Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Depression 3: July 6, Update A

Not much time for dilly-dallying today, alas! So I'll jump right into the thick of things... 

Hurricane Beryl
She's still a solid little storm and was, not surprisingly, upgraded to a hurricane this morning. She is currently at 10.9N, 48.9W and heading W at 14mph. She's a fairly weak cat 1 storm at the moment with winds of 80mph (cat 1 range: 74 - 95mph) and a central pressure of 994mb. There is no eye, so I think this is a pretty good estimate of her wind speed. 

The forecast track is slightly south of where it was yesterday:

This is because of the high pressure to her north that I mentioned yesterday. I do see a little break developing in that high pressure but we'll know more about how strong that is tomorrow. For now, I think she'll continue mostly westward(ish) (staying on the southern edge of that white cone) and then start moving in a WNW direction in a day or so. There is high pressure in her path ahead, so there is a chance that she may slow down a little tomorrow for a few hours (or she may move slightly southward, but I think slowing down is the more likely option).

She is still definitely a hurricane because there is circulation throughout the entire troposphere and she is passing over an area of water where the upper ~100m is warmer than 26.5 deg C - this will keep her happy and fed until she gets into the Caribbean. However, as she moves into the Caribbean, she will also move into an area of higher wind shear so we should start to see a small decrease in intensity as she gets closer to the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean. 

Atlantic Blob
This is now Tropical Depression #3, currently centered at 32.6N, 74.1W, just off the coast of the Carolinas. A Tropical Depression is a closed circulation with winds of over 17mph. TD3 currently has winds of 30mph - when they reach 39mph, he'll get a name and become an official Tropical Storm (Chris). I think he is already a Tropical Storm - there is very good circulation in the lower troposphere, and also in the mid-troposphere which is a sign of a Tropical Storm. 

There isn't much to stop him from continuing to develop at the moment - there is no wind shear to speak of, and he is hanging out over water where the sea surface is around 29 deg C, with the upper 50-100m warmer than 26.5 deg C. The only minor blot on his landscape is some dry air to the north, but I don't think it's enough to stop us from seeing Tropical Storm Chris pop in and say hello to the fishes in the Atlantic his weekend.

More tomorrow! And it's a weekend, so you may even get a fun Science or Technical Alert! :-) 

Ciao for now,
J.   

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.
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