Thursday, November 04, 2010

Tropical Storm Tomas: November 4, Update A

Poor Haiti. It looks like they are getting lots of rain. Lots and lots. Under normal conditions Haiti doesn't usually do well with lots of rain because of the mountainous terrain and deforestation which results in mudslides and floods. Not what they need under these abnormal conditions!
Wind shear is still strong so it's not easy to see his center of circulation - he remains a little disorganized at the moment. Officially he is located at 16.9N, 75.9W and is moving NNE at 8mph. I'll go with that. Winds are now 60mph, so he's a mid-sized Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph) with a central pressure of 993mb. Hmm... he might get close being a cat 1 storm because the vorticity is strong over the entire tropopsphere and wind shear looks like it might diminsh a tad in the next couple of days. Although the focus is on Haiti because of the disasters it has faced this year, Tomas will pass very close to Jamaica and possibly clip Cuba.  
In this case he might interact with land, and he is already beginning to interact with mountainous terrain of Hispaniola so there's a chance that he'll remain a strong Tropical Storm and not get to hurricane strength. It doesn't actually matter too much what the winds are doing (although they will blow away some tents, I'm sure). The biggest problem for Haiti from this will be the rain.  We'll find out tomorrow and the following day!
That's it for now. Short. Just like me. ;-)
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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