Hurricane Matthew and Tropical Storm Nicole: October 4, Update A

No time for dilly-dallying!

Hurricane Monster Matthew
As expected, he did decrease in intensity as his eye went over Haiti and he is just crossing the eastern tip of Cuba, which has also taken a toll on him. Although the official winds are 130mph (central pressure is 950mb), which makes him barely cat 4 storm now (cat 4 range: 130-156mph), I think he is actually weaker than that at the moment. If we look at his satellite images, the visible (which is what I look at to see if he has an eye) shows that he is eyeless...

 and backing that up, the infra-red images also show that the eye is not really well formed...

He definitely looks a lot weaker than a couple of days ago, when he was a cat 5 in the Caribbean. I would actually say that he is closer to a cat 2 than a cat 3.  His upper level vorticity (circulation) has also decreased, but not by much, which is why I would still consider him a cat 3 at the most (and really more likely a cat 2), even though there is no eye. 

He is currently at 20.4N, 74.4W, heading N at 8mph. The track has shifted to the west, alas... 

Remember, it's not the center of the cone that you should focus on! His track may be in any part of that cone... and then there are the outer bands. I would really suggest that everyone in the Florida peninsula should be ready... his track is particularly tricky and you may feel some of the outer bands if he is as intense as the NHC is thinking he will be as he leaves the Bahamas. 

So what is next? 

First, his intensity. As he emerges from Cuba in a few hours, he will be over warm water again. It is not as deep to the north of Cuba as south of these islands, but with 'only' the top 100m warmer than 26.5 deg C and weak wind shear, I think these two factors will add up to some steady/slow intensification (starting from around cat 2 though, not cat 4). Countering this is that his outer bands will still be interacting with the mountain terrains of Haiti and Cuba, which will inhibit his development.  

Overall, as he crosses from Cuba to the Bahamas, I think he may get slightly stronger. Once he gets to the Bahamas, if his eye crosses directly over any one of those islands, he will weaken a little more again. If it doesn't, then he may not get much weaker, and may continue to slowly intensify. We really need to watch his entire track through here. 

As he gets closer to Florida, he will start to interact with the Gulf Stream - a region of water where the upper 150m of the water column is warmer than 26.5 deg C... this means there is a chance of additional intensification from whatever category he is in by the time he gets there. 

Second, his track. There is an area of high pressure building up in front of him, which does mean that he will continue to move towards the west. It is difficult to say exactly which path he will take (because I don't have high quality data) so for now, I would go with the NHC (which I think may shift even farther to the west)...  everyone in eastern Florida (including the Keys) should be prepared or getting there! (and it sounds like many of you are from the notes I have been receiving today). 

Something that you should remember - "run from the water, hide from the wind". The reason for this little phrase is because the biggest cause of death in a hurricane is the water, not the wind - storm surge, flooding from heavy rain, landslides etc. This means that if you are in an area that can get flooded - along the coast for example - then please evacuate. If you are on higher ground, and this is not a cat 4 or 5, then you may want to stay put and find an interior room (no windows). Make sure you have enough to get you through a few days without power (including bug spray). The reason for not evacuating if you don't have to is because everyone else and their cat, dog, goat, and pet squirrel, will be trying to evacuate, which is also a risky proposition. 

Speaking of landslides, Haiti may have some. They don't have much vegetation keeping the soil in place, so they are prone to landslides. The other hazard facing Haiti now that the storm is on its way out are diseases, such as Cholera.

More on Matthew tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Nicole
She is at 24.2N, 61.3W, heading WNW at 6mph. Her winds are 50mph, central pressure is 1005 mb. This makes her a relatively weak Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). 

She has circulation in the lower levels of the troposphere, but although there is circulation in the middle and upper levels, it is actually connected to a front. She is pretty close to the outer bands of Matthew actually...

She doesn't have much convection in her, so I don't think she will amount to too much. She is definitely being swamped by Monster Matthew: 

But maybe we can look at her tomorrow. :-) 

Good luck out there and remember, your local Emergency Managers have the most up-to-date local information on your area so listen to them. 

Stay safe!! 
J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Matthew and the Atlantic Blobette: October 3, Update A

So sorry about the absence... it was our big XPRIZE event of the year, Visioneers 2016 - a little crazy, a lot of busy, always fun, and sleeping is for some other year! ;-) Lots of (good) exciting things are in store for our future! No Hurricane Forecast Improvement XPRIZE yet though... alas, you'll have to put up with me until then. ;-) (seriously, wouldn't it be handy to know whether a storm was going to hit a week or more in advance??!).

Hurricane Monster Matthew
He is now at 16.9N, 74.6W, heading N at 7mph. His winds of 145mph, central pressure 934mb, makes him a very strong cat 4 storm (cat 4 range: 130-156mph). 

All the data I have shows that Monster Matthew is definitely a very solid storm! The circulation (vorticity) is very very strong in the lower troposphere but also extremely strong in the upper levels of the troposphere - I would not be surprised if he was a cat 5. We haven't seen a storm this well developed in the Caribbean basin for quite some time (9 years). Here's his vorticity (circulation) at the lowest level (850mb) and at the highest level (200mb) of the troposphere:

You can see how well formed his vorticity is at all levels of the troposphere - nothing like the structure of the Atlantic Blobette which we can only see in the top image, at around 22.5N, 59W. 

His convection is also really excellent, with an eye that has persisted for days:

Again, the grey and red areas indicate very strong thunderstorms, tornadoes, the works. Not too surprising because the water underneath is very warm, with the upper 125-150m warmer than 26.5 deg C.  Wind shear is low, so that won't inhibit his development. But luckily the land interactions will! He is now beginning to interact with Jamaica and Haiti, and you can already see him weakening slightly - his eye is getting a bit blurry (from lack of sleep - just like me!). 

Because the track has shifted to the east, Jamaica is going to get away with things relatively lightly (compared to a few days ago), although the eastern edge of the island is getting a 'bit'o'weather'. Hispaniola is going to get the brunt of things, with the eye passing over the western edge of Haiti tonight/tomorrow:

If the eye does pass directly over Haiti, there is a chance he will weaken down to a strong cat 2 or weak cat 3 storm, so the eastern tip of Cuba may get away with a weaker storm. If he is slightly to the west of the forecast track, then his eye won't pass over land and he will only weaken slightly until he gets to Cuba. 

It looks like his forecast track is taking him to the eastern edge of Florida and then up the eastern US seaboard. A couple of things to note: first, he will be interacting with Haiti, Cuba, the Turks & Caicos and Bahamas. Although they don't look like much, they will be taking the edge off this storm so there is chance that he won't be as strong as he is now. Second, I don't have good pressure field data, but I think there is a good chance that he will remain on the eastern edge of that cone. 

Regardless, you guys should be prepared for some 'weather' - he is a large storm at the moment and the outer parts could decide to visit Florida unless he moves to the east.  We will know more in 24 hours - after he has crossed Haiti.

Atlantic Blobette
There is another little blobette out there - you can see her in both the lowest tropospheric level vorticity map (above - 850mb), and also in the infra-red satellite image:

Compared to Matthew, she's a dinky little thing, isn't she? She doesn't really have any circulation (vorticity) in the middle-troposphere yet - she is merely a low-level thing. If she develops, I will get back to her. The next name is: Nicole. 

And going from the atmosphere to the bottom of the ocean...  there is a lovely article in Newsweek this week on mapping the sea floor. Of course it is a lovely article... I'm in it. ;-) 

More tomorrow!
Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Matthew: September 30, Update A

Typical Murphy's Law... one of the busiest days of the year for me and Mother Nature decides that today would be a good day to have a cat 5? Really? Today? It's because NASA messed with astrology, didn't they? And now the Fates are having a field day!! Sigh. 

I agree with the NHC that Matthew is a cat 5 storm. Officially he is at 13.3N, 72.5W, heading W at 7mph. Winds are officially at 160mph!!! This is incredible for the Atlantic basin (and Caribbean). And the central pressure is down to 941mb. A category 5 storm has winds in excess of 156mph. This is the highest category because the Saffir-Simpson scale is actually a scale of the level of destruction that winds of different speeds cause (Herb Saffir was an engineer and Bob Simpson was a meteorologist). So, by definition, a category 5 means catastrophic destruction, or total annihilation if you prefer... you can't possibly get any higher level of destruction that this.

His eye is pretty impressive, and the dark grey and red areas in this infrared satellite images indicate strong thunderstorms and tornadoes - they cover many degrees of latitude... he is a big boy!

It looks like parts of Venezuela and Columbia are under some severe weather. We also know he is a strong hurricane because the vorticity (circulation) is really strong in the lower half of the troposphere, but also extremely strong in the upper troposphere. Here's the image from the top (200mb) level:

It looks like Jamaica and possibly the tip of Cuba will also be facing a major hurricane:

There is some wind shear between Matthew and Jamaica, but he is a strong storm and I don't think it will make a huge dent. The other huge factor that will keep him strong is that the sea surface is very warm, and the upper 100-175m of the water column is warmer than 26.5 deg C, so he has a lot of warm water to churn up and gobble on. 

Not the best scenario. This one looks like he is going to do some serious damage, alas. 

Stay tuned.

(Meanwhile, my busy day is because... we close the registration for Teams for the Shell Ocean Discovery XPRIZE today! and I give two presentations at Visioneers 2016 tomorrow).

More tomorrow - after the presentations I assume! 
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Atlantic Blob: September 27, Update A

I know, I know, I missed a couple - Karl and Lisa. Karl didn't look like he was going to amount to too much, although it did get a little breezy on Bermuda. And Lisa was just a little practice run really, you know, to keep people busy.  I was traveling and doing that work thing that keeps insisting on popping up every week! ;-) Alas, this is yet another very busy week for me, so these will be super short updates (thank goodness I hear you say!... that'll save you time so you can go and make another cuppa tea. ;-))

There is a Blob in the Atlantic, heading towards the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean... it looks like it is definitely a Tropical Storm to me, and possibly close to being a hurricane, although it hasn't yet been named. It will be TS Matthew soon though. There is circulation is  at all levels of the troposphere (which is why I think it is close to hurricane strength), and it is very strong in the lower levels. The piece that make me think he isn't all quite there yet is the convection, which is not as well organized:

Waters are warm, which will allow it to improve in appearance. However, there is some wind shear ahead of him, which will inhibit him. I think he will be a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm as he crosses the islands. 

Get your wellies out! and of course, stay safe! 

Ciao for now,
J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Tropical Storms Ian and Julia: September 13, Update A

Well I was going to start this post with a bit of a rant about Tropical Storms forming over land and what were they thinking... but then I looked at the data and sure enough, there she is... Tropical Storm Julia did, indeed, form over Florida. Well done Florida.

So... starting with our newest Miss Julia...

Tropical Storm Julia
She was named a Tropical Storm by the NHC this evening (11pm EST was the first advisory) and is currently at 30.3N, 81.6W, right over the center of Jacksonville. She is heading NNW at 9mph:

For those of you who have eyes, you will see that she developed over land and it looks like she will stay over land as a Tropical Storm for a day at least. She is very close to the Gulf Stream which has very deep warm water so she is going to be pulling a lot of her strength from that, which is why she looks like she has a lot of convection (but mostly over the Gulf Stream and close to the coast) as you can see in this satellite image: 

Even though her center is over land, there is a lot of wind shear which is keeping the clouds and rain to the northeast of her center and mostly over water or along the coast. It looks like NE Florida, Georgia, and S. Carolina are going to get buckets of rain along with some thundery weather (the orange and red areas in particular are strong thunderstorms). 

In this case, I agree with the NHC that she is definitely a Tropical Storm, although she barely a storm with winds of 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1009mb. The reason I would agree with the NHC on this one is because she has a vorticity (circulation) structure throughout the lower half of the troposphere that looks like a tropical storm. Here are the vorticity maps from the lowest level of the troposphere (850mb) and the middle troposphere (500mb):

The main role that Julia will play is to bring you all rain, not too much on the wind front (unless they are gusts in those strong thunderstorms). 

You may be thinking that a tropical storm forming over land has never happened before in the Entire History of History, and perhaps this is actually a sign that everyone should just abandon the State of Florida before anything really weird happens. Well you would be wrong in thinking that. This storm-forming-over-land business has happened before, and besides, I'm not sure we can truly measure what 'really weird' in Florida actually means. ;-) In 1988, Beryl became a Tropical Storm over Louisiana and in 1997, Danny became a storm over North Carolina. Florida, you are not alone. 

Tropical Storm Ian
I have a really busy day today/tomorrow/this week, so I'll just keep it light on Ian. He is still out there, and although they say he is stronger with winds of 50mph, central pressure of 998mb, he looks weaker - both in the vorticity (circulation) maps (see above - the mid-troposphere red blob that is Ian doesn't look very well defined at all), and also from his satellite imagery:

He is under that wind shear, so I expect that he will continue to struggle. But as he is far from Anywhere-in-Particular (at 27.6N, 52.8W) and heading to Nowhere-in-Particular (NNW at 13mph), I will not say too much more about him (for now).

Must run for ce soir!
A bientot,
J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Tropical Storm Ian: September 12, Update A

Tropical Storm Ian?? Ian? Really? I know a bunch of Ians and they are truly lovely chaps. Nothing as wishy-washy as a Tropical Storm! ;-) 

Nevertheless, Tropical Storm Ian is out there. He's been a blob for a few days and was upgraded to a Tropical Storm today. He is currently at 23.5N, 51.5W, heading NNW at 13mph. He is not a strong storm with winds of only 45mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and an estimated central pressure of 1005mb.

I would agree that he is a weak storm. The vorticity (circulation) is pretty good in the very lowest levels of the troposphere, but in the middle troposphere it is not very well developed, and there is nothing in the upper troposphere - although up there it looks like he will move under an area of higher vorticity that is more like a stormy front than a tropical storm.  

The satellite images are also not too impressive because he is under some pretty strong wind shear:

His entire convective activity is northeast of his center of circulation, and it is decreasing. It looks like he is moving into even stronger wind shear, so I don't know how strong he will be after another day. 

I think he is going to slow down and may actually stall for a short while. This is pretty much in keeping with the NHC official track, which shows that he is going to slow down any second now.  Ian is the Scottish version of the name 'John'.... so it's sort of fitting that he would ultimately be trying to get back to the Scotland area I suppose...

Let's see how he does after a day of wind shear first though. 

In other news... Happy Anniversary to ME! (ok, and to You :-)). I started this blog 10 years and 2 days ago and I think that calls for a celebratory toast of the liquid variety kind (not the burnt bread spread with marmalade kind - unless you are reading this over breakfast, in which case... don't burn the toast! ;-)). The inaugural entry talks about Hurricane Florence and a 6.0 magnitude earthquake in the Gulf of Mexico that happened earlier that day... might as well start with a bang, hey? ;-) 10 years, 746 posts and 120,756 website views later!! A Gaggle of History and Bunches of Storms! Not what I expected 10 years ago... so, thank you for reading, sending me reports from the ground and random funny things to share, for telling your family, friends, neighbours, pets and garden plants about this, and really making this what it is! Summing up the last 10 years in my own eloquent words: Crikey! 

Toodle Pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Lester, Post-Tropical Storm Hermine, and Tropical Storm Gaston: September 3, Update A

Just time for a quick update as there is geekery to be seen! 

Hurricane Lester - Pacific
He is passing Hawaii now and although his official winds are 85mph, central pressure 985mb, which makes him a mid-sized cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph), I think he is weaker. He no longer has a eye, so I agree that his wind speed is less than 90 mph, but his convection has deteriorated quite a lot:

He no longer has vorticity (circulation) in the upper troposphere either, which means he really isn't a hurricane. I would estimate his winds to be around 60-65mph. This decreases in his wind speed and structure is because of that wind shear I mentioned last time. 

The good news for the Hawaiian islands is that although the surf may be high, he is not actually going to impact them directly. So hopefully not too much rain either. 

This will be my last post on Lester!

Post-Tropical Storm Hermine
She is now in the Atlantic heading generally along the eastern seaboard, towards Canada, but looks like she may fizzle out before getting there:

The good news is that there is not a lot of convection left in her...

She's the mass of blue with a touch of yellow that's in the Atlantic just off New England. This means she won't bring too much rain. However, there will be a storm surge as she moves past. You can look at the water levels along the coast on the Tidesonline website that I have linked to in the previous two posts. At the moment places like Ocean City, MD are running about 2ft above normal. 

Currently her winds are 70mph, central pressure is 997mb, so she is the equivalent of a strong tropical storm, however she is 'Post-Tropical' because some of her energy is no longer from the same place that tropical storms get their energy, but rather because she is partly a front - like the winter storms you all get up there. She is currently at 36.2N, 73.3W, heading ENE at 12mph.

I will probably not post on Hermine again as she will continue to get weaker. Just watch out for that storm surge!

Tropical Storm Gaston
He zipped by the Azores, and again, fortunately he was more of a wind event than a thundery downpour event, so a nice breezy day out there, with surf!

And so, this ends my posting on Gaston too. 

Phew, what a week! Are we there yet? :-) 

Alas, not! I am watching that Atlantic Blob that is heading towards the Caribbean - a lot of rainy weather, and some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but he is still developing. I'll keep an eye on it as much as I can from this planet. Next name is Ian.  

Toodle Pip for now!!
J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricanes Hermine, Gaston, Lester, and Tropical Storm Madeline: September 1, Update A

I am sitting under the cloudy outer bands of Hermine as I write this quick update on the smorgasbord of storms du jour - they are all pretty much on schedule to do stormy sorts of things. 

Hurricane Hermine - Gulf of Mexico

Not surprisingly, she was upgraded a few hours ago to a hurricane once the hurricane hunter plane data came in. Her winds are currently 75mph, central pressure is 988mb, which makes her a weak cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). I agree with this given how her circulation (vorticity) looks throughout the troposphere at the moment - and I don't think she will get too much stronger.

She is at 28.5N, 85W, heading NNE at 14mph. It looks like she will make landfall in a few hours: 

You can see her center of circulation in the visible satellite imagery:

And the associated convection in the infrared satellite imagery, which is not very well organized but is dumping a bunch of rain onto Florida. 

She is heading directly towards the Big Bend area. It does look like the strongest winds may skirt the northern Florida coast as she heads in towards Appalachee Bay. As I said yesterday, it's not just the center of the storm but the larger area of convection to watch out for, as well as the storm surge. 

Looking at NOAA's Tidesonline (see yesterday's post for details on what the graphs mean), I see that water levels are 2.5 ft above normal and rising in Appalachicola, St. Petersburg, and Port Manatee; they are currently 3ft above normal in Clearwater; and, Cedar Key is currently around 3.5 ft above normal (it looks like Cedar Key has peaked though).

She is experiencing wind shear, which you can see because the clouds are streaming off to the northeast - as we see in the satellite imagery above because the convection is not very symmetrical around the eye. 

There is some really cool data in the Gulf off the coast that you can look at - amazingly it is being collected in the stormy choppy conditions right under Hurricane Hermine. USF's College of Marine Science/Ocean Circulation Group's COMPS mooring array shows the wind speed at their C12 mooring to be around 20m/s which is about 45mph - and this is at 27.5N, 83.7W, so around 110 miles away from the current center of the storm. 

This data is part of a Coastal Ocean Observing System being developed for the entire US coast, and is super useful in storms and in other situations. Check out the Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing System (twitter @secoora or website http://secoora.org/) for information, including high resolution storm surge models and other data for any systems from Florida to North Carolina, and the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System (http://gcoos.org/) for anything from Texas to Florida.  

Before I leave Florida, there was an explosion of an unmanned SpaceX rocket at Cape Canaveral today (alas), and it was caught on the weather radar! Check it out here (sorry about the super large size... there doesn't seem to be any control over the embedding of tweets!):

SpaceX launch site explosion in Florida being picked up on weather radar. #3Weather pic.twitter.com/4bbUM4WwLZ

— Frank Macek (@frankmacekwkyc) September 1, 2016

Hurricane Gaston - Atlantic

Officially he is now a cat 1 storm with winds of 80mph, central pressure of 984mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) and is still heading to the Azores for tomorrow, although his outer bands will be getting there a bit sooner (like right now actually):

I don't think he is a Hurricane anymore - I think he is just a Tropical Storm, and one that is caught up in a front given how he is sort of drifting like a discombobulated Dementor (Harry Potter) instead of moving with purpose like any decent tropical system would. His vorticity (circulation) is almost non-existent in the upper troposphere, although it is still strong in the lower and mid troposphere - which suggests Tropical Storm to me. Still, he has a bunch of convection in him still, so expect rain on the those islands if you are out there! 

Tropical Storm Madeline - Pacific

She is at 16.5N, 157.6W heading W at 13mph and is passing Hawaii. Winds are now 45mph, central pressure is 1004mb. She is barely a Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph) and her convection has continued to deteriorate:

As she is moving away from the islands, this is my last update on Madeline. We have Hurricane Lester close on her heels... 

Hurricane Lester

Hurricane Lester is now officially a very strong cat 2 storm with winds of 110mph, central pressure 968mb (cat 2 range: 96-110 mph). He is at 18.4N, 144.8W, heading W at 13mph (these storms do like to be consistent!). It looks like he will clip the northern edge of Hawaii on Saturday:

He has weakened a bit since yesterday - his upper tropospheric vorticity is weaker. But the wind shear around him has also died down a little, and his convection and symmetry is increasing again, so I think he may be a cat 3 storm again... he is quite good looking:

There is still some wind shear ahead of him, but that is now a day away at least alas. Will be back to talk about this one again tomorrow!

That's it for today. Clouds are getting a little darker here too... clearly it is time to go out and eat! 

Stay safe my friends!!

Ciao (chow! :-)),

J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.