Thursday, November 01, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: November 1, Update A

Goodness me... I don't know what the Bahamas did to deserve this storm,
but they've been under heavy rainfall and thunderstorms for the past
three days. However, the end is in sight (although the sun may not yet
be in sight for them). Noel has picked up speed (14mph forward motion)
and has changed direction from northward to
north-northeastward/north-eastward, as expected, and is moving away from
Cuba and Florida. His center is currently in the Bahamas (north of
Nassau). All Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been lifted for

There is still a lot of convection with this system, and the winds are
now at 65mph. He might intensify a bit more because he's still over warm
waters (>28 deg C), but there is some moderate wind shear. After he's
crossed the island chain the temperatures are a little cooler (~27 deg
C), but still warm enough to sustain the storm. Although the center of
circulation is no longer as removed from the convective activity as it
was yesterday it is still on the south-western side of that activity -
so most of that convection is still to the north and east.

Unfortunately, the death toll from Hispaniola is not good - at least 90
people, with dozens still missing. They may be retiring the name "Noel"
after this year. We'll see what shape the Bahamas are in once they
emerge from behind the clouds. Hopefully not as bad.

More later...

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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