Thursday, November 10, 2011

Tropical Storm Sean: November 10, Update A

I found two things of note today. First, I found a sharp metal shaving in a restaurant. I was there for lunch and it caught my attention after I realized it didn’t have quite the same consistency as the cooked pasta I was chewing. Oops. And second, I found that the NHC and I are in better agreement. Not oops. J

Tropical Storm Sean is currently at 31.5N, 68.2W moving ENE at a nice 13mph. He has remained a mid-to-high Tropical Storm with winds of 65mph and central pressure of 983mb. His convection has improved a bit, but the dry air is still a factor and the wind shear is pretty strong for him so the convection is all to the northeast (satellite IR image):

I think the NHC have dropped the idea of Hurricane Sean for this year – their forecast now keeps him as a Tropical Storm until tomorrow, when he merges with a low pressure front that’s moving eastward off the US (as you can probably tell if you live along the eastern US – it is certainly breezy and cooler in Florida this evening). I’ve heard people say that the windy weather in Florida and the choppy waters are because of the tropical storm… nope…. they are because of this front. You can see this front in the water vapor satellite image as the band of clouds that stretches from the northeast to the southwest and covers Florida:

It is a little tricky for me to see the center of circulation because he is not very well organized and it’s night now, but it looks like it might be slightly to the right of the forecast track, so it might pass a bit closer to Bermuda. It still looks like it’ll be more windy than thunderstorms over the island because the bulk of the heaviest convection is already almost due west of Bermuda.

I’ll be back tomorrow… assuming I didn’t actually swallow any metal - a bit of extra aluminium (note: correct UK spelling ;-)) or whatever it was is probably good for me anyway, right? And alcohol can be used to clean cuts can’t it? Hmm… ;-)

Adieu for now!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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