Tuesday, August 02, 2011

TS Emily: August 2, Update A

TS Emily continues to move westward at 14 mph and the forecast track has been shifted slightly to the left since yesterday to reflect this. In the next 12 hours they forecast her to resume a WNW track, heading towards Hispaniola. The sent in a plane this morning, and readjusted the center southeastward from its previous location, so it is now closer to 15.3N, 63.7W. It is still difficult to see the center from satellite images, so I will go with this as it seems reasonable. Her center will pass south of the US Virgin Islands, but that area will still get bits of rain (er… technical term ;-)) from the outer bands and it’ll be a bit breezy.

She hasn’t gained much in strength yet, with winds still around 40mph, central pressure 1007mb. There are some competing things at work here – there is dry air to her west and north, which will inhibit development. However, she is beginning to pull away from the Windward Islands so the land effect will decrease, and also I see that wind shear is decreasing. Given that water temperatures 28-29 deg C, with water warmer than 26 deg C in the upper 100 m, I think she will strengthen a bit today. If she continues westward for longer than they forecast, she will have a chance to strengthen because she won’t be interacting with land. However, if she makes that WNW turn, then she won’t have a chance to strengthen too much. So today we are looking at her track movements, which will determine her intensity. At the moment, I am leaning towards a more westward track (on the left edge of their cone of uncertainty), so she passes just south of Hispaniola or just clips it as she heads towards Cuba.

I’ll be back later.  Ciao for now!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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