Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Tropical Storm Katia: August 30, Update A

I'm on another planet so not much time to dilly dally today either, alas.
Tropical Storm Katia is cooking nicely. Officially she has winds of 60mph (TS range: 39-73mph), so she is a mid-size Tropical Storm, central pressure 997mb. SHe is at 12.7N, 35.4W, heading WNW at 20mph. Her track has shifted slightly southwards since yesterday, and I think it will continue in that vein for now and of course if this pans out, it means she will be closer to the VIs than initially forecast.
The NHC have her as a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. I am not 100% sure of this yet. Although she has good circulation in the lowest half of the troposphere, I do not see any sign of circulation in the upper troposphere. Also, her lower level convergence (inflow) and upper level divergence (outflow) are not very well developed. Both of these indicate that she doesn't have a good structure (at the moment). However, wind shear is low and will remain low for at least a day if not longer. Also, she is in the tropics, so sea surface temperatures are warm. She certainly has the buffet she needs to put on a few pounds.
More later tomorrow.
Ciao for now!
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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