Sunday, September 29, 2013

Tropical Depression #11: September 29, Update A

Ten days since last I wrote! How time flies! Well, it's Sunday evening and time for a small bowl of Mud Pie ice cream with an Italian Waffle Cookie. Yummy!

The NHC upgraded an Atlantic blob to TD #11 yesterday, but it is rather a weak thing. It is currently around 27.2N, 46.8W and, from the satellite images, it looks like it is heading due east. Winds are officially 35mph, central pressure 1010mb. I think this might be a bit of an over-estimate on the intensity because although there is some circulation in the lowest levels of the troposphere, there is nothing in the middle troposphere. There is a non-tropical low pressure trough in the upper troposphere but with nothing much going on in the middle, it is just hanging out watching the fish swim by I expect.

There is some convection in TD#11, which is one of the reasons the NHC upgraded him from a blob to a Tropical Depression. You can see it in this infrared satellite image:

There is enough wind shear, so this convection is mostly north and east of the center of (low level) circulation.

As for the track... have you played the new Forecast Track Board Game? It came out yesterday. This is what it looks like today:

The idea is you throw 'S' chips onto a blue/green board and see if you can hit the orange thing in the middle. If you do, you get a free glass of wine. The more you win, the more challenging it gets. ;-) This slightly odd track is because he is stuck in an area of high pressure. It looks like he will continue east until tomorrow afternoon/evening... and after that I suppose it depends on whether the government shuts down or not on Tuesday, right? I'll go with them on the track.

The next name will be Jerry. This may or may not be Jerry.

Back tomorrow with more words of wit and wisdom! :-)

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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