Sunday, August 07, 2011

TD Emily II, Electric Bugaloo... August 6, Update A

Just like The Terminator, Emily is back. Actually she didn’t really ever go away, she just put on a cloak of invisibility. Her circulation  stayed strong even though she hasn’t had much convection to speak of (well, other than over Cuba and the Bahamas, which got more than a few raindrops on roses). (Apparently that niggling thing in my head that I mentioned in my previous update was not a crayon after all ;-) (The Simpsons)). As she moved northwards and more-or-less cleared the Bahamas, she gained access to all that lovely warm, deep Gulf Stream water to feed from… it’s tropical storm chocolat! Yum! So, quite predictably (in some circles), now we are seeing an increase in convection. This rain will fall mostly on the plane over southern and eastern Florida, although those of us on the west coast might get some rain and clouds tomorrow. The latest IR satellite image shows the solid area of convection that has popped up in the past few hours:

With the relatively low winds, I think this will make some people along the east coast happy because they were asking for a ‘nice’ storm with a bit-o-rain (although I don’t think it will get to you guys in North Carolina).

After sending a plane into the system, they reclassified her as a Tropical Depression in the 5pm advisory today with winds of 35mph, central pressure 1011mb. Currently her center is at 27.4N, 78.2W, which puts her about 70 miles NNE of Freeport, Grand Bahama. She is officially moving northward at 8mph. It’s night-time, so I can’t really assess where her center is and whether it is going northward or perhaps a little more north-by-northwest and closer to Florida (for a short while) before heading north and north east into the Atlantic, so I will go with the NHC numbers for now. About her intensity: there is some wind shear, but once that dies down (it looks like tomorrow) she will have a chance to intensify a bit more (but still remain a Tropical Storm – mostly a rain event). I think she’s already strong enough to be a weak Tropical Storm Emily II (you know that generally the sequels aren’t as good as the originals), especially as she’s over the Gulf Stream, but officially she’s just a Tropical Depression.

Speaking of sequels… can you name the movie references in this update? ;-)

Good night and Good Luck!

Blogs archived at
Twitter @JyovianStorm

DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

1 comment:

Rocks In Her Head said...

Sound of Music...