This is a post in three acts: (i) a Milton update, (ii) for those who evacuated in Florida, and, (iii) for those who have hunkered down in Florida. At this point, it is almost too late to decide to evacuate because you don't want to be on the road as the weather deteriorates ahead of the storm. However, if you are in an area which is prone to flooding, please run away to higher ground (like Brave Sir Robin, Monty Python).
(i) Milton Update: Milton is back up to being a cat 5 storm with winds of 165mph and central pressure of 918mb. He did weaken a little as he scrapped the northern edge of the Yucatan Peninsula, dropping to a cat 4 storm, but he has just officially stepped back up to cat 5 status. He is at 22.7N, 87.5W, heading ENE at 9mph and is a very robust and good looking storm:
Intensity: I mentioned yesterday the battle between the atmosphere and ocean. You can see the effects of some of that in the Infrared satellite image above. To the northeast of Milton, there is outer band which has very strong convection (which is marked by the red and black regions) - this is an area with thunder, lightening, very heavy rainfall etc. The region that outer band is going over is an area in the Gulf of Mexico which has very deep warm water - the upper 125-150m is warmer than 26 deg C. This is part of the Loop Current, which fluctuates in the northern extent it reaches into the Gulf. So... the bad news is that Milton still hasn't got to that warm water yet - I estimate at the speed he is moving, it will take about 6-12 hours. This will allow him to grow and intensify.
But the wind shear in the atmosphere is doing it's best to inhibit his intensification - and you can also see that in this satellite image as the clouds stream off to the northeast.
Unfortunately, there is one more thing at play here which is also allowing him to intensify, and that is that he is not only getting his energy from the warm water, but also he is starting to get some from the atmosphere, and we can see this in the circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Given that his winds are already 165mph, the wind shear may not have too much of an impact and he may be making landfall as a cat 4 storm.
Track: A precise location is really tricky because Milton is moving between a larger low and high pressure, both of which are also fluctuating. The NHC said today that at 36 hours away from landfall, their track can be off by an average of ~60 nautical miles/~70 miles (1 n mi = 1.15 miles). Although the forecast track has shifted slightly to the south, that is because the models have caught up with the slightly more southerly track that Milton has taken. I do expect him to begin to head slightly more north in the next few hours, moving from the current ENE to a NE path. It will be close to Tampa Bay - and it will make a difference if it makes landfall to the south or the north. If it is to the north, more water will be pushed into the bay and storm surge will be much higher. Landfall can still be anywhere in the cone:
In case power goes out tomorrow, I'm adding a few more bits and pieces... the biggest thing is to heed your local emergency managers - they know what's what in your local area.
(ii) For those who evacuated: If you moved inland and are still in the cone, the storm will still be a hurricane as it passes overhead. You may lose power and amenities. Also, you may not be able to return home for a week or two (or more depending on if it is a cat 5) - until roads have been cleared, power restored etc.
(iii) For those who hunkered down in the area of landfall: Things to be prepared for - in addition to perhaps not having power and amenities for a few weeks. During the storm, in addition to the wind, thunder, lightening, and rain, there are tornadoes - have an interior room or closet you can shelter in with supplies if there is a tornado - something away from windows. After the storm passes (or during the calm eye), be careful if you go out because there may be downed power lines in water. Cell phones may not be working for a week or more. It can be very tough in the weeks after a storm.
I know many who have evacuated, and many who are staying. Wherever you are, please be safe!
Toodle pip,
J.
Twitter (now a 'placeholder letter') @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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