Saturday, November 03, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Extratropical Storm Noel: November 3, Update A

I didn't send anything out yesterday because there was no change from
the forecast track or intensity from the day before. He is now an
extra-tropical storm, and handsome looking one at that - complete with
an eye. Oddly, the NHC decided to stop issuing advisories on this system
yesterday afternoon, even though the outer edges of this system are
being felt along the eastern sea-board. I don't recall them ever
stopping this early, even for an extratropical storm... maybe I've
entered the Twilight Zone (appropriately enough given the proximity to
Halloween - insert spooky music)... anyway, I will continue...

He is currently centered at about 36N, 71W, more or less due west of
Maryland, and is heading in a general north-eastward direction. There is
a chance that the center will clip the outer edges of Nova Scotia. He is
currently over the Gulf Stream and in a relatively weak wind shear
environment. The circulation is really strong at all but the upper
levels of the atmosphere.

Most of the moisture associated with this system is now to the north and
west of the eye, so for those of you in New York, Boston and north, the
clouds and possible rain you are experiencing today are part of the
outer bands of Noel. It doesn't look too bad from the satellite images
though. Just leave the sun glasses at home :)

What the NHC is doing though, to keep themselves busy, is keeping an eye
on a low pressure system off the coast of Nicaragua in the Caribbean. It
has some convection and a little bit of low-level circulation but that's
about it. It's just a "blob" (technical term for those who have recently
joined this list :) ) at the moment.

That's all for today. I think. Have fun whatever you are doing :)

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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