Tropical Storm Arlene behaved as expected and made landfall in early hours of this morning (4AM CDT) near Cabo Rojo, Mexico (21.5N, 97.3W). Winds were 65mph, central pressure 996mb. Here's a visible satellite image of her at landfall:
She's moving westward at 9mph, onto land and wind speeds will begin to decrease. She produced a lot of rain, and although windy, she did not quite reach hurricane strength. It'll take a day at least for the rain to diminish from this system and she still has some nice circulation in the lower troposphere.
This is my last entry on TS Arlene.
I'm keeping an eye on a small Atlantic blob that's just outside the Caribbean at around 12N, 55W. I'll be back if something happens with that one.
Have fun! J.
Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/ Twitter @JyovianStorm
------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. -------------------------------------------
Although officially TS Arlene is a mid-sized tropical storm at the moment with winds of 50mph (TS range: 39-73mph), she looks a lot stronger to me and I would have her pegged as a strong TS, maybe with winds of around 60-65mph, possibly higher.
The circulation has been getting stronger throughout the day, and is very good in the entire lowest half of the troposphere*, with some circulation at higher altitudes as well. In addition to the circulation, the convection has also improved drastically, and parts of Mexico are getting huge dollops of rain with thunder and lightning and all that jazz. Here is a satellite photo of Arlene from about 5.15pm EST. This is an infrared (IR) image. I don’t have time to explain IR imagery at the moment, but I promise I’ll explain it soon! For now, red is strong convection, with loud thunder, tornadoes etc…. and blue is cloudy but no rain. Everything else in between probably needs at least one umbrella.
Although she’s strong, you can see she is interacting with land, so I don’t think she will strengthen too much more. At the most, she might reach a very weak hurricane, but I’m thinking a strong TS.
*Scientific Jargon Alert: What do you mean you’ve already forgotten what the ‘troposphere’ is? I covered this about 3 weeks ago! Aren’t you memorizing everything I write?!? Sigh. ;-) Ok, it’s in this one if you can’t recall and haven’t worked out how to operate Google yet… http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2011/06/caribbean-blobette-june-5-update.html. End of Scientific Jargon Alert.
Ok... must run. Cup of tea and glass of wine await (not at the same time!)
Ciao, J.
Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/ Twitter @JyovianStorm
------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. -------------------------------------------
Here we go! The first named storm of the season – and a dinky little thing she is too. J
I’ve been a tad busy lately but that hasn’t stopped me from keeping half an eye on this Gulf of Mexico blobette as she has developed over the past 24 hours, and now we have Tropical Storm Arlene.
She’s in the southwest Gulf, in the Bay of Campeche, and is heading West-Northwest, with landfall expected in Mexico late on Weds/early Thursday. They sent in a plane this afternoon to investigate and found some low-level circulation. She is centered at 21.2N, 93.7W and is moving WNW at 7mph. Although she has been named, she’s barely a Tropical Storm, with estimated winds of about 40mph (Tropical Storm range: 39-73mph). Minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. There is some decent circulation now in the lowest half of the troposphere – so about 5-6km above the earth’s surface. But convection has been a bit slow, and although there are some isolated heavy thunderstorms, it’s not quite what we would see with a well-developed Tropical Storm.
It’s a bit late in the day, so I’ll leave Arlene to think about things over night and I’ll pop back in tomorrow with an update.
------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. -------------------------------------------
This blobette is more than a little drunk on rum I think, so it’s not quite able to get its act together. There continues to be some low level circulation, mostly off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras. There is also some heavy convection, mostly over Nicaragua/Honduras at the moment. However the two are not really aligned, and the upper level circulation is quite far removed from this any of activity. The wind shear is strong enough to inhibit this from developing much so unless it drinks a few strong cups of coffee, I’m not going to bother writing any more on this blobette.
Instead, I’ll take a bit of your time to answer a question from *cough* September 2010 *cough* (I’m a bit slow sometimes… ;-)). This was sent to me by Chris H. (question 1 of 4... I'll try and get around to answering the other three sometimes in the next 5 years).
Question: Is the scientific community any better at predicting hurricane paths than it was in 1995? Is it possible to say "we can predict the path of a hurricane with x% more certainty than we could back then?"
Answer: Despite my ‘slight’ sarcasm about model forecast tracks drawn by 2 year-olds etc, the answer is yes! The scientific community has definitely improved its ability to predict hurricane paths over the last ~15 years. Like any good geeky scientist-type (and proud of it), I shall resort to showing you a graph that summarizes the improvement:
This shows the error in track forecasts from 1970 to about 2007. Each colour (please note correct British use of extra ‘u’) line represents the forecast at a different time, so the red is the 24 hour forecast, the yellow is the forecast at 72 hours (normally known as the 3 day forecast of course), and the blue is the 5 day (120 hour) forecast. There are a few things of interest in this:
1. The 24 hour track error in the early 1970s was about 100-150 nautical miles (1 nmi = 1.15 miles), but in the early 2000s, it had come down to around 50-75 nmi.
2. The 4 and 5 day track forecasts only really began in the early 2000s, and the track error at those lead times was comparable to the 2 and 3 day forecasts in the 1970s.
3. The variation in the error from one year to the next was much bigger before the 1990s, but is smaller now.
Ha, Chris, I bet you weren’t expecting an answer (apparently no one expects the Spanish Inquisition either ;-)).
That’s it for today. I’ll answer another one of your fabulous questions soon(ish).
------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. -------------------------------------------
Over the past few days a little blobette* has been hanging out in the Caribbean, no doubt enjoying the good music, food, rum (yummy pina coladas and banana daiquiris!) and snorkeling (what else does one do if one is visiting the Caribbean for a few days?).
*Blobettes & Blobs: my highly scientific technical term for a ‘blob’ of clouds and rainfall and thundery sort of weather that isn’t strong enough to be anything else ;-), introduced in circa 2005.
However today the circulation improved near the surface and is also gradually improving at higher levels of the troposphere**, but because of wind shear it is still not very well developed. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) locates the center of circulation at about 175 miles west-southwest (WSW) of Jamaica. I’d say that the lower level center is around there, and the higher level circulation is due south of the island (a good indication of the wind shear that is inhibiting development).
It has already generated lots of rain over Jamaica and the northern Caribbean islands but the convection is diminishing this evening which, along with the wind shear, is an indication that this will still take some time to get stronger. It is moving slowly westward. Here’s what the computer models show as potential future tracks (image from www.crownweather.com - a really good website for storm graphics)…
I’m pretty sure I have an identical picture from a 2-year old stashed away somewhere.
Until this blobette gets stronger it is difficult to determine what the track (if any) will be, so I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on it.
**Troposphere… oooh, first real scientific jargon of the season and it’s only June 5! Aren’t you lucky? I’ll be using ‘troposphere’ quite frequently during the season. Feel free to use it whenever you like as well. I find that dropping it randomly into casual conversation confuses the other person, which is particularly useful when you are negotiating global peace treaties.
The Troposphere: this is the name of the lowest level of our atmosphere. It extends up to about 8km height in the polar regions, and 15-16 km in parts of the tropics. In the troposphere, the higher up you go, the colder the temperature gets (e.g. tops of mountains). The layer above the troposphere is called the 'Stratosphere'... you might have heard of that because, in the polar regions, that's where the Ozone Hole likes to hang out (and have lovely warm cups of tea ;-)). In the stratosphere, the higher up you go, the warmer the temperature gets! Isn't that interesting? The demarcation between the troposphere and stratosphere is called the ‘tropopause’.
More tomorrow, I’m sure.
Toodle Pip for now! J.
Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/ Twitter @JyovianStorm
------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. -------------------------------------------
That blobette that was east of Florida did, indeed, move westward across the Florida peninsula yesterday and is now producing some rainy weather over the Gulf. There is very little circulation, so it doesn't look like it will develop into anything. As it crossed the state it produced the expected squally tropical weather. Here is a photo of the lovely lovely clouds in the first squall line coming through St. Petersburg (at 1.22pm), taken by moi (I'm so multi-talented, aren't I? ;-)) with my iPhone from my office window. Aww... look at that lovely little boat, happily anchored and bobbing in the water, waiting for the weather to improve...
...17 minutes later... video footage of the same scene (also by me & my iPhone) as the squall was overhead.
I think it goes something like this:
Big Ship: $!*&!! where did that little boat come from? Little Boat: $!*&!! where did that big ship come from? Big Ship: move little boaty, move! Little Boat: eeek, stuck! eeek! Big Ship: move move little boaty! Little Ship: cut anchor, hit sea wall, stay put, hit big ship... rock and a hard place. stuck! Big Ship: time for three-point turn. i practiced this in driving school. run away, run away...
From where I was, I could hear the people on the ship shouting ‘get out of the way’. Fortunately the captain & crew of the bigger vessel did some quick thinking and no one was injured!
So that's what the first tropical blobette of the season got up to in my neck of the woods.
For those who asked about how to follow my escapades as a Twit, click on http://twitter.com/#!/JyovianStorm (I think ;-)).
All else looks groovy out there. :-)
Ciao, J.
p.s. my first blog video!!! It only took me about 8 hours to get this in here. Thanks Ben A. for the help! :-) The world is now my oyster. Again.
------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. -------------------------------------------
Dear Ladies, Gentlemen, Children, Cats, Dogs, and the Pony in SE Florida who might be reading this: Welcome to the official start of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season!
The latest forecasts call for an active season (relative to some average – see below):
U. Colorado/Gray/Klotzbach (issued April 6, 2011): 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes.
NOAA’s latest (issued on May 19, 2011): 12-18 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes.
MetOffice (issued May 26, 2011): 13 named storms, with 70% chance of the range being 10-17.
Accuweather (issued May 30, 2011): 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes.
In an average season we would expect 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and about 2 major hurricanes. I do not think this average includes the activity of the last decade, so when I have a few moments I might just check these numbers. I’ll let you know what I find. One reason we need to include the last few years in the ‘average’ value is because they are now including storms that are very short-lived that in the distant past (within the past 5 years) were not named. You may remember me grumbling about this over the last couple of years.
The first three names this year are: Arlene, Bret and Cindy.
To start the season off, there is a small blobette off the northeast coast of Florida. Obviously it didn’t get the memo that we are all just waking up and there’s no need to rush because we haven’t had our morning tea yet. Ho hum. There is some low level circulation and some thundery weather. This blobette is moving WSW at around 20mph, but I don’t think it will develop into anything more than some squally weather over Florida/Georgia because it’s really close to land.
If you have been reading this for more than a year, you can skip to the postscript if you like (although I tweaked it a bit – I was in a boring meeting with nothing else to do ;-)). If this is your first visit to this fabulous, amazing, wonderful blog, here are a few background notes so you know what you are getting into:
1.These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and tropical storms (and whatever else pops into my head that may fit those three words). It is just what I think.
2.I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned.
3.This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometime four. If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to write, let me know and I'll send out updates as frequently as you like.
4.I hope you like Monty Python and Eddie Izzard. And other funny stuff.
5.If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please do not hesitate to ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you. Over the years, I've talked about a lot of things already, but I can cut and paste from previous entries as well as the next person so if I say something or use some "scientific jargon" (ooh ahh, how thrilling), please please ask me about it.
6.I have a British sense of humoUr... I often write tongue-in-cheek, which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm, irony, and puns are all acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended - like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece of chocolate or a drink instead.
7.I'm sure every cloud in the Atlantic is exciting to some but, unless I'm bored, I'll usually write about those that I think have a chance of developing.
9.If you are reading this via email, are sick of me cluttering up your in-boxes and would prefer to get it via the web go here... http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com (and send me an email telling me to remove you).
10.I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because they have the most up-to-date information!!
11.I have a British sense of humoUr... er... did I mention that one already?
(It's not too late to unsubscribe ;-))
That’s all I have for the opening speech. More later!
J.
p.s. Did I tell you I’m a Twit now too? ;-) (@JyovianStorm) Over the past few months I’ve been tweeting about storms in other basins and other things I think are interesting.
------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. -------------------------------------------
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