Tropical Storm Elsa: 4 July, Update A

Happy July 4th to those in the US - written from the UK, your friendly local provider of independence days to 58 countries. ;-)

Tropical Storm Elsa has been skirting the southern side of Cuba today and is currently at 19.8N, 77.9W, heading NW at a far more respectable 14mph:

She has been generally staying on the southern side of the cone of uncertainty and clipped Jamaica on her way to Cuba. It looks like she is still staying more on the southern side of the cone, so the downside to not traveling over land is that she is not going to fall apart as quickly as one would like, but the upside is that a lot of Cuba is spared from the brunt of the weather. Having said that, some parts are still getting a lot of rain and some thundery/tornado-like weather, as is Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 

Her winds are 60mph, central pressure is 1009mb, which makes her a mid-size Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). The circulation in the lower half of the troposphere is still very good, which means she is a Tropical Storm. I also see some circulation in the higher levels of the troposphere, but it isn't as well developed as it would be for a hurricane. This is because there is still some wind shear. However, the upper level circulation suggests that if that shear decreases (which is quite possible), she could get a bit stronger before she makes landfall in Cuba tomorrow because she is also over some very warm water with the sea surface at 29 deg C and the upper ~125 m of the water is warmer than 26 deg C. She may be at or closer to being a hurricane again at landfall in Cuba.

More tomorrow, the start of the final week at Wimbledon. There may be a tennis reference or two that will sneak in when you least suspect it. 

Ciao for now!

J. 

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DISCLAIMER:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 

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