Tuesday, October 01, 2019

Hurricane Lorenzo: September 30, Update A

I thought we'd leave Lorenzo alone for a few days to practice some of his dance moves, and boy did he practice. He's still out there in the Atlantic but he did become a major hurricane (cat 3). He's slightly weaker at the moment due to wind shear, although still a decently strong cat 2 storm with winds of 105mph (cat 2 range: 96 - 110mph). Central pressure is 956mb. 

Lorenzo has been generally quite well behaved and is still on track to visit the Azores on Wednesday, en route to the Ireland/UK portion of the world... to weigh in on the looming Brexit fiasco, no doubt: 
He's currently at 32.0N, 41.2W, heading NE at a rapid 20mph. Interestingly, the cone of uncertainty is very narrow which means that the track forecast is good - this is good news. The more of this level of forecast there is, the sooner I can retire! ;-) 

Lorenzo remains a big boy (as we saw a few days ago) and his outer bands are already over the Azores, which are over 800 miles from his center still!

I'd agree with his cat 2 status - there is very good circulation in all levels of the troposphere, but the convection is not very symmetric around the eye and we can see that wind shear is playing a role in keeping him in check with the clouds streaming off to the north east: 

If you are on the Azores, I'm sure you know what to do! Be careful of the water - especially the storm surge and waves - the force is strong with this one.

There are a couple of other blobs in the Caribbean, but until they develop a bit, I'll just keep an eye on them.

More tomorrow, but for now, it's... Toodle pip!

Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.

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