Hurricane Milton: October 7th, Special Update

Dear Friends,

Well I certainly picked the wrong year to 'retire' from my hurricane blog! Oh. My. Goodness. Apparently Mother Nature was not happy about this early retirement malarky, was she? 

To those who reached out to ask about Milton... umm... it's definitely looking dodgy out there! As you know, Milton is currently at 21.8 N, 90.8 W and is moving E at 10mph. He has grown to a very strong cat 5 storm - winds are 180mph (cat 5 storm range: greater than 156 mph) and central pressure is a very low 905 mb! I would agree with this intensity - the eye is very clear, steady, and strong and has been for hours:

And the track forecast has been pretty consistent - following the flooding from Helene, this is going to be messy at any level:

Before I go into the data, here are some practical snippets and tidbits:

- Listen to your local emergency managers - they know the area you are in. Please evacuate if they tell you to. 

- Run from the water, hide from the wind. Meaning - if you live along the coast, or in an area prone to flooding, please evacuate. 

- I would also evacuate  if you are in a region experiencing a major storm - meaning if it is cat 3 or higher. Currently, the forecast to be a cat 3 on landfall. 

- Given the trajectory of the storm, if you can evacuate to the north or to the very south of the Florida peninsula that would be best. If it makes landfall as a cat 3, it may be a cat 1 by the time it gets across the state, so the middle of the state may get cat 2 winds. If it makes landfall as a stronger storm, it will, of course be stronger as it crosses the state. Generally, it drops two categories in crossing the Florida peninsula (depending on how fast it is moving). 

- If you evacuate, and you are in a region which gets a direct hit, you may not be able to get back in for a couple of weeks or longer - depending on flooding, debris, and power. 

- If you decide to evacuate, get out early. 

Now for what's happening out there.

Although he is currently a strong cat 5 storm, he is approaching the Yucatan peninsula, which will decrease his intensity slightly. He also has ahead of him a bit of a battle between the ocean and atmosphere. He will be passing over some deep warm water tomorrow (thanks to the loop current), which means he has a source of energy. However, there is also some very strong wind shear - you can already see this in the satellite imagery as the clouds are streaming off to the northeast. It looks like this wind shear may get stronger, so he will decrease in intensity, but given how strong a cat 5 he is now, he may still be a cat 4 on landfall. 

As for his track, although the center of the cone is on Tampa Bay at the moment, please keep in mind the entire cone is still a possibility for landfall. 

This is almost the strongest storm I've seen in the Gulf of Mexico - the last one was when I started the precursor updates to this blog in 2005, and that was Hurricane Wilma, which reached 185mph wind speed.

I know many of you who are evacuating, so good luck to those who are leaving, and to those who are not. I will post again tomorrow! Stay safe! 

Toodle pip!

J.

Twitter (now a 'placeholder letter') @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.