Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin: October 6, Update A

Goodness me, Hurricane Joaquin is persistent, isn't he? He's still hanging in there as a Hurricane. He is actually over the Gulf Stream, so sea surface water temperatures are still higher than 26 deg C, even though he's at 39N, 56.9W (in case you hadn't noticed, that is definitely outside the tropics!). And he just went through a region of very low wind shear, which allowed him to maintain his structure. So now he's left Bermuda, where is he going? 

He is heading ENE at 23 mph towards... the UK! Da da daaah! 
Heading home for a nice cuppa tea and a jaffa cake perhaps? Or scones with clotted cream and jam. Yummy.  

He does have very good circulation in the lower and middle troposphere, and just a tad in the upper troposphere so I would classify him as a very weak cat 1 now (cat 1 range: 74-95mph), possibly with winds around 75mph (the NHC have his winds at 80 mph - I reckon that's close enough). 

He is heading into a region of higher shear, and the water temperatures will drop, so I do expect him to be a Tropical Storm sometime in the next 24 hours (in this, I agree with the NHC). You can see that he's already wilting - in fact, he's mostly blustery and the convection has already started to decrease quite a bit:

By the time he gets to the UK region, it should be a breezy sort of day with maybe a few drops of rain. Usual summertime weather really. ;-)

Time for ice cream and an episode of Poirot now I think.
Toodle pip,

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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