Thursday, September 26, 2019

Tropical Storm Karen and Hurricane Lorenzo: September 25, Update A

Not much going on in the Atlantic today... well, ok, maybe that was a slight exaggeration. There's little Tropical Storm Karen and Hurricane Lorenzo. Guess which one is which? 

Ok, Lorenzo is easy - he clearly looks like a hurricane. The NHC finally upgraded him to the hurricane he so richly deserves to be. His current wind speed is 100mph, central pressure is 974mb. This makes him a weak-to-mid-size cat 2 hurricane (Cat 2 range: 96-110mph).  I think he's a little weaker than this because his eye is not fully developed, but he's definitely a hurricane so it's close enough... what's 6 or 7 mph between friends anyway? It looks like he'll topple over to being a major hurricane as a cat 3 tomorrow. I see no reason that this won't happen - there is very little wind shear, he's got some nice warm water etc. But have a look at the size of him! He's a BIG storm. From one outer-band side to the other, he would cover the entire eastern Caribbean! 

He's currently at 14.7N, 38.1W, heading WNW at 15mph, and is expected to remain in the Atlantic: 

As for TS Karen... did you find her in the infrared imagery? No? Well, have a glass of wine because that makes everything clearer. ;-) She's at 24.4N, 63.3W, heading NNE at 15mph. She's barely hanging on to that Tropical Storm status with winds of 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure of 1003mb. Actually, I don't think she's a Tropical Storm anymore - there is some circulation in the lowest levels of the troposphere, but that's all. And her convection is nothing to write home about - it's that blob north of Puerto Rico. The forecast has her meandering around in that area and fizzling out. Based on all that, this will be my last update on TS Karen. 

I'll be back in a couple of days - we'll see how Lorenzo is doing then as he is forecast to head towards the Azores around the middle of next week. By a strange coincidence, just before writing this entry, I was looking up the antipode to Sydney, Australia (as you do) and it turns out to be Relva, Azores, Portugal! If I were living in a Dirk Gently novel (Douglas Adams), I would say that's a sign that I should visit. 

Do you know where your antipode is tonight? 

And with that useless fact now stuck in your head (you can thank me when that's the winning answer to a $1m quiz that you entered), I'll be away. 

Toodle pip,

Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.

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