Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Tropical Storm Gert and the Caribbean Blob: August 16, Update A

A note with my morning cuppa tea. J

TS Gert officially has winds of 45mph, central pressure of 1005mb and is at around 36.4N, 59.6W heading NE at 22mph. I don’t think there’s really much left of this storm. The convection is practically non-existent and the vorticity (circulation) is decreasing. It looks like the NHC are forecasting to downgrade her tomorrow, but I don’t think there’s anything that indicates she’s that strong so this is my last entry on Gert.

The Caribbean Blob is still one I’m watching. The NHC currently have this at a 20% chance of developing into a TS in the next 48 hours. This is possible, but at the moment I wouldn’t be totally surprised if we have a TS within 48 hours. The vorticity is actually a little stronger in this one than in Gert, all it needs is a new outfit and a few clouds with rain and it’s good to go. We’ll see how quickly it picks those up – it has already changed in appearance over the last few hours with those thundery clouds developing just north of its center of circulation. It is moving westward at somewhere around 15-20 mph. What is really remarkable is that despite the low convection, you can already see a clear outer band in the satellite IR image. It stretches from South America all the way north past the Dominican Republic. Very pretty.

More when something happens!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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