Monday, September 26, 2011

Tropical Depression Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: September 26, Update A

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more! I can’t help it, you’re stuck with Shakespeare until Ophelia vanishes and today is not the day for that.

Tropical Depression Ophelia
The storm-formerly-known-as-Tropical-‘Depression’-Ophelia is most unlike Hamlet’s Ophelia; she’s not really depressed and looks like she’s all set to make a dramatic re-entry onto the Atlantic stage, quoting Monty Python: “I’m not dead…. I’m getting better” ;-). Although she still had some lower level circulation and convection yesterday, she was looking a bit disheveled. But today she’s thrown on a new costume and some make-up and is looking quite lively again. The NHC currently have her at a 60% chance of forming into a Tropical Storm, but here is a visible satellite movie of her:, and here's a visible satellite still picture as well:

Even though it is night, you can see the circulation and some of the outflow clouds around the edges (If you need a refresher on ‘outflow’, it’s in this entry: A Tropical Storm by any other name would still be a Tropical Storm.

Her circulation is now quite strong in the lower half of the troposphere (although not as strong as Philippe’s). She’s still experiencing a bit of wind shear, but it’s weaker than it was yesterday. I expect those on the islands are watching her every move like an adoring audience. Unfortunately I don’t have enough information to be able to determine which direction she’s going to move, but for now she looks like she’s a bit stuck there with high pressure all around. At a guess I’d say her center is around 18N, 58W and she’s moving westwardish very slowly. The NHC say she’s moving NW, but that the northern islands can expect heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Philippe
Officially he is currently at 15.4N, 34.4W, moving NW at 8mph. Winds have not changed since yesterday and continue to be 60mph, with a central pressure estimated to be 997mb. I think he might be a fraction stronger than this, but not quite a hurricane, so I agree with his Tropical Storm status. I’m not sure I agree as much about his location and direction. He has slowed down, which is what I expected because he had high pressure ahead of him. I am still not convinced his center is at that location or that he is moving NW, but I forgot to have a look at him during daylight hours and the visible satellite image is a bit murky now:

Oopsie. I’ll try and remember to pay more attention tomorrow. Poor, neglected Philippe! ;-) But really, does it look like his center is at 15.4N, 34.4W to you from this image? I don’t see it. It also doesn’t look like he’s moving anywhere in particular, which is what I would expect because he has high pressure to his east, north, and west. The only way for him to move at the moment would be south a bit, but I’m not sure if he’ll get an opportunity to do that.

Hurray, I finished an entry before midnight! J Maybe I’ll have a glass of wine to celebrate. Oh, and I reckon we should all try this at least once a day… “Smile: It confuses people.” ;-) (thanks for that one Tom!)


p.s. Ben from California kindly pointed out that I made a grievous error in my adaptation of Shakespeare yesterday. The line should be “Alas, poor Ophelia, I knew her”. No “well” anywhere in sight! Doh! Apparently *some* people know their Shakespeare. ;-)

Blogs archived at
Twitter @JyovianStorm

DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

No comments: