Saturday, May 09, 2015

Tropical Storm Ana: May 9, Update A

It’s a weekend… so of course there’s a storm out there! (isn’t that how these things work?) ;-) Well this is a relatively short update because I’ve got to go and watch the next Avenger’s movie in a couple of hours (which was sold out in LA last weekend!). J

Little miss Subtropical Storm Ana is now cute little Tropical Storm Ana – she made the transition overnight. She is currently centered at 32.7N, 78W and is no finally no longer stationary! She is crawling along at 3mph in a NW direction. Although the official winds are higher than yesterday, at 60mph, making her a mid-size TS (TS range: 39-73mph), the central pressure remains at 1001 mb.
Looking at the buoys in the water out there, the strongest winds I see are around 35 mph, so this official 60mph may be a slight overestimate.
In the grand scheme of things she is not very big. You can see that in this IR satellite image of Ana and the rest of the eastern and central US:
The convection in Ana is less than the stuff (technical jargon of course ;-)) in the front at the moment. That front is moving eastward, the leading edge of which is just about reaching western Georgia and the Carolinas. Once that front gets to Ana, it will whisk her off to the north and east. She’s on track to make landfall in the Carolinas tomorrow:
Her interaction with the front will determine exactly where in the Carolinas, but that overall cone is about right.
Although sea surface temperatures are not too toasty, she is crossing the Gulf Stream which is why she has that burst of convection (orange/yellow in the IR satellite image). Once she crosses that and gets closer to the coast, that convection should decrease.
She may have made landfall by the time I can check in tomorrow… I’ll be in Hawaii to prepare for the final competition trials of the Wendy Schmidt Ocean Health XPRIZE, where 5 finalists will be tested down to 3000m depths (for more details:
Ciao for now,
Blogs archived at
Twitter @JyovianStorm
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

No comments: