Saturday, June 26, 2010

TD1: June 26, Update A

Formerly known as the Caribbean Blob, this is now officially a weak Tropical Depression which means it has closed circulation and winds of under 39 mph. It is moving WNW at 9mph, with 1004mb central pressure. It's just north of Honduras, centered at 16.7N, 84.4W, and is, indeed, heading for the Yucatan Peninsula where it will make landfall tonight. The NHC think it will reach Tropical Storm strength before then, and retain that intensity as it crosses the landmass and into the Gulf. I have no doubt it will reach Tropical Storm strength (Alex), but I don't think it will survive the crossing so easily. It may even become a weak hurricane before getting to the Yucatan because it is over warm water (26.5 deg C in the upper 80-100m), but on the other hand, it is interacting with the central American landmass to the south, which may inhibit that development.

That's all I have time for on this for now! I'll check in once it's got to the Yucatan Peninsula.

Toodle pip!

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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