Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: September 30, Update A

Oh great googliemooglies and blisterin’ barnacles!! Bermudians, I hope you are ready! Ophelia exceeded everyone’s expectations today.

Hurricane Ophelia
In my opinion I think the official forecast has been underestimating her for days, but none of us were expecting her to get quite this strong. Officially she is now a mid-sized cat 3 and a very good looking storm with 120mph winds (cat 3 range: 111-130mph). The eye has been clear and steady for hours, so she might actually be closer to a cat 4 I think. Here are visible and IR satellite images of the Atlantic:





Despite this being a night-time view, doesn’t Ophelia look good? We can see Bermuda is just on the northwestern edge of the outer cloud bands.

Although she is strong, there are some things that are working in Bermuda’s favour:

1.Currently her convection is not as strong as it could be – you can see stronger convective activity just north of Cuba, with that area of red in the IR image. Remember, red means that the cloud tops are cold, which means they are deep, and usually have strong thunderstorms with possible tornados thrown in here and there.

2.There is still a bit of wind shear acting on her, and you can see that because she’s not completely circular, but has a streaming mass of clouds to the northeast.

3.She will pass to the east of the island. Although the NHC did not officially shift her to a Northward track until today, she’s been heading North since yesterday from what I’ve seen, which is why her track (and the forecast track) has been shifting to the east of the forecast since yesterday. The unknown part is how much of her will clip Bermuda. Hopefully it’ll be just a bit breezy tomorrow, with a couple of pockets of rain. If you look at the IR satellite, you can see a front that is moving off the US… also heading in Bermuda’s direction. They might get clouds from that if they don’t have much from Ophelia… but at least it won’t be as windy. Meteorologically speaking, it’s all very interesting stuff!

I’ve heard from Steve on Bermuda. They have been preparing – the usual drill. Wrap things in tarps, have a drink, move things away from windows, get the candles, have a drink, make sure there is enough water, beer, wine, ice cream, have a drink, batteries for the radio, matches etc. (umm… that’s my preparation list anyway ;-)). He’d like to know if anyone has got any ideas on where to park the car?

She is currently at 25.9N, 63W and is doing a good job at following that center of cone track (now) – only moving slightly east of that center line. She is moving rapidly northward at 16mph, and has a minimum pressure of 956mb. Interestingly, the lower level convergence and upper level divergence are not as strong as they could be (or were yesterday and earlier today), which might be an indication that she might weaken as she gets closer to Bermuda (I’m not sure of this though – it could be a blip). Water temperatures for both storms are around 27-29 deg C; certainly warm enough to sustain them. Ophelia should pass Bermuda late tomorrow afternoon.

Tropical Storm Philippe
In comparison, Philippe looks like a baby. However, you can see (in the IR satellite image) that his convection is stronger than Ophelia’s, even if his structure or circulation is not as well developed. He is under considerably more wind shear than his bigger sister, and it looks like that will persist for a while. Officially he is at around 23.5N, 46.2W, moving NW at 13mph. Winds are 50mph, with a central pressure of 1004mb. I am not sure he’s moving quite that fast, but the location and direction are about right. This morning the NHC wrote in their 11am advisry: “FINALLY...WE CAN CLEARLY SEE THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES FROM OVERNIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED CENTER DISSIPATED...AND A NEW CENTER FORMED FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.” This confused me, because I saw a clear center yesterday. Maybe they don’t look at their own satellite images? And the ‘previously estimated center dissipated and a new center formed’? Really? Tut tut tut. Obviously they don’t read my wonderfully enlightening blog (ahem, probably just as well really ;-))! Their ‘estimated’ center looked off to me a couple of days ago… I think they were finally beginning to move in the right direction on this one yesterday evening.

I see they finally moved his forecast track so it’s making more of a beeline for Bermuda. And why not? They are already prepared for stormy weather so what’s one more, hey? ;-) Actually, part of this is because the forecast track is following Ophelia, which is the biggest low in the Atlantic at the moment. The models will have him track towards that beacon of lowness (not a technical term! ;-)). The actual track is a little tricky for me to see, because he is surrounded by high pressure again and because the models are following Ophelia (and he will try and follow her too by the way). Maybe tomorrow or the following day it will become clearer. The NHC think he will have deteriorated into a Tropical Depression by Monday anyway.

For those whose interest was piqued by the science research cruise out there… an update from Dale on the JOIDES Resolution (which was drilling at around 22.7N, 46W): “To move out of Philippe's path we moved NE yesterday from early morning until late in the evening on a hdg of ~44 degrees, this morning we are on a heading of 145 degrees to get behind Philippe and move back onto the drill site. Colleagues on the Canary Islands report a dust storm impacting their location this morning and predict it will be over us sometime tomorrow evening around 1800 hours. So far I collected a number of microorganisms from the atmosphere. Also looking at the influence of aerosol deposition on microbial communities in surface waters...seas have been relatively smooth so far..........” Thanks Dale!

Please stay safe on Bermuda. Send me updates if you are able. I’ll check in and see what’s what tomorrow morning too.

There will be more tomorrow. Bye for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: September 29, Update A

Ophelia says: “September 29 is National Coffee Day. I had 12 cups today. Can you tell?” ;-)

And here are some interesting US coffee factoids for all you coffee beans out there: http://www.livescience.com/16297-coffee-facts-national-coffee-day-infographic.html

What I want to know is when is it National Tea Day? Gosh darn it.

Hurricane Ophelia
She put on a good show today and pulled herself together to become our next hurricane this afternoon. She is currently at about 21.9N, 62.3W, and looking like she’s heading northward to me, which means she is slightly east of the forecast track at the moment. Officially she’s moving NNW at 9mph. If she carries on northward, there is a chance that she’ll miss Bermuda and skirt to the east of the island, however at the moment they are in the cone of whiteness and should be getting ready.

Winds are now at 85mph, so she’s a mid-size category 1 (range: 74-95mph) with a central pressure of 984mb. She did develop an eye for a short while a couple of hours ago, which indicates that the winds are, indeed, probably closer to the 90mph range. Her circulation is very strong in the lower troposphere, and there is a pretty nice signal in the upper troposphere as well. I have no doubts that she’s a hurricane, and agree with the NHC in their analysis today (about Ophelia anyway). Both the lower level convergence and upper level divergence (remember those?) are also really good. Her convection is not as strong as I’ve seen in other category 1 storms, however it is fluctuating, so I’m not placing too much emphasis on that for now. She is definitely a solid cat 1 storm. There is a bit of wind shear, but she’s strong enough that it won’t have too much of an impact. However, as she moves north the water temperatures cool from the current 27-28 deg C, so I don’t know if she will really get much bigger than the forecast cat 1.

I heard from Steve on Bermuda. He is very concerned that she’ll get there on Saturday night. The biggest problem he is facing is that the rain will water down his beer (having never been to Bermuda, I assume this is because Bermudian pubs don’t have roofs?). Watered down beer… isn’t that called American beer? (I’m not a beer drinker, I just repeat what I’m told…).

Tropical Storm Philippe
As much as I agree with the NHC on their analysis of Ophelia throughout the day today, I have to say I disagree with what they said about poor Philippe. Just because he’s farther away doesn’t mean he’s any less important. Poor fella.

I’m not convinced his center has been in the correct location for the bulk of today. At the 5am advisory he was still too far south. Officially he was at 17.8N, 41.7W moving WNW at 13mph. At the 11am advisory, he was at 18.6N, 42.6W, moving NW at 13mph. Here are two visible satellite snapshots, one at 13:15UTC, which is about 8.15am EST, and the other at 18:15UTC which is about 1.15pm EST:



In the earlier image, I don’t see his center near 18N, 41.7W… it looks closer to 19N if anything. In the second image it looks like it is closer to 20N. At 5pm they had him at 20.2N, 43.6W, which I think was far more reasonable, although he was still heading NW at 13 mph. I don’t think he’s heading NW, but is moving WNW at the moment. Now he looks like he is around 21.2N, 44.0W and heading westwardish (officially he is still heading NW at 13mph).

Winds are 45mph, central pressure is 1004mb. I agree with this overall intensity estimate… his convection is pretty weak, and his circulation is strong only in the lower half of the troposphere. However, I think his winds are a bit stronger than 45mph. His upper divergence and lower convergence is very good. I think there is room for him to improve because wind shear looks like it might decrease for a short while and, if he continues westward(ish), he is heading towards an area of warmer water (28-29 deg C, instead of his current 27-28 deg C).

I received this report from Dale, a scientist, who is sampling dust (remember the Saharan Air Layer that was so instrumental earlier in this season) on a Research Vessel in the Atlantic: “Philippe was heading right for us... we were at ~46W, 22N...thought I was going to get the opportunity to sample the aerobiology of a storm eye...that would have been great.....but no, the JOIDES Resolution is currently underway on a NE course to get out if Philippes way...have been underway since early this morning moving at about 21 k/hr...plan is to stop at some point late tonight and the turn around and head back to the drill sites....currently the seas are smooth with a light swell....nice enough to water ski”.

Yup, if they had stayed at around 22N, 46W, it would have been a rather interesting expedition. In case you are wondering, the JOIDES Resolution that he mentions is a Deep Sea Drilling Research Vessel. “JOIDES” is an acronym and stands for Joint Oceanographic Institutions for Deep Earth Sampling (speaking from experience, let me tell you that it’s a fine art to get a good science-acronym-name… I have to say, I’m pretty rubbish at it). The “Resolution” part is in honour of the HMS Resolution, Captain James Cook’s vessel from the 1770s. Just in case you missed my rather BIG clue earlier (hint: ‘Deep Sea Drilling Research Vessel’), the JOIDES Resolution drills in the deep sea (well, it drills into the earth under the deep sea). J The samples of earth it collects are called ‘cores’, and they are analyzed back in labs to figure out the past history of our fabulous planet. Of course, a research cruise can have other things going on as well, such as atmospheric sampling of dust and microbes (Dale’s work), or running away from Tropical Storms.... ;-) You can find out more for yourself here: http://joidesresolution.org/, including cool pictures!

Toodles!
J.

p.s. thanks to Gene in Florida for getting the report to me from Dale in the Atlantic).

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storms Ophelia and Philippe: September 28, Update A

I’m running a tad bit late… I was doing my homework (i.e. watching episodes of Dr. Who ;-)).

Tropical Storm Ophelia
Officially she’s at 19.4N, 60.7W, heading NW at 6mph. Winds are now 60mph, so she’s a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph), with a central pressure of 995mb. The forecast calls for her to become a strong cat 1 hurricane on Friday, and crossing Bermuda on Saturday evening (as a hurricane). You guys must be used to this by now though! Steve, make sure you have your tea before the storm arrives this time.

She doesn’t look quite as robust today as she was looking yesterday (when she wasn’t even officially a Tropical Depression), but the wind shear has chopped her circulation off a bit so we can quite easily see her center of circulation. The islands had a relatively lucky time, because not only was the wind shear from the west (which means most of the convection was on her east side), but also she’s finally decided to make a move! Hurray. She’s heading northward(ish) at a slow pace. I agree with her location and direction, but I’m not sure wind speeds are as high as 60mph. Here are the visible and IR satellite images:



You can see that she is experiencing wind shear and is not very well put together at the moment.

Tropical Storm Philippe
Officially he’s at 17.4N, 40.8W heading WNW at 13mph. Winds are still those of a weak Tropical Storm, and are at 45mph with a central pressure of 1005mb.

He is a little more classic looking - a fine shape and demeanor. J Although officially he is a weaker storm than Ophelia, he does actually look stronger and better developed. Here are the IR and visible satellite images for Philippe as well, so you can see the difference between the two storms:



I’m not sure I agree with his central location either, but it’s night time so it is a bit tricky for me to see that anyway. It looks like he might be about 1 degree to the north.

The forecast track continues to shift to the west, instead of that silly NW track they had when he first emerged. I agree with a more westward track for now.

Both storms are very similar in terms of the amount of circulation they have. It’s just the convection that differs. It looks like Ophelia might continue to experience more wind shear than Philippe, so I’m not sure she will even turn into a hurricane.

Keeping with our Shakespeare theme (cos we’re so edumucated ;-)), if you find yourselves in London next year, Shakesperian plays will be performed at The Globe Theater… in sign language and hip-hop. I’ve seen one of his plays as a hip-hop musical. It was brilliant. Here’s the scoop: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-15058047?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter.

Night night until it be morrow,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: September 27, Update A

<Warning: tinged with a slight hint of sarcasm> For the last couple of days I’ve been calling Ophelia a Tropical Depression when really, officially, she wasn’t even that. I suppose I must have been hallucinating about the circulation and convection that she has had over the past 24 hours! However earlier this evening, after a plane went in to investigate, the NHC decided she was good enough to be reclassified as a weak Tropical Depression. Here are a couple of satellite images (visible and IR) of the Atlantic Basin, before she was ‘upgraded’ to a Tropical Depression:





You can see her just east of the Caribbean, and you can see the much stronger Tropical Storm Philippe in the eastern Atlantic… obviously she was much weaker than Philippe. <end of slight hint of sarcasm. Maybe.>

Tropical Depression Ophelia
In keeping with tradition, I expect they will turn her into a Tropical Storm when she’s over one of the islands. ;-) Although it looked like some of the islands have had a dollop of rain with a side of windy weather already (IR satellite image):



Officially she is now at 18.4N, 59.5W, moving NW at a very slow 3mph. Winds are 35mph and central pressure is 1009mb. I think they might have missed the boat on this one. I think she was a Tropical Storm, but in the last few hours wind shear has increased and the vorticity (circulation) has weakened, so it looks like she might be tiring herself out a bit. The latest satellite images show a much weaker storm than earlier today. I can’t quite tell where the center is, although it looks a little south and east of that official location.  It is also a bit tricky seeing which direction she’s heading in because she is still surrounded by high pressure. A slow NW or WNW movement is not beyond the realms of possibility. There are two factors that will work in weakening her… in addition to wind shear increasing, I’m sure the water temperature under her is cooler by now because she’s been stuck in that vicinity for about 2.5-3 days now (thank goodness she didn’t get stuck over land!). The islands might just have a lucky break if says ‘farewell’ before she can move.

Tropical Storm Philippe
Philippe is officially at 16.1N, 37W, heading WNW at 10mph. Winds are 40mph, so he’s barely a Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph), and central pressure is 1006mb.

I am pretty sure the NHC did not have this little guy at the correct location or correct heading over the last 24 hours. At the 11pm advisory yesterday he was at 15.9N, 34.8W, heading NW at 8mph. At 5am this morning he was at 16.1N, 35.1W, heading NW at 7mph. At 11am today, he was at 15.8N, 35.3W heading NW at 5mph. At 5pm today he was at 16N, 36W heading WNW at 7mph, and now he’s at 16.1N, 37W heading WNW at 10mph. So somehow he’s consistently had a northward component to his motion, but went from 16.1N to 15.8N… hmm. Also, looking at the forecast track from a day or two ago, he is definitely farther south and west than they expected (they also had forecasted that he would be a hurricane by Monday afternoon, so that part didn’t go as they expected either). At least now they have started to move his forecast track a little more westward than directly NW! And I would agree with his direction and speed of travel.

I also agree that he is a very weak Tropical Storm. Wind shear has resulted in the convection being mostly on the northeast side of the center of circulation. But once that shear kicked in (this morning), it became much easier to see his center of circulation (visible satellite image):



Although his convection is weak, I have to say his circulation is rather strong throughout the lower half of the troposphere. If he manages to get away from this wind shear and convection picks up, he could intensify into a rather good looking little storm – but that doesn’t look likely in the next day at least, if at all.

We’ll see what our little friends do tomorrow. I think they are both interesting (i.e. a little tricky to predict beyond a day or so) for the same two reasons for now – they are surrounded (more or less) by high pressure, and they are experiencing fairly strong wind shear.

Night night!
Adieu,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: September 26, Update A

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more! I can’t help it, you’re stuck with Shakespeare until Ophelia vanishes and today is not the day for that.

Tropical Depression Ophelia
The storm-formerly-known-as-Tropical-‘Depression’-Ophelia is most unlike Hamlet’s Ophelia; she’s not really depressed and looks like she’s all set to make a dramatic re-entry onto the Atlantic stage, quoting Monty Python: “I’m not dead…. I’m getting better” ;-). Although she still had some lower level circulation and convection yesterday, she was looking a bit disheveled. But today she’s thrown on a new costume and some make-up and is looking quite lively again. The NHC currently have her at a 60% chance of forming into a Tropical Storm, but here is a visible satellite movie of her: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html, and here's a visible satellite still picture as well:



Even though it is night, you can see the circulation and some of the outflow clouds around the edges (If you need a refresher on ‘outflow’, it’s in this entry: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2011/08/hurricane-irene-atlanic-blob-august-24.html). A Tropical Storm by any other name would still be a Tropical Storm.

Her circulation is now quite strong in the lower half of the troposphere (although not as strong as Philippe’s). She’s still experiencing a bit of wind shear, but it’s weaker than it was yesterday. I expect those on the islands are watching her every move like an adoring audience. Unfortunately I don’t have enough information to be able to determine which direction she’s going to move, but for now she looks like she’s a bit stuck there with high pressure all around. At a guess I’d say her center is around 18N, 58W and she’s moving westwardish very slowly. The NHC say she’s moving NW, but that the northern islands can expect heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Philippe
Officially he is currently at 15.4N, 34.4W, moving NW at 8mph. Winds have not changed since yesterday and continue to be 60mph, with a central pressure estimated to be 997mb. I think he might be a fraction stronger than this, but not quite a hurricane, so I agree with his Tropical Storm status. I’m not sure I agree as much about his location and direction. He has slowed down, which is what I expected because he had high pressure ahead of him. I am still not convinced his center is at that location or that he is moving NW, but I forgot to have a look at him during daylight hours and the visible satellite image is a bit murky now:



Oopsie. I’ll try and remember to pay more attention tomorrow. Poor, neglected Philippe! ;-) But really, does it look like his center is at 15.4N, 34.4W to you from this image? I don’t see it. It also doesn’t look like he’s moving anywhere in particular, which is what I would expect because he has high pressure to his east, north, and west. The only way for him to move at the moment would be south a bit, but I’m not sure if he’ll get an opportunity to do that.

Hurray, I finished an entry before midnight! J Maybe I’ll have a glass of wine to celebrate. Oh, and I reckon we should all try this at least once a day… “Smile: It confuses people.” ;-) (thanks for that one Tom!)

J.

p.s. Ben from California kindly pointed out that I made a grievous error in my adaptation of Shakespeare yesterday. The line should be “Alas, poor Ophelia, I knew her”. No “well” anywhere in sight! Doh! Apparently *some* people know their Shakespeare. ;-)

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: September 25, Update A

Apparently there *are* more than five people on this planet who know what New Orleans International Airport’s MSY stands for. I’m impressed... it took me ages (that would be ‘internet ages’, not ‘geological ages’) to find the answer! Mike from Louisiana was fastest on the buzzer… MSY is Moisant Stock Yard. Later I’ll tell you the story I found on the internet... by the way, I believe everything I read on the internet. Don’t you? (<--- especially if you read this on my blog site ;-) ).

As we expected, Ophelia is now officially no longer a Tropical Storm, and Philippe has been eating his spinach.

Tropical Depression Ophelia
She woke up this morning and decided she wasn’t going to follow the NHC forecast track after all. Which self-respecting storm does these days anyway? ;-) Instead she took a left turn and headed west towards the rum (and the islands in the northeastern Caribbean). This path makes a lot more sense to me because I was expecting her to be thirsty after crossing the Atlantic… er, I mean I expected her to be passing closer to the islands (south of their track). But they kept shifting the forecast track to the north, and given their pretty good track record (ha ha, puns intended ;-)) for the past two-three storms, I thought I was misreading the tea-leaves! (I’ll just have to have a few more cups of tea next time ;-)).

The NHC finally decided she was no longer a Tropical Storm and issued their last advisory on her at 5pm this evening. At that time (about 6 hours ago) she was at 18.5N, 60.9W, heading WNW at 8mph (so she’s slowed down quite a bit). Winds were 35mph, central pressure 1010mb.

I agree with downgrading her. Alas poor Ophelia, we knew her well. Her vorticity (circulation) is very weak now, although the convection has improved closer to the ‘center’. I think I’ll keep writing about her for a bit longer, because she still does have a bit of circulation and the islands will get some windy, possibly rainy weather over the next couple of days. The main convection is east of the ‘center’, which I’m estimating is around 18.5N, 61W.

Tropical Storm Philippe
Here is a visible satellite image of Philippe (taken at night, so he’s not as good looking as he would be during daylight):


He looks like a storm, which is a relief because that’s what he is. ;-) Officially he is at 14.1N, 32.5W, supposedly heading NW at 12mph. I’m not convinced of any of this. He looks like he is south and west of that location, and he’s heading in a more westward direction. He might even be slower, I can’t tell what his speed is, but I do know that there is high pressure to his north, and also in front of him, which might slow him down a bit.

His winds are 60mph (TS range: 39-73 mph), so he’s a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm. Central pressure is 997mb. Wind shear is very weak, and if he is actually going more westward than NW, it will stay weak for longer, so he’ll have a bit more room to intensify. Circulation is strong in the lower half of the troposphere, and convection is slowly getting stronger.

That’s all I got for storms. Now for the Intriguing Tale of MSY:
The Louis Armstrong New Orleans International airport has MSY as its code because no city beginning with K, W, or N can have that as their first initial in their airport code - those are the letters used for radio, TV and the Navy stations. John Moisant was a well-known pioneer aviator in the late 1800s/early 1900s. He died in a plane accident on the last day of 1910 in the current location of the airport. In his honour, the land was named by the owners (who had cattle) as Moisant Stock Yards. The city bought this land, and kept the airport name as Moisant Field. And ta-da… MSY. J

Dede from Alabama sent an interesting personal historical note: “It stands for Moisant airport, which is what the name was when I was a girl before jet airplanes were invented.  Really--there was a time when only small propeller planes flew from that airport.  Actually, the first jet plane I ever saw was flying out of that airport.  I thought it was a miracle the way it went STRAIGHT UP!”  How things have changed.

Until tomorrow,
Adieu,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storms Ophelia and Philippe: September 24, Update A

Hello there! I have returned from New Orleans… well, to be precise, I have returned from the world-famous New Orleans ‘Airport Quarter’. My job does take me to the most glamorous of locations. ;-) Fortunately I’ve been to The Crescent City many times, and I did at least manage to get my beignets from the airport. Yummy. J Having spent some time in the ‘New Orleans Airport Quarter’, here’s a trivia question for you: New Orleans airport initials are MSY… what does that stands for and why? Answer in tomorrow’s entry! J

In my absence I see Mother Nature snuck in another storm, Philippe. And I use ‘storm’ in the lightest sense of the word. But first, wherefore art thou Ophelia?

TS Ophelia
Officially she is at 18.3N, 58.4W, moving WNW at 12 mph. Winds are 45mph, central pressure is 1007mb. She has been hovering on the edge of barely being a Tropical Storm over the past couple of days (range: 39-73mph) and is still looking very ragged. It is the wind shear that has really kept her discombobulated. The circulation is very weak, and is confined to the lowest levels of the troposphere. Because she is so disorganized I cannot identify a center at all, so I’ll just go along with the NHC on the ‘center location’ and her movement direction/speed. She has a small amount of convection, mostly on the eastern side of the ‘center’ because of the wind shear. Personally, given the very weak circulation and the weak convection, I think this is a Tropical Depression and not a Tropical Storm. There is still strong wind shear ahead of her, so I don’t know how much longer she’ll hold on to her Tropical Storm status.

TS Philippe
This far east Atlantic Blob became a Tropical Depression earlier today, and was rapidly promoted to a very weak Tropical Storm in the 5pm advisory. Officially he is at 11.6N, 28.8W, moving WNW at 13mph. Wind speeds are estimated to be 40mph, central pressure 1006mb. The forecast keeps him out in the Atlantic and has him turning into a cat 1 hurricane (range: 74-95mph) by Monday afternoon. The circulation is stronger in Philippe than in Ophelia, with decent circulation in the lower half of the troposphere. His convection is not very well organized yet, but wind shear is low so I think this will improve over the next day. However, I am not sure he will reach hurricane strength if he stay on the forecast track because the waters are a little on the cool side.

Not much more to say about either of these storms for now. There’s another blobette that the NHC are watching, just off the east coast of Florida/Bahamas region. This is more like a front than a tropical system though, and both the convection and the vorticity (circulation) are pretty weak. I’ll mention it if it looks like it’s going to become something.

It’s Autumn. Hurray! J
That’s all for today.
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Ophelia: September 21, Update A

I knew you were an erudite bunch, although I’m not sure everyone got all the Shakespeare references that I put in there – heck, I don’t even know if I got them all! ;-) But more on this later. I have one or two things to say about the storm today.

For some inexplicable reason the NHC decided to say in the 11am advisory that: “...OPHELIA BECOMES STRONGER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...” , and they increased the wind speed this morning from 45mph (5am advisory) to 60mph (11am advisory). Oh, my bad, I forgot… they did give a “reason”. I’ll get to that in a moment. Her winds have stayed at 60mph all day, which means she’s a mid-to-strong sized Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is currently estimated to be 1000mb. Here is the IR satellite image from earlier today, taken just after I read she had winds of 60mph, and the second image is the IR image I posted from yesterday evening (check the date stamp at the bottom if you get them confused):



See any changes? Isn’t it funny how she looks like she got a little weaker overnight, not stronger? Would you like to know the reason why the NHC said she got stronger this morning? (you’ll love this, I did) From the NHC 11am Advisory: “ALTHOUGH OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...A 1200 UTC ASCAT PASS AND AN OBSERVATION FROM SHIP PBSY INDICATES THAT THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 50 KT. SINCE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS CURRENTLY NOT SUGGESTIVE OF STRENGTHENING...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE WAS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.”

And the English translation: we have said she’s stronger now because she looks weaker than yesterday, but we have a ship reading and a satellite (ASCAT) estimate that says the winds are stronger than we think they should be if she weakened from our guesstimate yesterday, so we were wrong yesterday.

I have more than one problem with this:
1. The logical reasoning.
2. They say she ‘becomes stronger’ as she moves across the Atlantic, when actually she weakened.
3.The belief in today’s observations, compared to yesterday’s – and a single ship reading is not enough to tip the scales.
4.The convoluted explanation.
5.They didn’t change yesterday’s winds, but if they were stronger than this morning as the message suggests, it means she was closer to being a hurricane than expected… she was no way near being that strong yesterday!

Moving on from this…. She is currently at about 13.5N, 45W, moving generally westward at 16mph. The high pressure to her north and west has been growing and now extends into the Caribbean. I think tomorrow she will slow down in speed because there appears to be high pressure in front of her (for her, that’s like climbing up a hill). She will continue to try and move westward until this high pressure erodes. The models are in good agreement that she’ll curve WNW and NW towards the northeastern Caribbean, possibly staying on the Atlantic side of the Virgin Islands. If she slows down in the next 24 hours, there is a possibility that this forecast track might shift southward. However the models have been rather good at the track with the last few storms, which is why I am not sure if the high pressure will stay in place. Tomorrow I’ll be looking at her forward speed.

Wind shear remains strong. Her center is to the southwest of the convection, and most of the convection is concentrated in the northeast quadrant of the storm.

Now forget about those silly storm thingies. That’s not really why you are here, is it? You want to know about how many Shakespeare quotes I think I put in yesterday’s estimate. J Jim and Gary, both from Florida, were the closest with 9 and 13 respectively. Gary said he had a margin of error of 3, so he might have the correct number. But overestimating the number in my mind is fantastic… it means my writing is indistinguishable from Shakespeare’s writings!! And that means I’m a genius writer, or we’ve just provided more evidence that any monkey can write like Shakespeare. ;-)

The Answers from yesterday:
1. Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears. From Julius Caesar. (No, he’s not asking for people to do a Van Gogh and literally lend him their ears!)
2. …when last we met… From er… that well-known Shakespearean piece that I remember well, called Star Wars. Umm, that was a deliberate red herring, yeah, deliberate, that’s right…. Besides it’s so easy to confuse Darth Vadar with Romeo these days, isn’t it?
3. …glass of fashion… From Hamlet (the glass of fashion means a mirror of comportment or mirror of form… not to be confused with Harry Potter’s Mirror of Eirised ;-))
4. Tempest From The Tempest ( ok, this was more of a title than a quote)
5. …what’s in a name?... from Romeo and Juliet (the famous bit that follows is: That which we call a rose By any other name would smell as sweet)
6. ...to be or not to be… From Hamlet (possibly the most famous line of them all!)
7. …more things in heaven and earth. From Hamlet.
8. …let every eye negotiate for itself. From Much Ado About Nothing.
9. …all that glisters is not gold… From The Merchant of Venice (sometimes contorted to all the glistens is not gold – I think)
10. … go thou with her to the west… From The Two Gentlemen of Verona
11. More tomorrow, tomorrow and tomorrow. From Macbeth (that Scottish play ;-))
12. Good night, good night! Parting is such sweet sorrow, That I shall say good night till it be morrow. From Romeo and Juliet.

Goodness, what a long entry. Ophelia has probably weakened further and is now a hurricane since I started writing!

Traveling again tomorrow, but I’ll check in when I can.
I shall say good night till it be morrow! J
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Ophelia: September 20, Update A

Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears. Has it only been two days when last we met? Ophelia has achieved the glass of fashion in the storm world, and is now a fully-fledged little Tempest. But what’s in a name? And what the heck have I just been babbling about? ;-) … Well, with our newly formed Tropical Storm Ophelia out there, how many Shakespeare quotes can you find in here (answers tomorrow… assuming I can find them all ;-))?

This poor little Atlantic blobette has been struggling for the past few days. I expect she was wondering whether to be or not to be (oooh… a pun AND a quote! Sometimes I amaze myself… ;-) ). However, today there are more things in heaven and earth: her circulation improved during the day, and her convection is slowly slowly improving. Ophelia has had some lower tropospheric rotation for the past couple of days, but the convection just wasn’t coming together. This morning the clouds were rather disjoint and although the convection is a bit stronger now, it is still not very cohesive, but I say let every eye negotiate for itself. The first satellite IR image I saved this morning, and the other one just now – 12.5 hours later:



Officially she’s at 12.2N, 40.1W, moving W at 9mph. But all that glisters is not gold and with wind speeds of 40mph, she’s barely a Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is 1006mb.

I think she’s a little farther west than the official location, but for now I agree with the NHC and reiterate, go thou with her to the west, with a gradual turn to the NW. Her center of circulation is on the west side of the convection and she is weak because she’s experiencing wind shear from the west, which looks like it will continue for now at least. At the moment I agree with the NHC assessment of intensity as well and don’t think she will get to hurricane strength – wind shear looks like it will remain quite chipper.

More tomorrow, tomorrow and tomorrow.
Good night, good night! Parting is such sweet sorrow,
That I shall say good night till it be morrow.
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Wrap-Up on H. Maria: September 18, Update A

Hurricane Maria had long gone by the time I got back to a computer on Friday evening, so instead of wrapping things up, I’ve been dawdling, pottering, sleeping, dawdling some more, eating, drinking, and pottering again. Time for some final thoughts (including a science AND forecasting alert – ooh… two for the price of one!! ;-)), then I can get back to my pottering and dawdling and another cup of tea (it’s a sleepy Sunday morning… there’s time for TWO cups of tea!).

Maria was not a hurricane as she went by Newfoundland but, in my humble opinion she was an extratropical storm (with tropical storm force winds). The Canadian forecast (from Environment Canada – the Canadian weather service) expected maximum winds of around 43mph in the St. John’s region of Newfoundland, which would mean her winds were equal to a weak Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph), not a hurricane. (Oh by the way, in case you were wondering, more than three people do actually live north of Maine. Look on googlemaps… there are cities and towns and everything up there! ;-))

The last NHC advisory was at 5pm AST (Atlantic Standard Time, which is the time zone for that part of Canada) on Friday, when they had her as a post-tropical storm, with winds of 70mph, central pressure of 982mb, heading NE at 58mph, and that was their last advisory.

Tom from St. Thomas raised a very good point after my previous update. He asked that if the winds were 80mph, and she was moving forward at 43mph, does this mean that the winds in some parts of the storm were approaching 123mph?

<Science AND Forecasting Alert!> The maximum winds were 80mph, not 123mph, because the NHC already allow for the forward motion in their 80mph wind estimate. If Maria had been stationary, her winds would be around 37mph (not even a Tropical Storm!). But because she was moving forward at 43mph, that was added and the highest winds are what we get as the storm’s winds in the advisories.

These winds are not evenly distributed around the storm. In the Northern Hemisphere, winds move around the storm center in an anti-clockwise manner. So generally, the right side of the storm has stronger winds than the left side of the storm because those winds are in the same direction as the movement of the storm. Here is a simple picture to show this (thanks to the NOAA/NHC website for the graphic, http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html, which addresses this question):


<End of Science AND Forecasting Alert!>

There are currently three yellow blobs on the NHC map… they aren’t very well formed, so I’ll let them cook for another day or two before writing more. See yas later!
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Maria: September 15, Update A

Really? A hurricane? And we were all getting along so nicely. Sigh. For some reason, the NHC have decided that Maria is now a Hurricane. I would have to politely disagree.

Officially she is at 38.5N, 63.5W, and is moving NE at 43 mph (!!)!!(!!)!! (yes, even my parenthetical exclamation marks have exclamation marks! (<--- one that escaped the herd). Winds are 80mph, central pressure 984mb. 80mph winds makes her fall into that hurricane cat 1 range of 74-95mph. A forward movement of 43mph makes her most definitely a storm that has merged with a low pressure front and is therefore not a hurricane!! (<--- I can’t help it!).

Here is the Infra-red satellite image of Maria at 02:45 UTC… around 9:45pm EST. The official numbers I mention above are in the 11pm EST.

That does not even look like a hurricane!!(!!).

They upgraded her at the 5pm advisory.. when she was at 35.2N, 65.6W. Outside of the tropics and just over 200 miles NNW of Bermuda. Water temperatures in this area are 26-27 deg C, so just about enough to sustain a Tropical Storm, not really to turn one into a hurricane.

Circulation continues to remain strong in the lower troposphere, but the upper tropospheric circulation was a little stronger when she was farther south, near Bermuda. So that has weakened.

Wind shear is also pretty strong… which is why she’s all over the map. She is feeling a wind shear of 30-70 knots at the moment – so the shear is in some parts as strong as the winds within the storm. Hmm. Coincidence? Hmm. Wind shear will continue to remain strong.

I understand that Newfoundland will get some windy weather, with a bit of rain. But really, a hurricane?

Meanwhile, back on Bermuda… they got some stormy weather this afternoon from Tropical Storm Maria, as expected. From Steve at 1pm EST: “ A rather large limb on tree in front of our labs snapped. The bamboo outside my lab is swirling wildly and it's starting to get darker!” That seems to be the worst of it that I heard about … well, other than he couldn’t get his afternoon tea from the other building because it was raining horizontally, and it would have diluted the tea (we can’t be having that!).

That’s it from me from sunny Jacksonville (well, I’m sure it would be sunny if it wasn’t the middle of the night). (Huh. A Hurricane. Huh. Mumble grumble).

Night night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Maria: September 14, Update A

If you liked the 360 deg photo thingy of Paris yesterday, Dan from Florida sent me some more. Here’s one from the flight deck of the Space Shuttle Discovery! http://360vr.com/2011/06/22-discovery-flight-deck-opf_6236/index.html. You can click the mouse and scroll up and down too. Nice stuff! Thanks Dan.

Ok, onto the matter at hand. The high pressure shifted as expected and she’s chugging along at a lovely pace now.

Tropical Storm Maria is officially centered at 27.2N, 68.9W, heading NNE at 17mph. Winds are 65mph (central pressure is 999mb), making her a strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph).

They readjusted her center to the west early this morning, after which she carried on moving NNW, before heading N, and now she’s on that NNE track. She’ll zip by Bermuda tomorrow afternoon. She is still a little messy, and it is tricky to see a clear center so I will go with the NHC and hurricane hunter plane center. I agree with the track forecast – she will carry on NNE, then NE continuing around that high.

The convection has improved a smidgen and circulation is rather strong in the lower half of the troposphere, with some circulation in the upper troposphere. However, wind shear will continue to increase so I don’t think she will be more than a very strong Tropical Storm (at the most she may be a very weak cat 1 storm) – this is also in agreement with the NHC, who do not have her getting to hurricane strength, although they have issued a hurricane watch for Bermuda. I think her center will pass west of the island, but as most of the convection is on the east side of the storm (because of wind shear), that’s where the thundery weather is lurking and so you might get some rather stormy conditions even if she’s not actually a hurricane.

In addition to Tropical Storm Maria, there’s another squiggly blob that just came off Africa. Alas, there’s a hiccup on the website so I can’t see what the convection is for this one but the circulation is very weak at the moment.  My, what a busy season this is…  http://xkcd.com/944/ (hee hee, thanks to Heather from Florida for sending this link J).

Another busy day tomorrow, with travel and whatnot... I’ll check in as soon as I can. Good luck on Bermuda! Be safe.
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Maria: September 13, Update A

Only one storm? It’s been a while since we’ve only had one to chit-chat about… I’m feeling a bit off-balance! Or maybe that’s from the (one) glass of wine I’ve already had this evening? ;-)

Maria is still loitering just north of the Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic area and hasn’t made much of a move since yesterday.

Officially she is at 23.5N, 68.2E, moving N at 9mph. Winds are still 50mph (a weak-to-mid intensity storm, TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure is 1003mb.

I kinda sorta agree with the official information. She is not very well organized, so it is difficult for me to figure out where her center is, and therefore also which direction she is moving in – it looks like the NHC are also ‘guestimating’ her center: “THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BELIEVED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.” I think it’s very possible that her center is a little south of this location. Regardless, it looks like the high pressure that has been holding her in place is now shifting. Soon she will really be able to move. It looks like she’ll move to the NW first, then clockwise around the high pressure, to the North and Northeast. Bermuda… got your rain gear out?

The intensity seems reasonable at the moment and I am not sure if it will really increase too much for now. Convection is not very strong, and although the circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere there is still some wind shear that is now the main reason why the intensity has not increased. It looks like wind shear will continue to remain strong(ish) for now.

Our fabulous reporter from the field, Tom in St. Thomas, said (at ~7am EST this morning): “from the looks of the sat. pics we get a weeks rest from all of these tropical systems forming….. had lots of rain here but nothing flooding us out yet...Puerto Rico coping with the rain today....we can use the rest as yesterday we had 8 hours of no electricity due to some storm issue at the plant.”

Oh dear, 8 hours with no electricity… I hope you had some yummy ice cream to eat! ;-)

Looks like PR is out of the rain, but the Dominican Republic is getting a bit now.

I’ll pop back tomorrow with more about this flibberty-gibbet of a storm.
Adieu,
J.

p.s. Here’s a very cool photo thingy (for want of a better description), that I got from Tim in Florida. For all you world travelers (past, present and future), it’s a 360 panoramic view of the Sunset and the Eiffel Tower in Paris:  http://360.io/EZyhtz. Put your mouse over the photo, hold and drag in the direction you want to see. (Of course I like the clouds ;-)).

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Maria and the last bits of Katia and Nate: September 12, Update A

Did you know that statistically this week is the peak of the hurricane season? Here is a figure of the number of hurricanes and tropical storms from NOAA and when they occur throughout the season:


Hurray! We have climbed the mountain… and speaking of climbing mountains (we’re back to The Sound of Music), the only real storm today is Tropical Storm Maria. (hope you liked that segue, I worked hard on that one J).

First, The Remains of Katia. She reached the British Isles today, and they had gusts up to (at least) 82mph – she mostly went over Scotland. I hear it was a ‘bit breezy’ really. This is my last entry on Katia.

Second, The Remains of Nate. He became a Tropical Depression yesterday, soon after making landfall. Not much left of him now. This is my last entry on Nate.

And that leaves Maria. What shall we do with Maria? J She has been hanging out just north of Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic for most of the day today. She’s currently at around 21N, 67.5W, drifting NW at a whopping 2mph (goodness me, I can walk up and down big hills faster than that!), so she’s essentially stationary. Actually, I think she’s moving a little faster than that, but not much. This is because she is surrounded by high pressure. I don’t see her making a run for it until tomorrow sometimes, and even then I’m not sure. I’ll have to look at the latest pressure fields tomorrow. Her winds have decreased to 50mph because of the wind shear and dry air we saw in the satellite image yesterday. This makes her a weak-to-mid level Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph – I expect you all know this as well by now! J). Central pressure is 1006mb. She has a lot of convection and thundery weather, all to the east and south of her center (result of wind shear). It looks like she is generating showers over the VIs, PR, and the Dominican Republic. I hope she does manage to get moving soon, because I don’t know if they want any more rain down there, and Haiti could do without a drenching.

More tomorrow!
Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Extratropical Storm Katia, Tropical Storms Maria and Nate: September 11, Update A

First, I couldn’t let this day go without mentioning the topical events a decade ago that changes the world we knew.  I remember visiting the WTC on my first trip to the US (and many times after that) and marveling at the little ant-cars zipping around on the streets below. I remember where I was when it happened, as I’m sure everyone does. I remember the surreal and eerie silence in the days that followed, including in the skies. I know some of you lost family and friends in those events, and I know many more were affected in some manner or another. My thoughts are with you on this day.

But now, back to the topical tropics of today and the lack of silence in the skies

Extratropical Storm Katia
She’s still on course for the northern British Isles tomorrow. Warnings to be prepared for windy and wet weather have been issued. I don’t see too much rain left in Katia, but she’ll definitely be a windy. Don’t bother with your umbrellas.

Tropical Storm Maria
Maria’s convection increased a lot yesterday, and she’s beginning to look like she has a better defined center to the northeast of the VIs. Most of the convection is out in the Atlantic  too. As Tom on St. Thomas said in an email (at 3-something am!), they will get away with it lightly on the VIs.

She’s officially at 19N, 63.7W heading NW at 13mph. I agree with the forecast track, which keeps her away from the US. However, it might get a bit wet and windy on Bermuda (and the surrounding seas might be a tad on the choppy side… anyone going on a cruise out there perchance?).

Winds are currently 60mph, so she’s a mid-intensity Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). I agree with the NHC that she will remain a Tropical Storm for the next day at least. Although her circulation is good in the lower troposphere and water temperatures are 29-30 deg C (with water warmer than 26 deg C in the upper ~75m of the water column), wind shear is quite strong and blowing from the southwest. This is very clear in the satellite image of water vapor, which shows a better defined edge on the west side and a stream of clouds on the north and east side – she’s a bit lop-sided:


You can also see dry air on her west side (it’s the brown section of the Water Vapor image). This will also inhibit her development.

Tropical Storm Nate
He is just about making landfall between Veracruz and Tuxpan, Mexico (about 10am EST), as you can see in the visible satellite image:


His center at around 20.2N, 96.7W and he’s moving generally westward at 10mph. Winds are officially 45mph (central pressure 1005mb), so he is a very weak Tropical Storm. There is hardly any rainfall in this system. I expect he’ll be a Tropical Depression within a few hours of landfall (by tonight).

Cynthia from Maryland asked why they don’t show a 5-day forecast cone on the 5-day forecast plot. This is because they only show the forecast cone until the point when the storm is forecast to dissipate. If it is dissipating within 5 days (or 3 days), they will show the cones on those plots, but for fewer days.

Later gators! (and all other college football teams. Sigh. ;-))
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Extratropical Storm Katia, Tropical Storms Maria and Nate: September 10, Update A

Not much time to dilly dally at the moment!

Extratropical Storm Katia (or Post-Tropical if you go with the relatively new NHC name)
She is now at around 44.7N, 47.7N heading ENE at a very very rapid 53mph! This speed alone suggests she is extratropical. She’s been like this since yesterday, but is now officially an ex-Hurricane, heading towards the British Isles.

Winds are officially 80mph, central pressure is 954mb. I think she’s a bit weaker, but will still bring wind (gale force in some parts) and rain. The NHC have issued their last advisory on Katia, but say that those in the UK and northern Europe should get info from the UK Met Office (yay!) at www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather. Here’s their severe weather warning page: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html.

I’ll keep following her for now… someone in the UK can send me a weather report (“raining, blustery, raining, tea break, windy, windy, raining, tea break, raining, windy, raining, tea break, windy…”) . Fun weather across the pond this week!

Terrance sent me this photo of Katia’s clouds at sunset (taken by Roydon) when she was visiting Bermuda.


Pretty sky! (I like clouds J). Thanks Terrance (and Roydon)!

Tropical Storm Maria
She’s really not a Tropical Storm but rather a low pressure depression. However the NHC are keeping her as such for now (just in case she changes her mind). They have discontinued all warnings. There’s no real circulation in this system, and although the winds are officially 40mph (central pressure 1007mb), that’s just to keep her at the TS classification (TS range: 39-73mph). They cannot locate a center, but are guessing it to be at 17.3N, 61.5N, with a similar guess regarding her direction and movement – NW at 15mph.

What I see is some circulation in the lower troposphere, right over the Windward Isles (a bit south of the official center), however, I cannot see an exact center either, and have not been able to for a few days. So I would agree with keeping her as a very weak Tropical Storm. She has room to move NW now because the high pressure that was keeping her on a westward track has eroded. There is a hefty band of convection though, because water temperatures are warm (a lovely 29-30 deg C). You can see this in the IR satellite image:


Tom on St. Thomas wrote yesterday that he’s expecting a “good bit of rain”. Yes indeed!

Tropical Storm Nate
They have downgraded their estimate on his intensity and no longer are forecasting a hurricane, quite rightly so. It looks like it wasn’t only the closeness to land that was suppressing him, but also dry air. He’s a weak TS, and official winds are 50mph, central pressure 1000mb. He doesn’t have a lot of convection, more cloudy with bits of rain (‘bits of rain’ = very precise scientific measurement ;-)), so I agree with keeping him as a weak Tropical Storm. As far as the vorticity (circulation) goes, he has as much as Maria, but he is a bit better organized so it’s easier to see the center, which is at around 20N, 94.2W (moving W at 6mph)... right towards a Mexico landfall tomorrow.

And that’s all I have time for at the moment… I have important things to do. Like finishing eating my yummy homemade British pancakes (not to be confused with American pancakes or French crepes) and British TV to watch! J More later though.

Chow!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storms Maria and Nate: September 8, Update A

Today is a big day. It is the 45^th anniversary of Star Trek. The <whisper>third<whisper> best sci-fi tv show ever. (Shhhh… I have to whisper because I suspect there are one or two Star Trek fans reading this…don’t tell them, but the top two are Blake’s 7 and Dr. Who ;-)). Happy Birthday Star Trek!

It is also a big day because there are three storms out there now. Nate has grown up since yesterday. He broke away from his low pressure front home and is now standing on his own two storm feet. He’s not yet learned to walk on them though, so he’s still tottering around over the Bay of Campeche. More on Baby Nate later.

Hurricane Katia
She’s pretty well behaving as expected. All day today she’s been a cat 1 (range: 74-95mph) and is following the forecast track. She’s currently at about 36.3N, 68.8W moving NE at a rapid speed 21mph. Officially wind speeds are currently 85mph (mid-level storm), central pressure is 973mb. There is really not a lot of convection in this system so I expect she’s a weak cat 1 by now, but I’ll go with the NHC on this one.

On Bermuda, Steve says: “It’s windy but not so much to raise an eyelid. We have cloudy skies, low humidity and mid 20dC. Sparkling weather!”

Time for another round of golf to celebrate? ;-)

There’s not much more to say about Katia for today. She’ll move NNE then NE, towards the UK. She’ll remain a cat 1 for now.

Tropical Storm Maria
Like the song says, Maria is a Williow the Wisp. She weakened earlier today and now officially has winds of 40mph, central pressure 1005mb. Winds that low suggest she is barely a Tropical Storm. She also continued westward rather than take that WNW/NW turn. She’s at 13.2 N, 53.6W moving rapidly W at 21mph.

The forecast track still has her making a WNW turn, but it has shifted south so now she’ll enter the Caribbean and pass south of the VIs on Saturday. From what I am seeing that high pressure to her north is still holding steady which suggests to me that she’ll carry on a more westward track tomorrow as well.

She is really a messy little storm! I can’t see her center of circulation and will go with the NHC on this. Convection has increased a bit because she is moving over warm waters, but the circulation is weak in the middle levels of the troposphere and there will continue to be some wind shear. It’s unlikely that she will get much stronger before she gets to the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Storm Nate
As I mentioned earlier, he grew up into a proper Tropical Storm today and I can talk about him now. Phew! ;-)

They sent a plane in today to get his measurements and officially he’s at 19.7N, 92.2W, and is stationary. Wind speeds are officially at 70mph, central pressure is 994mb. The forecast models still have him going all over the place.

The reason he is stationary is because he is surrounded by high pressure. You can imagine him being stuck in a well and until the walls are broken he won’t be going anywhere. Being stationary makes the forecast track for any storm even more difficult than usual, which is why the models can’t agree at the moment. There are a couple of things that are confusing the track forecast for Nate:
1. He is stationary. The longer he remains in one place, the more the surrounding pressure fields have a chance to adjust around him, so when he does get going things might be different.
2. He is a messy storm. I can’t see where the center is actually, so I will have to go with the NHC and the plane fix, but I am not 100% convinced that his center is at that location. I think he is a bit farther south, and may already be interacting with Mexico.

His convection has decreased a lot in the past few hours – you can see this in the latest IR satellite image:


His vorticity (circulation) has also deteriorated. This suggests he is struggling. But wind shear is very weak and water temperatures are warm, so I think it must be interaction with land that has caused him to deteriorate.  I don’t think the winds are as strong as 70mph, and I would classify him as a weak-to-mid level Tropical Storm.

Now for something completely different…
Hey new readers! Welcome. I know a bunch of new people started reading this recently. First, I’m sorry and are you sure? ;-) Second, I’ve been explaining all sorts of fascinating jargon and wonderful sciencey stuff throughout the season so if I use a word that is new to you, you have two choices… you can either scroll through the ~15 billion updates I’ve had to write this season and see if you can find the jargon explanation… or you can send me a question asking for clarification. I can’t promise that you’ll go away any more enlightened, but there’s no harm in trying, right? ;-)

That’s it from me in Savannah. I’ve been here a few times, and it is still a charming city to visit. Clay from Georgia sent me this delightful description: “Savannah is a charming old dowager, like the old widow who lives alone in the weathered mansion, probably haunted, but lovely.” J

Tally-ho!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Katia and Tropical Storms Maria and Nate: September 7, Update A

<warning: heavy sarcasm advisory> Today we shall all play ‘How Not To Be Seen’ (a la Monty Python). In these satellite images (both visible and infrared) from this evening, there are THREE Tropical Storms/Hurricanes:





Can you spot them all? In the middle of the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Maria, near Bermuda is Hurricane Katia. And yes, for those of you with a sharp eye (or those of you who have seen the latest hurricane map), in the Gulf is Tropical Storm Nate… who is cunningly disguised as a low pressure FRONT. And how do we know this is what he is disguised as? Because there are clouds extending in a linear manner from Central America to Florida. <end of heavy sarcasm advisory>

<mutter grumble mutter mutter>

Hurricane Katia
She is currently officially at 30.8N, 70.0W, heading NNW at 13mph. Winds are 80mph, central pressure is 982mb.

At least they downgraded her earlier today to a mid-level category 1 storm (range: 74-95mph), so I think they finally have the right intensity. She is making that curve towards the North as expected.  There is still a lot of dry air on her western side, which continues to inhibit development. But as you can see from the satellite images, Bermuda is on the east side (you might need to get your magnifying glasses out to find the island). It is unlikely that she will get too much stronger than this, given that she is moving north over cooler waters (although wind shear is still looking a little light), but Bermuda will get something other than their clear sunny skies.

Current conditions on Bermuda are Cloudy and Breezy… umm… weren’t they two of the dwarves?

Earlier today I heard from Steve on Bermuda. We had a serious discussion of the deteriorating weather conditions on the island:
S: “it's a bit bloody breezy now… Reckon 50/50 as to whether (pun intended) the BA flight will leave tomorrow night.”
J: “Haha... nice pun. :-)  It's going to get a bit breezier... Are you all set for the weather?”
S: “yes all set for the weather. That's why we moved tomorrow evening's golf game and had it last evening. I'm no fool!”
J: “I expect you'll be having a BBQ tomorrow evening instead?”
S: “are you kidding! We have the hot air balloon already to go. We're taking parachutes just in case though.”
J: “That's terribly prudent of you.”
S: “well we're not so silly as to through caution to the wind.”

If anyone would like a Hot Air Balloon ride over Bermuda tomorrow, please contact Steve. ;-) I’m hoping for more updates from Bermuda tomorrow.

I expect her to continue making that forecast turn to the north, and remaining a cat 1 storm as she skirts around Bermuda. Interestingly, the forecast is for her to be an Extratropical Storm as she get to the UK on Monday afternoon. Given that she is a mid-level cat 1 now, there is a good possibility that she’ll be weaker than that. It may be a bit breezy in Scotland… but they won’t notice the difference up there anyway.

Tropical Storm Maria

From The Sound of Music (I did warn you all yesterday):
“How do you solve a problem like Maria?
How do you catch a cloud and pin it down?
How do you find a word that means Maria?
A flibbertijibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A clown!”

As expected, TD 14 turned into TS Maria. Currently she is at 13.2N, 44.2W, zooming along generally westward at 23 mph. Winds are 50mph, making her a weak-to-mid level Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1002mb.

She is too disorganized for me to be able to see where her center of circulation is, but it looks like it is north of the official location. The convection is trying to sort itself out, but for now it is not very strong because of wind shear in this area. There is some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere. I would say she is a weak level Tropical Storm for now. There is no lower level convergence or upper level divergence to speak of, and the wind shear looks like it will get stronger, so I think she might weaken a bit further.

The forecast is for her to continue westward and then curve WNW and NW, through the northeastern Caribbean islands, and up towards the eastern seaboard. I can see her continuing westward for now because at the moment there is an area of high pressure that extends into the Caribbean. Until that erodes, I think she’ll carry on westward. However the track models have been pretty good with Irene and now Katia (all the girl name storms ;-)), and they are taking this one to the NW – anywhere from the eastern US to Bermuda. It wouldn’t hurt to keep an eye on this one, but I don’t think she’ll be very strong by the time she gets to the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Nate
<cough><mutter><mumble><cough>

I can’t believe they named this! There is some weak vorticity (circulation) in the lower troposphere which is connected to vorticity across the Gulf. This corresponds to the convection you saw in the satellite images. There is no upper level divergence and very little lower level convergence, so this doesn’t have a good tropical storm structure at all.  Could it be that this is a front, not a tropical storm?

Even the NHC know this:

“… OVERALL THE SYSTEM RETAINS A SOMEWHAT BAROCLINIC APPEARANCE DUE TO ITS POSITION NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A FRONTAL ZONE”

They have him as almost stationary over the Bay of Campeche, and forecast him to become a hurricane by Friday, with landfall in Mexico (on the western side of the Bay) on Monday evening. He is officially at 20.4N, 92.5W, moving E at 2mph. Winds are 45mph, central pressure is 1003mb. Officially he is barely a Tropical Storm. According to the NHC, their two satellite estimates of intensity have winds below Tropical Storm strength, but A SINGLE ship reported winds in ONE location that were a little stronger, so they are taking that as their basis! WHAT! A SINGLE Instrument! Really?!? (And you know that ships report stronger winds in fronts too by the way, because there are areas of windy weather in low pressure fronts too). I’m going to walk away from Nate for now and revisit him tomorrow. Maybe he’ll be something that walks and talks like a grown up Tropical Storm by then.

Speaking of tomorrow, I’m traveling again. Back to Georgia… to the delightful city of Savannah this time (did you know that life is like a box of chocolates there? Sweet, but melted and gooey in the heat ;-)). I’ll check in when I can!

Good luck on Bermuda.
Night night,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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