorrow!
J.
 
p.s. The photo I posted yesterday was a pumpkin Dalek (Gary M. was the first to get the right answer). A Dalek (pronounced Darlik) is one of the aliens from a fabulous British sci-fi show, Dr. Who. This is the longest running sci-fi tv show in the world. The first episode aired in November 1963 and it is still running (although it took a bit of a break in between).   
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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