Hurricane Milton: October 9th, Update A

With a few hours until landfall, a large region of the Florida peninsula is already feeling Tropical Storm force winds (TS range: 39-73mph) from Hurricane Milton, which extend over 200 miles from the center. Hurricane force winds are within 35 miles of the eye, and as he is about 50 miles off the coast, those winds have not yet reached the coastline. 

He is at 26.9N, 83.4W, heading NE at a very brisk 17 mph, which means he will be making landfall sometime around 9 or 10pm local time, north of Sarasota. He weakened during the day and was very asymmetrical because of the strong wind shear and also because there was dry air making it's way into the center of the storm, which caused him to weaken from that monstrous cat 5 to a cat 3. However, over the last couple of hours, the wind shear has weakened slightly and it looks like the convection has reformed around a center, so the dry air is no longer making it into the center of the storm. Officially, he is a mid-size cat 3 storm with winds of 120mph (cat 3 range: 111 - 130mph), central pressure of 948mb. 

There is a lot of very strong convection, which brings with it tornadoes as well as substantial thunderstorms. You can see these areas as the orange/red/black regions in the infrared satellite imagery:

Landfall looks like it will be somewhere north of Sarasota, but it is difficult to see where exactly relative to Tampa Bay:

Storm surge is only about 0.75 ft above normal in areas around Tampa Bay at the moment, but it is about 3 ft above normal in Fort Myers. This is because the storm is still south of Tampa - if it makes landfall to the south, the storm surge will not be too high. If it makes landfall to the north or in the Bay, then water levels will most likely rise. Surprisingly, there are no storm surge measurements available on NOAA's Tides and Currents website (https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.html) between Ft. Myers and Tampa Bay, so we don't know what the levels are in Sarasota.

Be safe!

Toodle pip,

J.

Twitter (now a 'placeholder letter') @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Milton: October 8th, Update A

This is a post in three acts: (i) a Milton update, (ii) for those who evacuated in Florida, and, (iii) for those who have hunkered down in Florida. At this point, it is almost too late to decide to evacuate because you don't want to be on the road as the weather deteriorates ahead of the storm. However, if you are in an area which is prone to flooding, please run away to higher ground (like Brave Sir Robin, Monty Python). 

(i) Milton Update: Milton is back up to being a cat 5 storm with winds of 165mph and central pressure of 918mb. He did weaken a little as he scrapped the northern edge of the Yucatan Peninsula, dropping to a cat 4 storm, but he has just officially stepped back up to cat 5 status. He is at 22.7N, 87.5W, heading ENE at 9mph and is a very robust and good looking storm:

Intensity: I mentioned yesterday the battle between the atmosphere and ocean. You can see the effects of some of that in the Infrared satellite image above. To the northeast of Milton, there is outer band which has very strong convection (which is marked by the red and black regions) - this is an area with thunder, lightening, very heavy rainfall etc. The region that outer band is going over is an area in the Gulf of Mexico which has very deep warm water - the upper 125-150m is warmer than 26 deg C. This is part of the Loop Current, which fluctuates in the northern extent it reaches into the Gulf.  So... the bad news is that Milton still hasn't got to that warm water yet - I estimate at the speed he is moving, it will take about 6-12 hours. This will allow him to grow and intensify. 

But the wind shear in the atmosphere is doing it's best to inhibit his intensification - and you can also see that in this satellite image as the clouds stream off to the northeast. 

Unfortunately, there is one more thing at play here which is also allowing him to intensify, and that is that he is not only getting his energy from the warm water, but also he is starting to get some from the atmosphere, and we can see this in the circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

Given that his winds are already 165mph, the wind shear may not have too much of an impact and he may be making landfall as a cat 4 storm. 

Track: A precise location is really tricky because Milton is moving between a larger low and high pressure, both of which are also fluctuating. The NHC said today that at 36 hours away from landfall, their track can be off by an average of ~60 nautical miles/~70 miles (1 n mi = 1.15 miles). Although the forecast track has shifted slightly to the south, that is because the models have caught up with the slightly more southerly track that Milton has taken. I do expect him to begin to head slightly more north in the next few hours, moving from the current ENE to a NE path. It will be close to Tampa Bay - and it will make a difference if it makes landfall to the south or the north. If it is to the north, more water will be pushed into the bay and storm surge will be much higher. Landfall can still be anywhere in the cone: 

In case power goes out tomorrow, I'm adding a few more bits and pieces... the biggest thing is to heed your local emergency managers - they know what's what in your local area. 

(ii) For those who evacuated: If you moved inland and are still in the cone, the storm will still be a hurricane as it passes overhead. You may lose power and amenities. Also, you may not be able to return home for a week or two (or more depending on if it is a cat 5) - until roads have been cleared, power restored etc. 

(iii) For those who hunkered down in the area of landfall: Things to be prepared for - in addition to perhaps not having power and amenities for a few weeks. During the storm, in addition to the wind, thunder, lightening, and rain, there are tornadoes - have an interior room or closet you can shelter in with supplies if there is a tornado - something away from windows. After the storm passes (or during the calm eye), be careful if you go out because there may be downed power lines in water. Cell phones may not be working for a week or more. It can be very tough in the weeks after a storm. 

I know many who have evacuated, and many who are staying. Wherever you are, please be safe!

Toodle pip, 

J. 

Twitter (now a 'placeholder letter') @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Milton: October 7th, Special Update

Dear Friends,

Well I certainly picked the wrong year to 'retire' from my hurricane blog! Oh. My. Goodness. Apparently Mother Nature was not happy about this early retirement malarky, was she? 

To those who reached out to ask about Milton... umm... it's definitely looking dodgy out there! As you know, Milton is currently at 21.8 N, 90.8 W and is moving E at 10mph. He has grown to a very strong cat 5 storm - winds are 180mph (cat 5 storm range: greater than 156 mph) and central pressure is a very low 905 mb! I would agree with this intensity - the eye is very clear, steady, and strong and has been for hours:

And the track forecast has been pretty consistent - following the flooding from Helene, this is going to be messy at any level:

Before I go into the data, here are some practical snippets and tidbits:

- Listen to your local emergency managers - they know the area you are in. Please evacuate if they tell you to. 

- Run from the water, hide from the wind. Meaning - if you live along the coast, or in an area prone to flooding, please evacuate. 

- I would also evacuate  if you are in a region experiencing a major storm - meaning if it is cat 3 or higher. Currently, the forecast to be a cat 3 on landfall. 

- Given the trajectory of the storm, if you can evacuate to the north or to the very south of the Florida peninsula that would be best. If it makes landfall as a cat 3, it may be a cat 1 by the time it gets across the state, so the middle of the state may get cat 2 winds. If it makes landfall as a stronger storm, it will, of course be stronger as it crosses the state. Generally, it drops two categories in crossing the Florida peninsula (depending on how fast it is moving). 

- If you evacuate, and you are in a region which gets a direct hit, you may not be able to get back in for a couple of weeks or longer - depending on flooding, debris, and power. 

- If you decide to evacuate, get out early. 

Now for what's happening out there.

Although he is currently a strong cat 5 storm, he is approaching the Yucatan peninsula, which will decrease his intensity slightly. He also has ahead of him a bit of a battle between the ocean and atmosphere. He will be passing over some deep warm water tomorrow (thanks to the loop current), which means he has a source of energy. However, there is also some very strong wind shear - you can already see this in the satellite imagery as the clouds are streaming off to the northeast. It looks like this wind shear may get stronger, so he will decrease in intensity, but given how strong a cat 5 he is now, he may still be a cat 4 on landfall. 

As for his track, although the center of the cone is on Tampa Bay at the moment, please keep in mind the entire cone is still a possibility for landfall. 

This is almost the strongest storm I've seen in the Gulf of Mexico - the last one was when I started the precursor updates to this blog in 2005, and that was Hurricane Wilma, which reached 185mph wind speed.

I know many of you who are evacuating, so good luck to those who are leaving, and to those who are not. I will post again tomorrow! Stay safe! 

Toodle pip!

J.

Twitter (now a 'placeholder letter') @JyovianStorm

--------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.