Friday, August 26, 2011

Hurricane Irene and TD 10: August 26, Update B

Gotta be quick as I have about 10 minutes to do this and then I’m out of time until tomorrow.

Hurricane Irene:
I see they have progressively brought her wind speed down, so now she is a weak cat 2 with winds of 100 mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph). I think she’s a bit weaker than this, but at least they are heading in the right direction. Central pressure is 951mb. She’s at 31.7N, 77.4W, officially still maintaining that Northward heading at 14mph. However if you look at the satellite images, she’s heading NNE, so the outer banks look very likely. No eye, and the convection has decreased so most people will get a lot of rain, but not too much in the way of thunderstorms. Should be like a normal day in the UK!

The intensity as she moves north has also been downgraded. I expect it to get lower. At the moment they have a Cat 1 (range: 74-95mph) in the New York area, and I expect a Tropical Storm (39-73mph) by the time it gets to New England. Again, they are basing this on a stronger initial intensity than I think she has, so I expect it to be a Tropical Storm sooner than that. Especially as wind shear really really picks just north of Cape Hatteras!

TD 10:
This one is now apparently at 15.6N, 34.3W, moving NW at 8mph. Winds are 35mph, central pressure 1009mb. They expect it to vanish by Monday. I still disagree, but this storm has so little oomph to it that it doesn’t look like it will amount to much. ‘So little oomph’ is a technical phrase for that you can translate to this storm hasn’t eaten it’s spinach and is therefore a wimp ;-).

Bother, I have run out of time. Well, good luck and may the force be with you all!
Back tomorrow!
Toodle pip!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

1 comment:

Gruntled Guy said...

"Should be like a normal day in the UK!" Brilliant.