Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Hurricane Irene: August23, Update A

A quick note for now: Irene did indeed slow down and has been impacting the Dominican Republic for over 24 hours now, but I have just seen what I was waiting for (phew) - the high pressure in front of her has been eroded. This means she will begin to speed up a bit in forward motion and move more rapidly towards (and through) the Bahamas. But I expect that this shift in pressure also means that she will probably stay out in the Atlantic. It looks to me like there’s a good chance she will not make landfall along the eastern seaboard of the US. I expect that track that currently takes her to the Carolinas to keep shifting to the right and I also expect her to take a more northerly turn (i.e. move NW instead of WNW). I know a lot of people all along the eastern seaboard are getting ready, and I think that’s a prudent thing to do. I don’t think she’ll manage to swing over as far as Bermuda, but you guys on Bermuda should watch her carefully just in case.

My ideal scenario now is that she takes a NW turn today, then N, then NE, so she only skirts the right side of the Bahamas, and then heads out into the Atlantic, steering clear of Bermuda as well. I’ll give her a call and see if she will oblige. ;-)

The impact with the Dominican Republic has taken a bit of steam out of her and her convection has weakened (for now). I don’t think she’s quite a category 2 (cat 2 range: 96-110ph), but is certainly a good category 1 (range: 74-95mph), and there was some doubt about the strength of her winds on the NHC site this morning as well. I see an eye beginning to develop, which suggests winds of maybe 90-100mph, so I don’t know if they will bother to downgrade her because they have her at the higher end of that envelope. She will get more intense as she gets closer to the Florida Current/Gulf Stream. The one good piece is that because she stayed closer to the Dominican Republic, the brunt of the rain was on the east side of Hispaniola and Haiti was spared.

She’s currently at around 20.7N, 71.2W, moving WNW at 10mph. Winds are 100mph, so still holding as a weak-to-mid intensity cat 2, and central pressure is 977mb.

More later!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Glad to see that you have decided to use your superpowers (and successfully). The thankful SV Arcturus and her cringing owners thank you. Red or white?