Monday, August 29, 2011

Tropical Depressions Jose and 12: August 29, Update A

"A distressingly busy day with little time for sloth or idleness" (Oscar Wilde)... fortunately we don't have much going on out there. It's all depression this, depression that.

Jose was downgraded to a Tropical Depression this morning and is just a cloud in the minds eye now. Somewhere way up there in the North Atlantic. The NHC issued their last advisory on him at 11am this morning, when he was at 39.5N, 63.1W, moving NNE at 29mph. Winds were 30mph, central pressure 1009mb.

The Atlantic Blobette is now Tropical Depression 12 (it was upgraded yesterday). It has remained as a TD all day today, and doesn't look like it's going anywhere fast. Convection is really super weak. It is currently at 10.2N, 29.4W, moving W at 14mph. Winds are 35mph, central pressure is 1008mb. They do forecast this to be a hurricane by Thursday afternoon. It is a bit far on the eastern side of the Atlantic for me to get a good reading on, but it looks like wind shear is a little strong so the convection is all to the west of the center of circulation. The circulation is much improved in the lower troposphere today, so once that convection gets itself sorted out, I expect this to be a Tropical Storm at least. The current forecast track takes it in a WNW and NW direction, so it is east of the VIs (by a few hundred miles) on Saturday afternoon. I think that it will carry on in a more westward direction for longer than the forecast tracks show, so it will be south of there.

That's it for today. I'll return when we have another TS on our hands.

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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